Significant Determiners of Greek Debt Crisis: A Comparative Analysis with Probit and MARS Approaches

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to determine major indicators of the Greek crisis that started in 2009 and the effects of which can still be observed. In this regard, 8 independent variables were applied so as to fulfill the objective. Besides, the annual data between the years 1984 and 2016 was analyzed with Probit model. As a consequence of this study, it was concluded that inflation and gross savings are the leading meters of Greek crisis based on probit method. On the other hand, according to the MARS results, 3 different variables are identified as the indicators of the debt crisis in Greece. It is concluded that there is a negative relation between financial crisis with saving ratio and current account balance. Additionally, it is also identified that high unemployment ratio leads to financial crisis. While comparisng the results of these two approaches, it is concluded that MARS is much more successful than the probit method to predict the debt crisis in Greece. It is strongly recommended that saving ratio should be increased in Greece. For this purpose, governments should take some actions in order to increase this ratio more than 15.5%. Within this framework, media channels can be used by the government to tell the people about the importance of the savings to have sustainable economic development.

How Effective is Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure (MIP) in Predicting Negative Macroeconomic Phenomena?

“…Of course, other events may indicate a crisis (Mızrak and Yüksel, 2019 for a comprehensive overview of the literature on financial problems). For example, Catão and Milesi-Ferretti (2014) focus on defaults and rescheduling events and events associated with ample IMF support.…”