Simulating COVID-19 classroom transmission on a university campus

Abstract

Significance This paper simulates the spread of COVID-19 at universities via airborne transmission in classroom settings. The transmission risk model used for these simulations accounts for student-specific class schedules, classroom sizes and occupancy, and ventilation rates, as well as vaccination rate and efficacy. We show the simulations reproduce trends observed in weekly infection rates at a large US university. We also evaluate the impact of campus operational policies. Model predictions show moving 90% of classes online can reduce new infections by as much as 18 × , and universal mask usage can reduce new infections by up to 3.6 × . For full-time in-person instruction, high vaccination rates are predicted to curb transmission even for more contagious variants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

Incorporating social determinants of health into transmission modeling of COVID-19 vaccine in the US: a scoping review

“…The study setting was the US in 80 studies, and the US combined with other countries in 12 studies. 16 , 17 , 18 , 19 , 20 , 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 The target population was the general population in 68 studies and specific sub-populations in 24 studies, including university population (n = 11), 28 , 29 , 30 , 31 , 32 , 33 , 34 , 35 , 36 , 37 , 38 school population (n = 5), 39 , 40 , 41 , 42 , 43 congregation setting population (n = 5), 44 , 45 , 46 , 47 , 48 children (n = 2), 18 , 49 and wildland firefighting workforce (n = 1). 50 Vaccine intervention strategies were studied interventions in 69 studies, and vaccines combined with other strategies (including non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and screening) in 23 studies.…”

Evaluating the COVID-19 Containment Protocol in Greek Universities for the Academic Year 2021–2022

“…In general, there is a lack of empirical data in a university environment about the efficacy of the individual NPIs involved, but it is beyond doubt that they reduced COVID-19 transmission. Focusing on mask usage, some first results indicate a reduction between 2.7 and 3.6 times in new infections through classroom interactions [ 7 , 13 ]. The extreme usefulness of mask-wearing was proven in the examined case, since during the time period it was mandatory, the rise in the Omicron variant did not increase the risk of in-class transmission and there was no concrete evidence that any confirmed cases were infected inside the classroom.…”

“…In the first category, efforts were made to assess the control plans used for reopening universities (e.g., Boston University in [ 4 ], Harvard/Boston/Duke/Northeastern in [ 5 ], Bristol (UK) in [ 6 ], Southern California in [ 7 ], Purdue in [ 8 ], Tulane in [ 9 ], Clemson in [ 10 ]); or to develop relevant susceptible–exposed–infected–recovered (SEIR) or agent-based (ABM) models in a university environment (e.g., Emory University in [ 11 ], University of Illinois in [ 12 ]). In the second category, research was focused on studying how COVID-19 containment protocols decreased transmission among university students (e.g., Saint Louis University in [ 13 ], Boston University in [ 14 ]) and to assess how the Omicron variant was established in universities (e.g., Harvard/Boston/Northeastern in [ 15 ], University of Washington in [ 16 ]).…”

Dynamic Contact Networks in Confined Spaces: Synthesizing Micro-Level Encounter Patterns Through Human Mobility Models from Real-World Data

“…The dynamics of disease spreading in various indoor environments has also been explored by several studies using sophisticated simulation techniques [13][14][15][16]. Notably, these investigations have aimed to provide insights into transmission patterns and infection potentials in specific settings where a high amount of information is available.…”