Short-term prediction of solar proton events by neural network method

Forecast of Solar Proton Events With Noaa Scales Based on Solar X-Ray Flare Data Using Neural Network

“…It is not easy to compare our model with previous other models in that other neural network models mostly predict 'yes' or 'no' of SPE event (Gong et al 2004;Cui et al 2012). Wang (2000) used a neural network method for the forecast of three levels of SPE flux.…”

“…We plan to develop a model based on both flare and CME parameters as its input data. We will also consider other input data such as hard Xray fluxes (Garcia 2004), magnetic properties (Cui et al 2012), and other solar activities (Wang 2000;Gong et al 2004). …”

“…The models used several kinds of input data such as sunspot properties from white light and magnetogram observations, flare, and radio burst. While two models (Gong et al 2004;Cui et al 2012) can predict "event" or "no event", Wang (2000) suggested a two-pass model using by both a yes/no event prediction and forecast three levels of SPE events. In this study we make the first attempt to forecast SPE scales by neural network.…”

“…Therefore, the algorithms make it possible to construct a forecast model even though the relationship between cause and effect is not clearly understood. Neural networks have been broadly used in space weather applications such as the prediction of solar activities (Wang 2000;Gong et al 2004;Wang et al 2008;Qahwaji et al 2007Qahwaji et al , 2008Henwood et al 2010) and geomagnetic activities (Lundstedt 1992;Hernandez et al 1993;Freeman et al 1993;Valach et al 2009;Ji et al 2013). SPE prediction models have been developed by neu-…”

“…ral networks (Wang 2000;Gong et al 2004;Cui et al 2012), which are mostly applied to the prediction of SPE occurrence (Yes or No of SPE events). The models used several kinds of input data such as sunspot properties from white light and magnetogram observations, flare, and radio burst.…”