Simplified Mathematical Modelling of Uncertainty: Cost-Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccines in Spain

Abstract

When exceptional situations, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, arise and reliable data is not available at decision-making times, estimation using mathematical models can provide a reasonable reckoning for health planning. We present a simplified model (static but with two-time references) for estimating the cost-effectiveness of the COVID-19 vaccine. A simplified model provides a quick assessment of the upper bound of cost-effectiveness, as we illustrate with data from Spain, and allows for easy comparisons between countries. It may also provide useful comparisons among different vaccines at the marketplace, from the perspective of the buyer. From the analysis of this information, key epidemiological figures, and costs of the disease for Spain have been estimated, based on mortality. The fatality rate is robust data that can alternatively be obtained from death registers, funeral homes, cemeteries, and crematoria. Our model estimates the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) to be 5132 € (4926–5276) as of 17 February 2021, based on the following assumptions/inputs: An estimated cost of 30 euros per dose (plus transport, storing, and administration), two doses per person, efficacy of 70% and coverage of 70% of the population. Even considering the possibility of some bias, this simplified model provides confirmation that vaccination against COVID-19 is highly cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of COVID-19: Systematic review of 85 modelling studies

“…10 articles were about the treatments of COVID-19 patients [ 37 - 46 ], and 18 treatments were pooled. five studies (seven interventions) examined the cost-effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines or vaccine strategies [ 47 - 51 ].…”

Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Inactivated Vaccine to Address COVID-19 Pandemic in China: Evidence From Randomized Control Trials and Real-World Studies

“…Our results were consistent with previous cost-effectiveness studies and can improve their findings as these studies were done at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic with insufficient data on the efficacy and vaccine cost. Specifically, evidence from high-income countries showed that in general vaccination was cost-saving (43)(44)(45) and cost-effective (46,47), and the whole society can benefit from vaccination even when the coverage rate was at 60% (44). As for low-and middle-income countries, vaccination was cost-saving from a societal perspective (10,48).…”

Economic evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination: A systematic review

“…The two remaining studies were conducted in multiple countries; the first one comprised four analyses from LMICs and two analyses from HICs [ 36 ], while the other study comprised 12 analyses in LMICs [ 42 ]. Sixteen studies were conducted in 2021 [ 21 - 28 , 30 - 33 , 35 - 37 , 41 ], while nine studies were conducted in 2022 [ 29 , 34 , 38 - 40 , 42 - 45 ]. Most of the included studies (21/25) aimed to estimating the economic evaluation of different vaccination strategies [ 21 - 30 , 32 , 33 , 35 - 38 , 40 , 42 - 45 ], while two studies were conducted with the goal of estimating the economic evaluation of vaccination vs no vaccination [ 34 , 41 ].…”