Signature of rebellion: how SOC theory helps to detect signs of protest mobilization on the web

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to detect signs of political mobilization in social networks during the period of intensification of internal political struggle (including street actions of the opposition) at the beginning of 2021 in Russia. This study suggests a new quantitative indicator to reveal online communities (networks) characterized by strong user engagement and high level of political mobilization. VK-communities were mapped and analyzed in order to demonstrate the capability of this tool and determine levels of mobilization. The hypothesis of the study was that mobilized communities are able to turn virtual grievances into street protests. The object of study is a set (cluster) of related protest VK-communities (groups/hubs) through which messages from the most influential information donors are brought to public notice on the Internet. The proposed indicator for the calculation of mobilization level is based on the theory of self-organized criticality (SOC). The theory of SOC was initially created to describe a broad class of natural science phenomena, yet it has recently made its way into humanities and social sciences. Timeline of work: from January 10 to April 30, 2021. It was found that some groups (about 10%) in the considered cluster had a high mobilization index during this period. Many of the mobilized groups were very influential: they were both large-scale information donors and highly specialized protest communities. The practical significance of this study lies in improving the methods of monitoring network activity to identify groups that can influence the behavior of their members (both online and on the streets). This study also has theoretical significance related to the accumulation of knowledge about SOC effects in social systems.