Flexible operation
of large-scale boilers for electricity generation
is essential in modern power systems. An accurate prediction of boiler
steam temperature is of great importance to the operational efficiency
of boiler units to prevent the occurrence of overtemperature. In this
study, a dense, residual long short-term memory network (LSTM)-attention
model is proposed for steam temperature prediction. In particular,
the residual elements in the proposed model have a great advantage
in improving the accuracy by adding short skip connections between
layers. To provide overall information for the steam temperature prediction,
uncertainty analysis based on the proposed model is performed to quantify
the uncertainties in steam temperature variations. Our results demonstrate
that the proposed method exhibits great performance in steam temperature
prediction with a mean absolute error (MAE) of less than 0.6 °C.
Compared to algorithms such as support-vector regression (SVR), ridge
regression (RIDGE), the recurrent neural network (RNN), the gated
recurrent unit (GRU), and LSTM, the prediction accuracy of the proposed
model outperforms by 32, 16, 12, 10, and 11% in terms of MAE, respectively.
According to our analysis, the dense residual LSTM-attention model
is shown to provide an accurate early warning of overtemperature,
enabling the development of real-time steam temperature control.