Should big cities grow? Scenario-based cellular automata urban growth modeling and policy applications

Guan, ChengHe; Rowe, Peter G.

doi:10.1016/j.jum.2017.01.002

Cited by 30 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 15 publications

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“…All C language source code, libraries, and sample data for the SLEUTH computations are available for downloading through Project Gigalopolis (USGS, 2010), and SLEUTH has been applied to many cities (e.g. Guan and Rowe, 2016). In this study, urban growth was determined according to the assumption that historical levels of urbanization would be maintained.…”

Section: Historical and Future Land-use/cover Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Moe

Kure

Januriyadi

et al. 2017

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:Jakarta is facing several issues related to flooding, including land subsidence in the coastal area and rapid land-use/ cover changes in the upstream area. In this study, we analyzed the effects of future changes in land use and land subsidence using a rainfall-runoff and flood inundation model. The future land-use scenarios were projected based on the SLEUTH model, and land subsidence was projected based on an extrapolation of the current state in Jakarta.Based on this analysis, land-use changes and land subsidence contributed to an increase in flood inundation volume of 36.8% from 2013 to 2050. Moreover, the effects of land-use changes on flood inundation in Jakarta were much greater than those of land subsidence. The government's current target to stop land subsidence by 2020 would cause a 7.7% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. Furthermore, controlling and regulating land-use/cover changes by 2020 would cause a 10.9% decrease in the flood inundation volume by 2050. From these results, we conclude that a flood mitigation plan should be made not only for land subsidence, but also for land-use changes.

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Section: Historical and Future Land-use/cover Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Moe

Kure

Januriyadi

et al. 2017

Hydrological Research Letters

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“…Creating UGSMs can now be easily made thanks to developments in computer technology. Therefore, a number of simulation models have been generated to predict, analyze, and monitor urbanization [4,[6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14]. The well-known model among them is CA and it is frequently used to follow the changes caused by urban growth on land cover.…”

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confidence: 99%

Extracting an Urban Growth Model’s Land Cover Layer from Spatio-Temporal Cadastral Database and Simulation Application

Ayazli¹,

Gül²,

Baslik³

et al. 2019

Pol. J. Environ. Stud.

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The United Nations (UN) has organized various meetings since 1987 and proposed the land management and land administration models as a component of sustainable development to protect natural and environmental resources and improve the quality of life in the world [1-2]. In this context, cadaster has new and important responsibilities and evolves to land administration defined as an implementation tool of land management policies [3]. As part of a sustainable development paradigm, urban growth is required to be kept under control according to the understanding of land management. In other words, land management requires estimating how the land cover will change [3]

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“…Based on previous research experience, constrained CA ideas, and current situation of research area, this study quantified and spatialized basic farmland protection policies and ecological protection policies in the conversion rules of CA. Therefore, according 7 Complexity to the general plan for land use in Dalian (2006-2020), the cell set in the basic farmland protection policy and ecological protection policy was set to 0; that is, the cell state does not change in the next iteration calculation in the simulation of the specific definition of the scene [91][92][93]. In addition, when the fuzzy membership degree of location factor and ecological suitability factor f x is set to 0 and 1, the idea of constrained CA is also applied.…”

Section: Constrained Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulating Intraurban Land Use Dynamics under Multiple Scenarios Based on Fuzzy Cellular Automata: A Case Study of Jinzhou District, Dalian

Yang

Weiling

et al. 2018

Complexity

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The spatial evolution of land use in Jinzhou area was simulated using fuzzy cellular automata to determine all factors influencing urban land use change. For this purpose, land use data of multiple sources and remote sensing images from 2003 to 2015 were analyzed. The following results were obtained: (1) real land use data and simulation data for 2015 were tested using four indices. Under the 5 m × 5 m scale, the model shows good performance for simulation of areas with various land use types. (2) Among simulations under four scenarios, the effect of traffic guidance on the development of construction land was more distinct under the economic development mode, which clearly showed the phenomenon of “agglomeration” along major traffic lines. (3) Jinshitan Street is adjacent to the sea, and land use changes are significant under the 4th scenario, and thus related departments should pay more attention. (4) Shortcomings of conventional cellular automata model in processing complex systems could be mitigated through the integration of fuzzy sets.

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Should big cities grow? Scenario-based cellular automata urban growth modeling and policy applications

Cited by 30 publications

References 15 publications

Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Future projection of flood inundation considering land-use changes and land subsidence in Jakarta, Indonesia

Extracting an Urban Growth Model’s Land Cover Layer from Spatio-Temporal Cadastral Database and Simulation Application

Simulating Intraurban Land Use Dynamics under Multiple Scenarios Based on Fuzzy Cellular Automata: A Case Study of Jinzhou District, Dalian

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