Simulating Immunization Campaigns and Vaccine Protection Against COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil

Abstract

The vaccine roll-out has currently established a new trend in the fight against COVID-19. In many countries, as vaccination cover rises, the economic and social disruptions are being progressively reduced, bringing more confidence and hope to the population. However, a crucial debate is related to fair access to vaccines, which would lead to stepping up the pace of vaccination in developing countries. Another important issue is how immunization has influenced the control of the infection, deaths, and transmissibility of the new coronavirus in these countries. In this work we investigate the effects of the rate of vaccination on the COVID-19 epidemic curves, by employing a new data-driven methodology, formulated on the basis of a modified Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model and Machine Learning designs. This data-driven methodology is applied to assess the influence of the vaccines administered in Brazil, on the fight against the virus. The impacts of vaccine efficacy and immunization speed are also explored in our study. Finally, we have found that the use of anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccines with a low/moderate efficacy can be offset by immunizing a larger proportion of the population more quickly.

Space-Distributed Traffic-Enhanced LSTM-Based Machine Learning Model for COVID-19 Incidence Forecasting

“…Te authors in [10] also proposed a hybrid model that enhanced the predictions provided by the SIR epidemic model by tracking the changes in the policies implemented at the government level, which were used to estimate the time-varying parameters of an SIR model for forecasting the number of new infections one to four weeks in advance. Te research in [11] uses a datadriven approach to incorporate the efects of the rate of vaccination on the COVID-19 epidemic curves on the basis of a modifed susceptible-infected-recovered model enhanced by machine learning designs. Te data-driven methodology is applied to assess the infuence of the vaccines administered in Brazil on the fght against the virus.…”

Parameter Identification Problem in the Discrete-time Sir Model

“…The basic reproduction number is also estimated in [7,23,27], but this time based on the least square method. Different techniques to estimate several parameters from real data are considered in the literature, as statistical based arguments [2,3,4], machine learning [5,6], or genetic algorithms [1]. See also [9,25] for interesting considerations and other approaches.…”