Short-Term Load Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Markets using Fuzzy Approach

Aggarwal, SK; Kumar, Manoj; Saini, LM; Kumar, Ashwani

doi:10.4103/0976-8580.74559

Cited by 12 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…A fuzzy rule based approach is presented to generate a crisp estimate for system load in [97]. To get this done, historical load, temperature, and time information were converted into fuzzy information.…”

Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting

et al. 2015

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Data mining has become an essential tool during the last decade to analyze large sets of data. The variety of techniques it includes and the successful results obtained in many application fields, make this family of approaches powerful and widely used. In particular, this work explores the application of these techniques to time series forecasting. Although classical statistical-based methods provides reasonably good results, the result of the application of data mining outperforms those of classical ones. Hence, this work faces two main challenges: (i) to provide a compact mathematical formulation of the mainly used techniques; (ii) to review the latest works of time series forecasting and, as case study, those related to electricity price and demand markets.

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Section: Related Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting

et al. 2015

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“…The daily system load is influenced by the time of the day, day of the week and random effects and strongly affects prices in deregulated electricity markets (Aggarwal et al 2011). In the intraday market, the TSOs are responsible for managing the load forecast errors, presumably via price influencing sales and purchases in the GIME.…”

Section: Load Forecast Errormentioning

confidence: 99%

Price determinants in the German intraday market for electricity: an empirical analysis

Hagemann¹

2015

JEM

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Terms of use: Documents in Executive SummaryWhile day-ahead prices for electricity are being extensively studied, the literature so far has neglected the analysis of intraday market prices. Intraday markets are becoming increasingly important in the presence of high shares of electricity production from intermittent renewable energy sources. Trading the deviations of the actually realized production profile from the day-ahead planned one in the intraday market may enhance system security and increase social welfare. This paper contributes to the electricity market pricing literature by exploring the influence of theoretical price determinants on intraday prices, presumably for the first time. The empirical analysis confirms that wind forecast errors, solar forecast errors and outages have significant influences on intraday prices. Nevertheless, only a minor share of power plant outages and solar power forecast errors are traded on the electronic intraday trading platform, thus influencing prices not as strongly as expected. Furthermore the price determinants influence intraday prices differently over the course of the day, e. g. wind forecast errors have a stronger price impact during the time from midnight to eight am than during the rest of the day. This may be explained by an alternating liquidity provision.Practitioners may benefit from this study because the understanding of intraday price developments is a prerequisite for the assessment of the market value of (1) flexible power plants like gas turbines or pump storage plants and (2) intraday portfolio positions. Researchers might be interested in the results of this study as it lays a foundation for further more theoretically orientated research projects about intraday markets.

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“…For this reason, its use must be confined to a minimum for efficient and economic operation [1]. Because of its flexibility, electricity offers advantages over the conventional fossil fuels, and efforts to conserve electricity can result in significant cost savings [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Electrical Energy Auditing and Harmonic Analysis of Industrial Units: A Case Study

Oberoi¹,

Aggarwal²

2011

J Eng Technol

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Short-Term Load Forecasting in Deregulated Electricity Markets using Fuzzy Approach

Cited by 12 publications

References 6 publications

A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting

A Survey on Data Mining Techniques Applied to Electricity-Related Time Series Forecasting

Price determinants in the German intraday market for electricity: an empirical analysis

Electrical Energy Auditing and Harmonic Analysis of Industrial Units: A Case Study

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