Significant Aerosol Influence on the Recent Decadal Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific

Takahashi, Chiharu; Mori, Masato

doi:10.1002/2017gl075369

Cited by 23 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Previous studies have shown that the number of TC or typhoon genesis over the WNP has an abrupt decrease in the late season after the late 1990s, which is attributed to the La Niña-like Pacific SST change, the North Atlantic SST warming, and the external forcing such as aerosol emission (e.g., Hsu et al, 2014;Takahashi et al, 2017;Zhang et al, 2018;Zhao et al, 2019). However, there is lack of consensus on the causes for the northwestwards shift of autumn TC genesis positions over the WNP after the late 1990s.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recently, a few studies have paid attention to the interdecadal variation in the WNP TC during autumn or late season due to frequent catastrophic super-typhoons (e.g., Liu and Chan, 2013;Hsu et al, 2014;Choi et al, 2015;He et al, 2015;Wu et al, 2015;Hong et al, 2016;Huangfu et al, 2017;Takahashi et al, 2017;Hu et al, 2018;Zhao et al, 2019). These studies have indicated a pronounced inter-decadal change in the TC genesis number and location over the WNP during late season around the late 1990s, which is characterized by remarkable decrease in the TC number and northwestwards shift in the TC genesis position.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This inter-decadal change in the WNP TC activity is attributed to the decadal changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulations, such as the intensification of the vertical wind shear in the southeastern/eastern WNP , the westwards shift of the monsoon trough (Huangfu et al, 2017) and the tropical upper-tropospheric trough over the WNP . The above circulation changes are tied to the ENSO regime shift (Hu et al, 2018), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) phase transition (Meehl et al, 2013;Hsu et al, 2014;He et al, 2015;Hu et al, 2018), and the global warming induced by the greenhouse gas and sulphate aerosol emissions (Takahashi et al, 2017).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

Cao

Liu

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Previous study has suggested a northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific (WNP) after the late 1990s. This study replenishes two mechanisms to explain this inter‐decadal change in the WNP TC genesis position. The first mechanism is related to the mean state change. According to observational analysis and numerical simulations with the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) atmospheric general circulation model, a La Niña‐type Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) change and the northern Atlantic Ocean warming in the late 1990s cause a dipole pattern of lower‐level circulation change, with cyclone over the northwestern WNP and anticyclone over the southeastern WNP. This pattern is favourable for more TC genesis in the northwestern WNP. The sensitivity experiments show that the contribution from the Pacific Ocean is larger than that from the northern Atlantic Ocean. The second mechanism is related to the change in the intra‐seasonal oscillation intensity, particularly the quasi‐biweekly variation. The activity of intra‐seasonal oscillations over the southeastern WNP shows a decadal decrease around the late 1990s. Meantime, when the intra‐seasonal oscillations with tilted structure move northwestwards, they provide a favourable condition for TC genesis to be located more northwestwards after the late 1990s.

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Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

Cao

Liu

et al. 2019

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…Zhang et al (2016) infer an anthropogenic contribution to high accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the western North Pacific in 2015. Exploring potential causes of recent decadalscale changes, Takahashi et al (2017) infer that changes in sulfate aerosol emissions caused more than half of the observed decline in TC frequency over the southeastern part of the western North Pacific during 1992-2011, while Zhao et al (2018) conclude that internal variability (the interdecadal Pacific oscillation) contributed to the lower TC frequency observed in the western North Pacific basin after 1998. Using a statistical analysis, Yang et al (2018) infer a contribution of global warming to record-setting TC intensity in the western North Pacific in 2015.…”

Section: Case Studies -Assessment Of De-tection and Attributionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Knutson

Camargo

Chan

et al. 2019

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

421

305

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An assessment was made of whether detectable changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity are identifiable in observations and whether any changes can be attributed to anthropogenic climate change. Overall, historical data suggest detectable TC activity changes in some regions associated with TC track changes, while data quality and quantity issues create greater challenges for analyses based on TC intensity and frequency. A number of specific published conclusions (case studies) about possible detectable anthropogenic influence on TCs were assessed using the conventional approach of preferentially avoiding type I errors (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection). We conclude there is at least low to medium confidence that the observed poleward migration of the latitude of maximum intensity in the western North Pacific is detectable, or highly unusual compared to expected natural variability. Opinion on the author team was divided on whether any observed TC changes demonstrate discernible anthropogenic influence, or whether any other observed changes represent detectable changes. The issue was then reframed by assessing evidence for detectable anthropogenic influence while seeking to reduce the chance of type II errors (i.e., missing or understating anthropogenic influence or detection). For this purpose, we used a much weaker “balance of evidence” criterion for assessment. This leads to a number of more speculative TC detection and/or attribution statements, which we recognize have substantial potential for being false alarms (i.e., overstating anthropogenic influence or detection) but which may be useful for risk assessment. Several examples of these alternative statements, derived using this approach, are presented in the report.

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“…Zhan et al () suggest that intense TCs formed over the western WNP have stronger coastal risk than those formed over the eastern WNP. However, despite an increase in typhoon intensity with local SST warming, the reduced developing duration (due to the northwestward shift of TC genesis location) and decreased TC frequency (e.g., He et al, ; F. Hu, Li, et al, ; Maue, ; Takahashi et al, ) tend to offset the increasing TC intensity from a typhoon destructive potential perspective (Lin & Chan, ), often with conflicting effects (Knutson et al, ). Meanwhile, there are significant westward expansions of WNP subtropical high (WNPSH) since the 1950s (Wu & Wang, ) and tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) since the late‐1970s (Wang & Wu, , ; Wu et al, ), which are closely linked to the changes in steering flow and genesis location of TC, respectively.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Perspective on Landfalling Frequency and Genesis Location Variations of Southern China Typhoon During Peak Summer

Zhang

Huang

et al. 2019

Geophysical Research Letters

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Increasing intense landfalling typhoons (LFTYs) are of great coastal threatens to southern China. However, changes in genesis location and landfalling frequency of western North Pacific (WNP) LFTY dedicated to southern China remain unclear. Here we identified such LFTYs during peak summer and found that most LFTYs formed south of 20°N and the LFTY genesis locations over southern WNP have also experienced a sharp interdecadal shift since 1998, which are mainly attributed to the large‐scale environment changes induced by the Mega‐La Niña‐like climate shift. However, LFTY frequency (= “landfalling frequency of southern China typhoon”) shows a slight increasing trend but without significant interdecadal variation. Variations of LFTY frequency are mainly affected by the easterly steering flows near 20°N over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea, which are closely linked to the WNP subtropical high activity. Our results provide a new perspective on the LFTY activities dedicated to southern China.

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Significant Aerosol Influence on the Recent Decadal Decrease in Tropical Cyclone Activity Over the Western North Pacific

Cited by 23 publications

References 37 publications

Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

Northwestwards shift of tropical cyclone genesis position during autumn over the western North Pacific after the late 1990s

Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change Assessment: Part I: Detection and Attribution

Perspective on Landfalling Frequency and Genesis Location Variations of Southern China Typhoon During Peak Summer

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