Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness

Džiugys, Algis; Skarbalius, Gediminas; Misiulis, Edgaras; Navakas, Robertas

doi:10.1101/2020.04.28.20083428

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…Džiugys et al [35] , developed a simplified model using just the Susceptible, Infectious, and Removed (SIR) to quantify the overall effectiveness of the quarantine strategies. They found that their model is effective at evaluating the overall effectiveness of quarantine measures.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A causal framework to determine the effectiveness of dynamic quarantine policy to mitigate COVID-19

Kristjanpoller

Michell

Minutolo

2021

Applied Soft Computing

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Since the start of the pandemic caused by the novel coronavirus, COVID-19, more than 106 million people have been infected and global deaths have surpassed 2.4 million. In Chile, the government restricted the activities and movement of people, organizations, and companies, under the concept of dynamic quarantine across municipalities for a predefined period of time. Chile is an interesting context to study because reports to have a higher quantity of infections per million people as well as a higher number of polymerise chain reaction (PCR) tests per million people. The higher testing rate means that Chile has good measurement of the contagious compared to other countries. Further, the heterogeneity of the social, economic, and demographic variables collected of each Chilean municipality provides a robust set of control data to better explain the contagious rate for each city. In this paper, we propose a framework to determine the effectiveness of the dynamic quarantine policy by analyzing different causal models (meta-learners and causal forest) including a time series pattern related to effective reproductive number. Additionally, we test the ability of the proposed framework to understand and explain the spread over benchmark traditional models and to interpret the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) plots. The conclusions derived from the proposed framework provide important scientific information for government policymakers in disease control strategies, not only to analyze COVID-19 but to have a better model to determine social interventions for future outbreaks.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

A causal framework to determine the effectiveness of dynamic quarantine policy to mitigate COVID-19

Kristjanpoller

Michell

Minutolo

2021

Applied Soft Computing

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“…Simultaneously, with the spread of the virus, it has become important to analyze mathematically the data not only in Italy but also in other countries [3][4][5][6][7][8]. It is obvious that the a e-mail: feoli@unisannio.it (corresponding author) 0123456789().…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spreading of COVID-19 in Italy as the spreading of a wave packet

2020

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We find that the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy can be described as the propagation of a wave packet in a dispersive medium where the effect of lockdown is simulated by the dispersion relation of the medium. We start expanding a previous statistical analysis based on the official data provided by the Italian Civil Protection during 100 days, from March 2nd to June 9th. As the total number of people infected with the virus is uncertain, we have considered the trend of ICU patients and the sum of hospitalized patients and the deceased. Both the corresponding curves are well approximated by the same function depending on four free parameters. The model allows to predict the short-term behavior of the pandemic and to estimate the benefits due to lockdown measures.

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“…Hence we can consider that the effects of lockdown finish two weeks later, at the beginning of June. Simultaneously with the spread of the virus, it has become important to analyze mathematically the data not only in Italy but also in other countries [3][4][5][6][7][8]. It is obvious that the total number of people infected with COVID-19 is impossible to be known exactly.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Spreading of COVID-19 in Italy as the spreading of a wave packet

Feoli

Iannella

Benedetto

2020

Preprint

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We ﬁnd that the spreading of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy can be described as the propagation of a wave packet in a dispersive medium where the eﬀect of Lockdown is simulated by the dispersion relation of the medium. We start expanding a previous statistical analysis based on the oﬃcial data provided by the Italian civil protection during 100 days, from March 2nd to June 9th. As the total number of people infected with the virus is uncertain, we have considered the trend of ICU patients and the sum of hospitalized patients and the deceased. Both the corresponding curves are well approximated by the same function depending on four free parameters. The model allows to predict the short term behavior of the pandemic and to estimate the beneﬁts due to lockdown measures.

show abstract

Simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic prognosis under quarantine and estimation of quarantine effectiveness

Cited by 4 publications

References 11 publications

A causal framework to determine the effectiveness of dynamic quarantine policy to mitigate COVID-19

A causal framework to determine the effectiveness of dynamic quarantine policy to mitigate COVID-19

Spreading of COVID-19 in Italy as the spreading of a wave packet

Spreading of COVID-19 in Italy as the spreading of a wave packet

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