Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

Perry, Russell W.; Risley, John C.; Brewer, Scott J.; Jones, Edward C.; Rondorf, D.W.

doi:10.3133/ofr20111243

Cited by 13 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…Second, the positive relationship between temperature differential and refuge use, which could be attributed to fish gaining greater relative physiological benefit from refuges created by cooler tributaries, emphasizes the importance of maintaining good riparian habitat along stream corridors. These considerations are particularly relevant on the Klamath River, given the planned removal of the four lowest mainstem dams in 2020, which would open up over 550 km of upstream habitat for anadromous salmonids, and is projected to decrease mainstem temperatures by approximately 2-48C in late summer and early fall months (Goodman et al 2011, Perry et al 2011. Klamath River mainstem temperature increased at approximately 0.58C per decade between 1962 and 2001 (Bartholow 2005), and additional future warming will likely cause the number of days when temperatures exceed 258C to increase.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐temporal temperature variation influences juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) use of thermal refuges

Brewitt¹,

Danner²

2014

Ecosphere

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Citation: Brewitt, K. S., and E. M. Danner. 2014. Spatio-temporal temperature variation influences juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) use of thermal refuges. Ecosphere 5(7):92. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00036.1Abstract. Thermal refuges form potentially critical habitat for species at the limits of their thermal tolerance, especially given large-scale habitat degradation and rising temperatures across ecosystems. The Klamath River is a highly altered system where summer mainstem temperatures reach levels that are physiologically stressful to threatened Pacific salmonid populations, making thermal refuges critical for over-summer survival when temperatures near upper thermal thresholds. Small changes in water temperature can have a large effect on salmonid growth and survival, and therefore fine-scale spatiotemporal temperature variation could influence when and where refuges are important for both individual survival and population persistence. In this study, we combined monitoring of environmental variables with measures of fish temperature (a proxy for refuge use) to quantify juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) use of thermal refuges. We used a logistic mixed effects model to determine the relative influence of instantaneous mainstem temperature and flow, sub-daily temperature variation, body size, and time of day on steelhead refuge use. Mainstem temperature was the strongest predictor of refuge use; the majority (.80%) of juvenile steelhead moved into refuges when mainstem temperatures reached 22-238C, and all fish moved in by 258C. Fish were more likely to use refuges with increased diel mainstem temperature variation and larger temperature differential between the mainstem and tributary. In addition, steelhead exhibited a distinct diel behavioral shift in refuge use that varied with body size; smaller juveniles (;160 mm) were much more likely to use refuges during the night than day, whereas larger juveniles (;210 mm) exhibited a much less pronounced diel behavioral shift. Given impacts of watershed alteration and climate change and the growing importance of refuge habitat, these findings suggest that species persistence may depend on extremely fine-scale spatial and temporal temperature dynamics.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spatio‐temporal temperature variation influences juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) use of thermal refuges

Brewitt¹,

Danner²

2014

Ecosphere

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“…19.2) for each of three climate scenarios (min, median and max) for each GCM (Table 19.1, Perry et al 2011). …”

Section: Environmental Data Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…19.1). The ensemble includes: (1) GCMs to predict future air temperatures and precipitation patterns (Table 19.1) and a fine-scale climate change model to predict future stream temperatures and discharge in the Klamath River (Perry et al 2011), (2) polychaete models to predict changes in invertebrate host populations under different discharge scenarios (Wright et al 2014;Alexander et al unpub. data), (3) a degree-day model to predict C. shasta spore viability and number of annual generations under different temperature scenarios (Chiaramonte 2013), and (4) an epidemiological model to predict how C. shasta dynamics may respond to future climate scenarios (Ray 2013;Ray et al unpub.…”

Section: Case Study: Ceratonova Shasta and The Future Klamath River Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…data). The first model (Perry et al 2011) used downscaled GCM data to provide water temperature and discharge data for the Klamath River and the latter three models are derived from empirical data. Below, we describe each model, the inputs and outputs for each model, and how these outputs are used in the epidemiological model to predict changes in C. shasta dynamics under the different future climate scenarios.…”

