Short-term vs long-term reliance: Development of a novel approach for diversity of fuels for electricity in energy security

Kosai, Shoki; Unesaki, Hironobu

doi:10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.114520

Cited by 17 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…According to the expected durations, a “downward” (“upward”) regime is the dominant or typical state of the US p&p the NAST. Consequently, mitigates the volatility of fuel prices, contributes to the fuel price stability, and hence develops the US ES in terms of risk and resilience (Kosai and Unesaki 2020a , b ; García Mazo et al 2020 ; Liu et al 2020a , b ; Sun et al 2020 ; Groissböck and Gusmão 2020 ; Francés et al 2013 ; Roques et al 2008 ) 18 . In respect of diagnostic tests, the findings of Durbin-Watson (DW) statistics pre- (2.03) and post- (2.07) the NAST show that no autocorrelation problem in the residuals is assessed in both sub-samples.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consequently, the interconnection of uncertainty, speed- and expected duration of specified switching regimes of lead to a combination of fewer risks and higher resilience of the US ES, in response to the NAST. Specifically, the NAST causes resource availability, and a negative correlation among energy prices that facilitates the replacement of coal, oil, and green energy sources (e.g., nuclear power and renewable energy resources) by natural gas in the energy mix that supports the physical availability, price affordability and accessibility dimensions of the US ES, and therefore, increases the US (Kosai and Unesaki 2020a , b ; García Mazo et al 2020 ; Hasanov et al 2020 ; Liu et al 2020a , b ; Sun et al 2020 ; Acemoglu et al 2019 ; Francés et al 2013 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Hence, a mixture of higher risk and less resilience of ES is concluded for the US energy systems through the NAST, as the country has been getting highly relies on energy imports and therefore, there is a limited possibility to meet its energy consumption via domestic energy sources. Consequently, the US diversification and imports of energy sources should be re-designed (Gong et al 2021 ; Lin and Raza 2020 ; Li et al 2020 ; Augutis et al 2020 ; Kosai and Unesaki 2020a , b ; Gan et al 2019 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The second group of articles investigates determining the risks around ES, e.g., environment, technology, energy supply, geopolitics, and economic factors of individual economies and regions (Kosai and Unesaki 2020a ; García Mazo et al 2020 ; Hasanov et al 2020 ; Karatayev and Hall 2020 ; Lin and Raza 2020 ; San-Akca et al 2020 ; Liu et al 2020a , b ; Sun et al 2020 ; Groissböck and Gusmão 2020 ; Zeng et al 2017 ; Kiriyama and Kajikawa 2014 ; Francés et al 2013 ; Roques et al 2008 ) and finds that , renewables development, citizen commitment, the mobilization of technological and economic resources, and finally, a model of generation, efficiency, and distribution as well as the preventive- and optimizing control models have constructive roles in optimization of the security status and therefore, ES enhancement.…”

Section: Literature and Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy security: the role of shale technology

Shirazi

2023

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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Sustainable energy systems are sensitive to the countries’ energy portfolio decisions, shaping geopolitics and contributing to the global energy security (ES). Accordingly, this paper applies the “Markov regime-switching” method to explore the impact of “the North American shale technology” (NAST) on behavioral regimes of the US energy security measurements (ESM), e.g., diversity of primary energy demand ($${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{I}}$$ ESI I ), net energy import dependence ($${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{II}}$$ ESI II ), non-fossil fuel resource portfolio ($${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{III}}$$ ESI III ), and crude oil import dependency ($${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{IV}}$$ ESI IV ). The findings confirm time-varying and asymmetric behavior of the US ESM before and after the NAST. Specifically, the overall interaction of substitution effect and scale effect of NAST strengthens the US energy systems through $${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{I}}$$ ESI I , $${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{III}}$$ ESI III , and $${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{IV}}$$ ESI IV , while $${\mathrm{ESI}}_{\mathrm{II}}$$ ESI II leads to higher risks of the US energy supply security. Consequently, the shale reserves development, diversification of primary energy demand and import supply, and advanced energy transport and trading policies, are suggested to overcome the barriers in achieving (i) availability, (ii) accessibility, (iii) affordability, and (iv) acceptability aspects of ES and vulnerability reduction of the US energy systems in respect of risk and resilience.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Literature and Theorymentioning

confidence: 99%

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Energy security: the role of shale technology

Shirazi

2023

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…Furthermore, the existence of an acyclical behavior for

STF

SED

in reaction to

ET

policies under both regimes helps to reduce risk and promote resilience associated with the

LECE

's energy systems, specifically in the short‐ and medium‐term. Accordingly, the policies towards a balanced growth of

ET

dimensions stabilize energy prices and strengthen domestic enabling conditions to attract finance and investment in energy efficiency and new and renewable energy sources (OECD, 2022), reduce pollution and cope with climate change, decrease dependence on traditional energy (Kosai & Unesaki, 2020; Shirazi, 2022; Shirazi & Fuinhas, 2023) and hence, promote

SED

in the 25 LECE (Güney, 2019; 2020; 2021).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainable economic development and geopolitics: The role of energy trilemma policies

Shirazi

Fuinhas

Silva

2023

Sustainable Development

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This study reveals and supports the existence of a three-way connection between sustainable economic development (SED), geopolitical risks (GPRI), and the energy trilemma (ET). The impacts of ET on SED, and GPRI were analyzed using a regimeswitching vector autoregressive model. Results reveal mostly a positive impact of ET on SED. Consequently, decision-makers should design policies that promote ET to enhance economic growth and sustainability. However, decision-makers should acknowledge that uncertainty regarding the impact of these policies on SED and the time lag until their effects are felt in economies varies widely across regimes. Geopolitical risk reveals a slightly positive short-term reaction to ET under the slightly downward regime and a durable cyclical pattern in the sharply upward one. The cyclical impact of energy equity and security on GPRI is positive, while environmental sustainability reduces geopolitical risk. This fluctuating pattern of the response of GPRI to ET policies is compatible with prior research that shows these policies may either foster or mitigate geopolitical risk. Detailed knowledge of the differing impacts of ET-related policies on geopolitical risk is fundamental for decision-makers if they want the counteract some of their adverse effects and enhance geopolitical stability.

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