Simulated Aftershock Sequences for an M 7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

Felzer, Karen R.

doi:10.1785/gssrl.80.1.21

Cited by 8 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 18 publications

(14 reference statements)

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“…The 2-year period was chosen to match the recovery horizon of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) San Francisco Bay Area Catastrophic Earthquake Plan, under development at the same time as the HayWired scenario. The method used to generate earthquake sequences is the same as was used to simulate the 1-week aftershock sequence for the ShakeOut scenario in southern California (Felzer, 2008).…”

Section: Aftershock Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

HayWired Scenario Mainshock Ground Motions

Aagaard¹

2017

Scientific Investigations Report

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Cover. Oblique aerial image showing how the main active traces of the Hayward Fault (red lines) cut through the urban landscape of the east bay part of the San Francisco Bay area (north is to the upper right; fault is oriented northwest-southeast). The image is overlain on a "hillshade" (artificially illuminated from the northwest) to show fault-zone ground-surface features, such as a right-laterally offset stream channel in the foreground. The fault trace roughly bisects California Memorial Stadium at the University of California, Berkeley (O-shaped feature in the middle of the image). The stadium was renovated and seismically strengthened at an expense of $321 million (see http://news. berkeley.edu/2011/09/01/memorial-stadium-renovated-with-help-of-berkeleys-own/) as an engineered countermeasure against fault-rupture hazard from a future earthquake such as that modeled in the HayWired scenario. Similarly, beneath the viewpoint of this image, the East Bay Municipal Utility District (EBMUD) mitigated the Hayward Fault crossing of the Claremont water-transmission tunnel by constructing a bypass tunnel at an expense of $38 million (see http://www.geoprac.net/geonews-mainmenu-63/64-project-related/333-the-claremont-tunneldesigned-to-survive-fault-rupture-on-the-hayward-fault/). Although notable risk-reduction measures such as these have already been taken along the Hayward Fault, issues with more than 300 buildings (mostly homes) that are situated directly on the fault, and dozens of major lifelines that cross it, have not yet been addressed.

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Section: Aftershock Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

HayWired Scenario Mainshock Ground Motions

Aagaard¹

2017

Scientific Investigations Report

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“…We attempt our study with the analysis of seismic b-values in space-time domains. Seismic b-value has been used in a variety of seismological studies, including earthquake forecasting, prediction, and seismic hazard analysis (Kagan and Knopoff, 1987;Rydelek and Sacks, 1989;Geller, 1997;Wiemer and Wyss, 2000;Beauval and Scotti, 2004;Woessner and Wiemer, 2005;Ogata and Zhuang 2006;Khan and Chakraborty, 2007;Felzer, 2008;Khan et al, 2011;Sobolev, 2011;Cheng and Sun, 2018;Peresan and Gentili, 2018). Special emphasis was given to simulate the distribution and the confinement of seismicity around the Delhi- NCR, the adjoining Himalayas, in general, and for three main tectonic domains of interest, i.e., Delhi (Zone X), Kangra (Zone Y) and Uttarkashi (Zone Z) regions, in particular ( Figure 1B).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Earthquake Shocks Around Delhi-NCR and the Adjoining Himalayan Front: A Seismotectonic Perspective

et al. 2021

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An increase in the number of earthquakes and subsequent clustering in northwest India, particularly around the Delhi-National Capital Region (NCR) and adjacent NW Himalayan front, provides a good opportunity to understand the underpinning tectonic controls and the likelihood of any large earthquake in the future. The 2001 Mw 7.7 Bhuj, 2011 Mw 6.9 Sikkim and 2015 Mw 7.8 and 7.3 Nepal earthquakes (and 2004 Mw 9.2 Sumatra event) are important in this context. We analyzed the seismicity around the Delhi-NCR and the adjoining Himalayan front, including event clustering and the spatio-temporal distribution of b-values, in the context of kinematics and the regional geodynamics. The overall moderate-to-low b-values, both in time and space, since 2016, provide information regarding an increase and subsequent stabilization of the stress field in the study area. The analysis led to the identification of (1) a structurally guided stress field in the region between the Kachchh and the NW Himalaya that coincides with the direction of Indian plate convergence and (2) frequent occurrences of earthquakes particularly in the Delhi, Kangra and Uttarkashi areas. We propose that faults in western Peninsular India, which pass through the margins of the Aravalli Range, the Marwar basin, and the isostatically over-compensated Indo-Gangetic Plains beneath the under-plated Indian lithosphere, act as stress guides; concentrating and increasing stress in regions of lithospheric flexure. This enhanced stress may trigger a large earthquake.

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“…Both parameters have been used in a variety of seismological studies, especially in seismicity simulation (Ogata and Zhuang 2006;Felzer, 2008), earthquake prediction (Kagan and Knopoff, 1987;Geller, 1997), and seismic hazard and risk assessment (Cornell, 1968;Beauval and Scotti, 2004). The accurate calculation of this parameter is therefore of critical importance.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Extension of the Aki-Utsu b-Value Estimator for Incomplete Catalogs

Kijko

Smit

2012

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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The Aki (1965) maximum likelihood estimate of the Gutenberg-Richter b-value is extended for use in the case of multiple catalogs with different levels of completeness. The most striking feature of this newly derived estimator is its simplicity-it is more manageable than the well-known and already easy to use Weichert (1980) solution to the analogs problem. In addition, confidence intervals for the newly derived estimator are provided.

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Simulated Aftershock Sequences for an M 7.8 Earthquake on the Southern San Andreas Fault

Cited by 8 publications

References 18 publications

HayWired Scenario Mainshock Ground Motions

HayWired Scenario Mainshock Ground Motions

Earthquake Shocks Around Delhi-NCR and the Adjoining Himalayan Front: A Seismotectonic Perspective

Extension of the Aki-Utsu b-Value Estimator for Incomplete Catalogs

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