Simulated herring growth responses in the Northeastern Pacific to historic temperature and zooplankton conditions generated by the 3-dimensional NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model

Rose, Kenneth A.; Werner, Francisco E.; Megrey, Bernard A.; Aita, Maki Noguchi; Yamanaka, Yasuhiro; Hay, D. E.; Schweigert, J. F.; Foster, M.

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2006.06.020

Cited by 44 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Although the ecology and physiology of chum salmon differ from those of saury, these values are supported to be useful to the other species in the Northern Pacific (Megrey et al, 2007a,b;Rose at al., 2007), thus we used the same values.…”

Section: Respiration and Metabolism Rmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of climate change on the growth of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) using a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO)

Kishi

Kaeriyama

Ueno

et al. 2010

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

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From the 1970s to 1990s, a reduction in the body size of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) was observed. To investigate this body size reduction in the North Pacific, we developed a bioenergetics model for chum salmon coupled with the results from a lower trophic ecosystem model embedded into a three-dimensional global model. In the bioenergetics model, respiration and consumption terms are assumed to be functions of water temperature and prey zooplankton density, which are the determining factors of the reduction of body size. The model reproduced the body size of the 1972 and 1991 year classes of chum salmon. The reproduced body size of the 1972 year class was larger than that of 1991 year class, and this result agrees with observations from the Bering Sea. Our model also reproduced the body size trend from l970 to 2000. The prey density, especially in the eastern North Pacific, had a greater influence on the change of body size than did the SST. This suggests that the size reduction of Japanese chum salmon in the 1990s was partly affected by changes in prey zooplankton density. In the context of the global warming scenario, we discuss changes in the migration route of chum salmon and predict that the population of Japanese chum salmon experience significant declines over this century.

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Section: Respiration and Metabolism Rmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of climate change on the growth of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) using a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO)

Kishi

Kaeriyama

Ueno

et al. 2010

Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography

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show abstract

“…It is important that model estimates of the production of large zooplankton be accurate because this functional group often forms the primary link to higher trophic levels (e.g., fish as added to the NEMURO model by Megrey et al, 2006 andRose et al, 2006b; this issue). In ecosystems where autotrophic picoplankton are particularly important, the microbial food web could be better simulated by including separate picoplankton, nanophytoplankton, heterotrophic flagellates and microzooplankton groups (e.g., Le Quéré et al, 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…We included ZP in NEMURO to get a more accurate representation of the biomass of ZL, which plays an important role in lower trophic ecosystems in the Northern Pacific, as well as to represent a suitable prey functional group for the higher trophic level linkages (see Megrey et al, 2006, this issue;Rose et al, 2006b, this issue).…”

Section: Model Descriptionmentioning

confidence: 99%

NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem

Kishi

Kashiwai

Ware³

et al. 2007

Ecological Modelling

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The PICES CCCC (North Pacific Marine Science Organization, ClimateChange and Carrying Capacity program) MODEL Task Team achieved a consensus on the structure of a prototype lower trophic level ecosystem model for the North Pacific Ocean, and named it the North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography, "NEMURO". Through an extensive dialog between modelers, plankton biologists and oceanographers, an extensive review was conducted to define NEMURO's process equations and their parameter values for distinct geographic regions. We present in this paper the formulation, structure and governing equations of NEMURO as well as examples to illustrate its behavior. NEMURO has eleven state variables: nitrate, ammonium, small and large phytoplankton biomass, small, large and predatory zooplankton biomass, particulate and dissolved organic nitrogen, particulate silica, and silicic acid concentration. Several applications reported in this issue of Ecological Modelling have successfully used NEMURO, and an extension that includes fish as an additional state variable. Applications include studies of the biogeochemistry of the North Pacific, and variations of its ecosystem's lower trophic levels and two target fish species at regional and basin-scale levels, and on time scales from seasonal to interdecadal.5

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“…Modeling by Rose et al (2007) illustrates how temperature and other oceanic factors can influence weight at age and recruitment in herring populations. Oceanic factors have been found to influence herring recruitment in Alaska (Collie 1991;Williams and Quinn 2000a, b;Zebdi and Collie 1995).…”

Section: Poor Nutrition and Oceanic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hypotheses concerning the decline and poor recovery of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska

Pearson¹,

Deriso

Elston³

et al. 2011

Rev Fish Biol Fisheries

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This paper updates previous reviews of the 1993 stock decline of Pacific herring (Clupea pallasi) in Prince William Sound, Alaska, and focuses on hypotheses about subsequent poor recovery. Recent age structured assessment modeling with covariate analysis indicates that the population dynamics of the sound's herring are influenced by oceanic factors, nutrition, and, most substantially, hatchery releases of juvenile pink salmon. For the 1993 decline, poor nutrition remains the most probable cause with disease a secondary response. Concerning poor recovery, we examined 16 potential factors and found three to be causal: oceanic factors, poor nutrition, and hatchery releases of juvenile pink salmon. Absences of strong year classes at both Sitka and Prince William Sound after 1993 indicate the action of large-scale ocean processes. Beyond regional-scale environmental factors, two factors specific to the sound influence the population dynamics of herring and are likely impeding recovery. First, pink salmon fry releases have increased to about 600 million annually and may disrupt feeding in young herring, which require adequate nutrition for growth and overwintering survival. Juvenile pink salmon and age-1 herring co-occur in nearshore areas of bays in late spring and summer, and available data on dietary overlap indicates potential competition between the age-1 juvenile herring and juvenile pink salmon. Field studies demonstrate that juvenile herring reduce food intake substantially in the presence of juvenile pink salmon. Second, overwintering humpback whales may consume potentially large amounts of adult herring, but further studies must confirm to what extent whale predation reduces herring biomass.

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Simulated herring growth responses in the Northeastern Pacific to historic temperature and zooplankton conditions generated by the 3-dimensional NEMURO nutrient–phytoplankton–zooplankton model

Cited by 44 publications

References 22 publications

The effect of climate change on the growth of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) using a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO)

The effect of climate change on the growth of Japanese chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) using a bioenergetics model coupled with a three-dimensional lower trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO)

NEMURO—a lower trophic level model for the North Pacific marine ecosystem

Hypotheses concerning the decline and poor recovery of Pacific herring in Prince William Sound, Alaska

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