Simple Method for Predicting American Presidential Greatness From Victory Margin in Popular Vote (1824-1996)

McCann, Stewart J. H.

doi:10.3200/socp.145.3.287-298

Cited by 4 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…At the same time, the historical context in which presidents serve powerfully shapes their current standing. Our results provide insight into one of the field's core debates and contribute to the literature examining greatness ratings (in addition to Simoton's works cited above, see, e.g., Balz ; Cohen ; Curry and Morris ; McCann ; Nichols ; Simon and Uscinski ). These ratings provide one measure of presidents’ legacies.…”

supporting

confidence: 59%

Polls and Elections: Character and Political Time as Sources of Presidential Greatness

Newman

Davis

2016

Pres Stud Q

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Presidency scholars have long debated whether a president's personal traits or the historical circumstances of their presidency have a bigger effect on presidential performance. We contribute to this debate by examining whether historical conditions (i.e., Skowronek's conception of political time) and two important personal traits (intellectual brilliance and character) relate to presidents' standing in polls of "presidential greatness." We find that both historical conditions and personal traits significantly predict historical evaluations of presidents. One's place in political time strongly shapes a president's greatness rating. At the same time, within Skowronek's categories, presidents with greater intellectual brilliance and stronger character tend to rank higher.Presidency scholars have long debated whether a president's personal traits or the historical circumstances of their presidency have a bigger effect on presidential performance. Stephen Skowronek (1993Skowronek ( , 2008 argues that the political conditions a president faces, what he calls "political time," largely defines the president's opportunities and challenges. In contrast, others argue that presidents' personal traits (e.g., personality, political skill, vision, communication skills) profoundly shape presidential behavior (e.g.

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supporting

confidence: 59%

Polls and Elections: Character and Political Time as Sources of Presidential Greatness

Newman

Davis

2016

Pres Stud Q

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“…4 4 There is some disciplinary crossover in this literature. McCann (1992, 1995, 2005), a psychologist, has made significant contributions to the line of research on the relationship between historical eras and presidential evaluations. …”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Contemporary Presidency Explaining Presidential Greatness: The Roles of Peace and Prosperity?

Curry

Morris

2010

Pres Stud Q

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Research on presidential greatness has a long history in the study of the American presidency. A prominent aspect of this literature is the study of presidential ratings generated from surveys of both experts and average Americans. A considerable body of research suggests that a relatively small number of factors—such as time in office, intellectual brilliance, and whether a president was assassinated—explain a great deal of the variation in the ratings. However, this list of variables includes no indicators of policy performance. We propose two such measures—one focusing on economic outcomes and one focusing on the outcomes of military conflict—and provide rationales for the hypothesized relationships between these measures of policy performance and presidential ratings. We find evidence of a substantial relationship between economic policy success and presidential ratings. However, there is no evidence of a relationship between foreign policy success and presidential ratings.

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“…Moreover, there is now a voluminous literature analyzing the greatness assessments of experts (Balz 2010;Bose and Landis 2003;Curry and Morris 2010;Deluga 1998; Kenney and Rice 1988;Maranell 1970;Maranell and Dodder 1970;McCann 1992McCann , 1995McCann , 2005Newman and Davis 2016;Nice 1984;Nichols 2012;Simon and Uscinski 2012;Simonton 1987Simonton , 1991Simonton , 1992Simonton , 1993Simonton , 2001Simonton , 2002Simonton , 2006Simonton , 2008Uscinski and Simon 2011). One rationale for the analysis of rankings is their consistency over time-presidents that are rated highly in one survey tend to be rated highly in the others.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Historical Memory of American Presidents in the Mass Public

Cohen

2018

Social Sciences

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This paper investigates public evaluations of past presidents. Since voters generally lack much historical knowledge, such evaluations are not useful indicators of the performance and effectiveness of presidents across history, unlike the greatness evaluations of experts, like historians and presidency scholars. Still, presidents may be concerned about how future generations of voters will think about them. These anticipations may then affect presidential behavior in office. This study uses a Rasmussen poll in 2007 that asked voters their assessment of all the past presidents, from George Washington through to George W. Bush. Results find that voters look upon past presidents more favorably as a larger number of voters have opinions about the president, presidents of the founding generation are looked upon more favorably, and the ratings of experts affect voters' assessments of past presidents. The conclusion discusses the implications of the results and offers suggestions for future research.

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Simple Method for Predicting American Presidential Greatness From Victory Margin in Popular Vote (1824-1996)

Cited by 4 publications

References 34 publications

Polls and Elections: Character and Political Time as Sources of Presidential Greatness

Polls and Elections: Character and Political Time as Sources of Presidential Greatness

The Contemporary Presidency Explaining Presidential Greatness: The Roles of Peace and Prosperity?

The Historical Memory of American Presidents in the Mass Public

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