Section: Case Study: Ceratonova Shasta and The Future Klamath River Bmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Future (2012-2061) Klamath Basin water temperature and discharge values were estimated from a calibrated one-dimensional water model (RBM10, Perry et al 2011). This RBM10 model was developed using data from GCMs (*275 km 2 ) downscaled to provide more refined watershed-specific estimates (270 m 2 ) as described by Flint and Flint (2008).…”

Section: Environmental Data Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Disease Severity: A Case Study of Ceratonova (syn Ceratomyxa) shasta in the Klamath River

Ray

Alexander

Leenheer

et al. 2015

Myxozoan Evolution, Ecology and Development

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Shifts in future temperature and precipitation patterns will have profound effects on host-parasite interactions and the dynamics of disease in freshwater systems. The aims of this chapter are to present an overview of myxozoan disease dynamics in the context of climate change, and to illustrate how these might be predicted over the next several decades by developing a case study of disease dynamics of Ceratonova (syn Ceratomyxa) shasta in the Klamath River, California USA. Our case study introduces a model ensemble for predicting changes in disease dynamics under different climate scenarios (warm/dry, moderate/median, and cool/wet) from 2020 to 2060. The ensemble uses Global Circulation Models (GCMs) and basin scaled models for the Klamath River to generate predictions for future water temperature and river discharge. The environmental data are used as inputs for a predictive model and a degree day model to simulate effects of climate change on polychaete host populations and on C. shasta spore viability, respectively. Outputs from these models were then used to parameterize an epidemiological model to predict changes in disease dynamics under each climate scenario. The epidemiological model outputs were measured against baselines established using real data for low (2006), high (2008) and intermediate (2011) disease risk years. In general, the epidemiological model predicts that except for infrequent high discharge years, C. shasta dynamics will be

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Habitat fragmentation drives divergent survival strategies of a cold‐water fish in a warm landscape

et al. 2023

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Climate change is a global phenomenon, but natural selection occurs within landscapes. Many global analyses predict how climate change will shape behavior and physiology, but few incorporate information from the landscape scales at which animals actually respond to selective pressure. We compared cold‐water fish (redband trout Oncorhynchus mykiss newberrii) from neighboring habitats in a naturally warm, recently fragmented basin to understand how different responses to warming may arise from landscape constraints. Trout in warm, hydrologically connected Upper Klamath Lake fled summer temperatures and sought refuge in cool tributaries, while trout in an equally warm but fragmented reach of the Klamath River endured summer conditions. Trout in the river were more physiologically tolerant of high temperatures than trout in the lake across multiple metrics, including capacity for aerobic activity, recovery from exertion, and loss of equilibrium. Two independent metrics of energetic condition indicated that the behavioral strategy of trout in the lake came at a substantial energetic cost, while the physiological strategy of trout in the river was able to mitigate most energetic consequences of high temperatures. No clear genetic basis for increased tolerance was found in trout from the river, which may suggest tolerance was derived from plasticity, although our analysis could not rule out genetic adaptation. Our results show that landscape processes such as fragmentation can cause different climate survival strategies to emerge in neighboring populations. Connecting the mechanisms that favor similar survival strategies among related organisms at broad scales with mechanisms that drive landscape‐scale variability within taxa should be a major goal for future predictions of biological responses to climate change.

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Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

Cited by 13 publications

References 4 publications

Spatio‐temporal temperature variation influences juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) use of thermal refuges

Spatio‐temporal temperature variation influences juvenile steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) use of thermal refuges

Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Disease Severity: A Case Study of Ceratonova (syn Ceratomyxa) shasta in the Klamath River

Habitat fragmentation drives divergent survival strategies of a cold‐water fish in a warm landscape

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