Short-Term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Principal Component Analysis and LSTM

Yue

et al. 2020

Water

A gated recurrent unit (GRU) network, which is a kind of artificial neural network (ANN), has been increasingly applied to runoff forecasting. However, knowledge about the impact of different input data filtering strategies and the implications of different architectures on the GRU runoff forecasting model’s performance is still insufficient. This study has selected the daily rainfall and runoff data from 2007 to 2014 in the Wei River basin in Shaanxi, China, and assessed six different scenarios to explore the patterns of that impact. In the scenarios, four manually-selected rainfall or runoff data combinations and principal component analysis (PCA) denoised input have been considered along with single directional and bi-directional GRU network architectures. The performance has been evaluated from the aspect of robustness to 48 various hypermeter combinations, also, optimized accuracy in one-day-ahead (T + 1) and two-day-ahead (T + 2) forecasting for the overall forecasting process and the flood peak forecasts. The results suggest that the rainfall data can enhance the robustness of the model, especially in T + 2 forecasting. Additionally, it slightly introduces noise and affects the optimized prediction accuracy in T + 1 forecasting, but significantly improves the accuracy in T + 2 forecasting. Though with relevance (R = 0.409~0.763, Grey correlation grade >0.99), the runoff data at the adjacent tributary has an adverse effect on the robustness, but can enhance the accuracy of the flood peak forecasts with a short lead time. The models with PCA denoised input has an equivalent, even better performance on the robustness and accuracy compared with the models with the well manually filtered data; though slightly reduces the time-step robustness, the bi-directional architecture can enhance the prediction accuracy. All the scenarios provide acceptable forecasting results (NSE of 0.927~0.951 for T + 1 forecasting and 0.745~0.836 for T + 2 forecasting) when the hyperparameters have already been optimized. Based on the results, recommendations have been provided for the construction of the GRU runoff forecasting model.

Section: Recommendations Based On the Evaluation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 56%

“…Through the PCA operation, the initial N-dimensional matrix will be transformed into a K-dimensional matrix (K < N). The calculation processes in the PCA component reduction operation can refer to the following literature [56][57][58].…”

Section: Principal Component Analysis (Pca) Denoisingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Input Filtering and Architecture Selection Strategies on GRU Runoff Forecasting: A Case Study in the Wei River Basin, Shaanxi, China

Wang

Yue

et al. 2020

Water

“…LSTM is one type of recurrent neural networks that have superior time-series predictions for short-term weather conditions. The details of how to integrate LSTM into the HEMS procedure are provided in [30,38].…”

Section: Mpc-based Hems Simulation Frameworkmentioning

confidence: 99%

PV-EV Integrated Home Energy Management Considering Residential Occupant Behaviors

2021

Sustainability

Self Cite

Rooftop photovoltaics (PV) and electrical vehicles (EV) have become more economically viable to residential customers. Most existing home energy management systems (HEMS) only focus on the residential occupants’ thermal comfort in terms of indoor temperature and humidity while neglecting their other behaviors or concerns. This paper aims to integrate residential PV and EVs into the HEMS in an occupant-centric manner while taking into account the occupants’ thermal comfort, clothing behaviors, and concerns on the state-of-charge (SOC) of EVs. A stochastic adaptive dynamic programming (ADP) model was proposed to optimally determine the setpoints of heating, ventilation, air conditioning (HVAC), occupant’s clothing decisions, and the EV’s charge/discharge schedule while considering uncertainties in the outside temperature, PV generation, and EV’s arrival SOC. The nonlinear and nonconvex thermal comfort model, EV SOC concern model, and clothing behavior model were holistically embedded in the ADP-HEMS model. A model predictive control framework was further proposed to simulate a residential house under the time of use tariff, such that it continually updates with optimal appliance schedules decisions passed to the house model. Cosimulations were carried out to compare the proposed HEMS with a baseline model that represents the current operational practice. The result shows that the proposed HEMS can reduce the energy cost by 68.5% while retaining the most comfortable thermal level and negligible EV SOC concerns considering the occupant’s behaviors.

“…Reliable wind power forecasting is urgently needed for timely and accurate dispatch of power resources [3,4]. Wind speed forecasting methods include statistical approaches, machine learning methods [5][6][7][8][9][10][11], and numerical weather prediction [12]. There have been many works on wind prediction reported in the past two decades, especially over the last few years.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wind Speed Forecasts of a Mesoscale Ensemble for Large-Scale Wind Farms in Northern China: Downscaling Effect of Global Model Forecasts

Shi

et al. 2022

Energies

To facilitate wind power integration for the electric power grid operated by the Inner Mongolia Electric Power Corporation—a major electric power grid in China—a high-resolution (of 2.7 km grid intervals) mesoscale ensemble prediction system was developed that forecasts winds for 130 wind farms in the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The ensemble system contains 39 forecasting members that are divided into 3 groups; each group is composed of the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) real-time four-dimensional data assimilation and forecasting model (RTFDDA) with 13 physical perturbation members, but driven by the forecasts of the GFS (Global Forecast System), GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale Model), and GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System), respectively. The hub-height wind predictions of these three sub-ensemble groups at selected wind turbines across the region were verified against the hub-height wind measurements. The forecast performance and variations with lead time, wind regimes, and diurnal and regional changes were analyzed. The results show that the GFS group outperformed the other two groups with respect to correlation coefficient and mean absolute error. The GFS group had the most accurate forecasts in ~59% of sites, while the GEOS and GEM groups only performed the best on 34% and 2% of occasions, respectively. The wind forecasts were most accurate for wind speeds ranging from 3 to 12 m/s, but with an overestimation for low speeds and an underestimation for high speeds. The GEOS-driven members obtained the least bias error among the three groups. All members performed rather accurately in daytime, but evidently overestimated the winds during nighttime. The GFS group possessed the fewest diurnal errors, and the bias of the GEM group grew significantly during nighttime. The wind speed forecast errors of all three ensemble members increased with the forecast lead time, with the average absolute error increasing by ~0.3 m/s per day during the first 72 h of forecasts.