Simulating land use change for sustainable land management in China's coal resource-based cities under different scenarios

Li, Shengpeng; Cao, Yingui; Liu, Jianling; Wang, Shufei

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170126

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In 2021, Liang Xun [20] proposed a new framework dubbed the PLUS model for mining land-use change rules. Researchers have extensively utilized the PLUS model because of its ability to simulate and forecast urban land use in various scenarios, assess the worth of ecological services, and incorporate ecosystem services [21,22].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Megacities and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services and Modeling Prediction

Yan,

Huang,

Tang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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Under the background of rapid urbanization, strengthening the research on the response and dynamic mechanism of ecosystem services to land use is conducive to the optimization of land space and ecological restoration and governance in megacities. Using Hefei City as a case study, we examined specific ecosystem services and analyzed how water yield, habitat quality, carbon storage, and soil conservation changed over time from 2000 to 2020. We utilized spatial information technology and the InVEST model to assess these changes. Additionally, we developed a comprehensive ecological service index (CES) and used Geodetector and regression models to investigate how ecosystem services responded to land use. In addition, we utilized the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation Model (PLUS) to simulate the spatial distribution of land use in 2030. This was performed under four different scenarios: natural development (ND), urban development (UD), cultivated land protection (CP), and ecological protection (EP). Furthermore, we assessed the effects of these land-use changes on ecosystem service functions by integrating the PLUS results with InVEST. The findings indicate the following: (1) between 2000 and 2020, farmland consistently remained the dominant land-use type in Hefei City while construction land experienced significant growth. Land-use conversion was prevalent during this period, and each ecological indicator exhibited noticeable geographic variation; (2) during the past 20 years, the comprehensive ecosystem service index (CES) exhibited clear spatial clustering patterns. The different types of land use showed significant quantitative relationships with CES. Specifically, cultivated land, forest land, grassland, and water area had positive correlations, while construction land had a negative correlation. Geodetector analysis revealed that the proportion of ecological land use had the greatest impact on the spatial differentiation of CES, followed by population density; (3) according to the PLUS simulation, the UD scenario results in a significant conversion of cultivated land and grassland into construction land, leading to the greatest decrease in CES. In the ND scenario, the areas with decreasing CES are mostly areas that have been converted from other land types to construction land. In contrast, the EP scenario shows an increase in forest land and grassland, which promotes the enhancement of multiple ecosystem service functions simultaneously. This indicates that the EP scenario is the most favorable for sustainable land-use development. The study investigates the impact of land-use changes on ecosystem services and evaluates the sustainability of regional land use. The findings have both theoretical and practical significance for effectively managing land use and regulating ecological functions in large cities.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Study on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Megacities and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services and Modeling Prediction

Yan,

Huang,

Tang

et al. 2024

Sustainability

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…The results of the above scenario simulation show that the range of LUCC will increase between 2040 and 2100, promoting the conversion of grassland and farmland into forestland and built-up land. The scale of mutual conversion of farmland, grassland, and forestland has increased, mainly occurring around human settlements on both sides of the Bailong River [43]. Research shows that under the SSP126-EP scenario, ecological projects such as "natural forest protection" and "returning farmland to forest and grassland" promote ecological protection in the Bailongjiang River Basin, which also leads to the conversion of farmland into forestland and water bodies [44].…”

Section: Lucc Prediction Based On Ssp-rcp Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Streamflow Variation under Climate Conditions Based on a Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model: A Case Study of the Bailong River Basin

Li,

Zhou,

Yue

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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We coupled the global climate models (GCMs) from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and Future Land Use Simulation model (FLUS) to evaluate land use change in the Bailong River Basin (BRB) under three shared socioeconomic pathway and representative concentration pathway scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP5–8.5). Additionally, we used calibrated soil and water assessment tools (SWATs) to evaluate the streamflow in the BRB from 2008 to 2100 under the combined influence of climate and land use changes. The results indicate that (1) under the SSP126-EP scenario, forests have been well preserved, and there has been an increase in the combined area of forests and water bodies. The SSP245-ND scenario has a similar reduction pattern in agricultural land as SSP126-EP, with relatively good grassland preservation and a moderate expansion rate in built-up land. In contrast, the SSP585-EG scenario features a rapid expansion of built-up land, converting a significant amount of farmland and grassland into built-up land. (2) From 2021 to 2100, the annual average flow increases under all three scenarios, and the streamflow change is most significant under SSP5–8.5. (3) Compared to the baseline period, the monthly runoff increases, with the most significant increase occurring during the summer months (June to August). This study offers a thorough assessment of potential future changes in streamflow. Its findings are expected to be applied in the future to improve the management of water resources at a local level.

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Spatio-temporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and simulation of land use and cover in China from 2000 to 2060

Chen,

Liu,

Chen

et al. 2024

Appl. Spatial Analysis

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Simulating land use change for sustainable land management in China's coal resource-based cities under different scenarios

Cited by 5 publications

References 45 publications

Study on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Megacities and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services and Modeling Prediction

Study on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Megacities and Its Impact on Ecosystem Services and Modeling Prediction

Streamflow Variation under Climate Conditions Based on a Soil and Water Assessment Tool Model: A Case Study of the Bailong River Basin

Spatio-temporal evolution, driving mechanisms, and simulation of land use and cover in China from 2000 to 2060

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