Simulated climate adaptation in stormwater systems: evaluating the efficiency of adaptation strategies

McCurdy, Adam D.; Travis, William R.

doi:10.1007/s10669-017-9631-z

Cited by 4 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…Indeed, the practice of not incorporating climate change in design flood estimation continues and will likely continue for many years into the future, meaning design and planning decisions will need to be revisited if design rainfalls and flooding were previously underestimated [10,11]. If estimates of the design flood suggest exceedance of design capacity, particularly where serviceability has deteriorated due to poor maintenance [166], retrofitting may be required and the above decision framework applies also. If it is deemed climate change needs to be considered due to the long planning horizon (and critical consequences), flood estimation should then incorporate the impacts of climate change with adaptative approaches preferred.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Incorporating climate change in flood estimation guidance

Wasko

Westra

Orr

et al. 2021

Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A.

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Research into potential implications of climate change on flood hazard has made significant progress over the past decade, yet efforts to translate this research into practical guidance for flood estimation remain in their infancy. In this commentary, we address the question: how best can practical flood guidance be modified to incorporate the additional uncertainty due to climate change? We begin by summarizing the physical causes of changes in flooding and then discuss common methods of design flood estimation in the context of uncertainty. We find that although climate science operates across aleatory, epistemic and deep uncertainty, engineering practitioners generally only address aleatory uncertainty associated with natural variability through standards-based approaches. A review of existing literature and flood guidance reveals that although research efforts in hydrology do not always reflect the methods used in flood estimation, significant progress has been made with many jurisdictions around the world now incorporating climate change in their flood guidance. We conclude that the deep uncertainty that climate change brings signals a need to shift towards more flexible design and planning approaches, and future research effort should focus on providing information that supports the range of flood estimation methods used in practice. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%