Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic: a study case of Cameroon

Nkwayep, C. Hameni; Bowong, Samuel; Tewa, Jean Jules; Kurths, Jürgen

doi:10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110106

Cited by 37 publications

(37 citation statements)

References 43 publications

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“…Continued compliance to preventive measures is therefore recommended as long as community transmission is ongoing, since COVID-19 spreaders could appear perfectly healthy in about half of cases [ 22 ]. In that light, mathematical modellers recommended that confinement (even partial), alongside mass masking and other hygienic rules, is indispensable to eradicate COVID-19 in Cameroon [ 23 , 24 ]. It could be worthwhile to investigate the effects of traditional medicine use on both the occurrence of flu-like symptoms among Cameroonians during the COVID-19 outbreak, and also on the preventive behaviours of avid consumers of home-made concoctions, as the latter may feel more protected against the virus than others.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

Fodjo

Ngarka²,

Njamnshi³

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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Since March 2020, the Cameroonian government implemented nationwide measures to stall COVID-19 transmission. However, little is known about how well these unprecedented measures are being observed as the pandemic evolves. We conducted a six-month online survey to assess the preventive behaviour of Cameroonian adults during the COVID-19 outbreak. A five-point adherence score was constructed based on self-reported observance of the following preventive measures: physical distancing, face mask use, hand hygiene, not touching one’s face, and covering the mouth when coughing or sneezing. Predictors of adherence were investigated using ordinal logistic regression models. Of the 7381 responses received from all ten regions, 73.3% were from male respondents and overall mean age was 32.8 ± 10.8 years. Overall mean adherence score was 3.96 ± 1.11 on a scale of 0–5. Mean weekly adherence scores were initially high, but gradually decreased over time accompanied by increasing incidence of COVID-19 during the last study weeks. Predictors for higher adherence included higher age, receiving COVID-19 information from health personnel, and agreeing with the necessity of lockdown measures. Meanwhile, experiencing flu-like symptoms was associated with poor adherence. Continuous observance of preventive measures should be encouraged among Cameroonians in the medium- to long-term to avoid a resurgence in COVID-19 infections.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

Fodjo

Ngarka²,

Njamnshi³

et al. 2021

IJERPH

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“…A first method is to discretize the differential equation model with respect to available time series and to fit unknown parameters by reducing the distance between the numerical solution and observed time series [7]. Another method consists of empirical estimating function linking the state of the system with the time using times series and after in estimation through the considered model [6,16,40,47].…”

Section: A Focus On Cameroonian Context 31 Estimation Of Parametersmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Those papers can be organized in three groups. The first group addressed the problem of forecasting the disease in order to help decision makers to better evaluate the logistic challenges they will face [1,3,4,16,15,24,25,28,29,37,38,39,41,45,47,48,51,61,62]. The second category of papers focused on evaluating the effectiveness of mitigations measures prescribed by the WHO and different governments in order to define better fighting strategies [5,9,12,13,14,29,34,37,41,44,45,46,50,53,55,54,60,62].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

Fotsa-Mbogne

Kouakep

et al. 2021

Preprint

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This work aims at a better understanding and the optimal control of the spread of the new severe acute respiratory corona virus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). We first propose a multi-scale model giving insights on the virus population dynamics, the transmission process and the infection mechanism. We consider 10 compartments in the human population in order to take into accounts the effects of different specific mitigation policies. The population of viruses is also partitioned into 10 compartments corresponding respectively to each of the first nine human population compartments and the free viruses available in the environment. We show the global stability of the disease free equilibrium if a given threshold T_0 is less or equal to 1 and we provide how to compute the basic reproduction number R_0. A convergence index T_1 is also defined in order to estimate the speed at which the disease extincts and an upper bound to the time of extinction is given. The existence of the endemic equilibrium is conditional and its description is provided. We evaluate the sensitivity of R_0, T_0 and T_1 to control parameters such as the maximal human density allowed per unit of surface, the rate of disinfection both for people and environment, the mobility probability, the wearing mask probability or efficiency, and the human to human contact rate which results from the previous one. Except the maximal human density allowed per unit of surface, all those parameters have significant effects on the qualitative dynamics of the disease. The most significant is the probability of wearing mask followed by the probability of mobility and the disinfection rate. According to a functional cost taking into consideration economic impacts of SARS-CoV-2, we determine and discuss optimal fighting strategies. The study is applied to real available data from Cameroon and an estimation of model parameters is done. After several simulations, social distancing and the disinfection frequency appear as the main elements of the optimal control strategy.

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“…The Reference [43] used an EnKF approach for parameter estimation and shot-term forecasts with a simple SIR model. The Reference [44] proposed an EnKF for estimating unmeasurable state variables and unknown parameters of a SIRV model, which takes into account the circulation of free coronavirus in the environment. In the context of variational data assimilation methods, the Reference [45] performed parameter estimation and predictions using a SIR model, while [46] proposed a modified SEIR model that distinguishes between symptomatic and asymptomatic, and conducted observation sensitivity experiments to identify suitable observing strategies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An Extended SEIR Model with Vaccination for Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

et al. 2021

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In this paper, an extended SEIR model with a vaccination compartment is proposed to simulate the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) spread in Saudi Arabia. The model considers seven stages of infection: susceptible (S), exposed (E), infectious (I), quarantined (Q), recovered (R), deaths (D), and vaccinated (V). Initially, a mathematical analysis is carried out to illustrate the non-negativity, boundedness, epidemic equilibrium, existence, and uniqueness of the endemic equilibrium, and the basic reproduction number of the proposed model. Such numerical models can be, however, subject to various sources of uncertainties, due to an imperfect description of the biological processes governing the disease spread, which may strongly limit their forecasting skills. A data assimilation method, mainly, the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), is then used to constrain the model outputs and its parameters with available data. We conduct joint state-parameters estimation experiments assimilating daily data into the proposed model using the EnKF in order to enhance the model’s forecasting skills. Starting from the estimated set of model parameters, we then conduct short-term predictions in order to assess the predicability range of the model. We apply the proposed assimilation system on real data sets from Saudi Arabia. The numerical results demonstrate the capability of the proposed model in achieving accurate prediction of the epidemic development up to two-week time scales. Finally, we investigate the effect of vaccination on the spread of the pandemic.

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Short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic: a study case of Cameroon

Cited by 37 publications

References 43 publications

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

COVID-19 Preventive Behaviours in Cameroon: A Six-Month Online National Survey

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

An Extended SEIR Model with Vaccination for Forecasting the COVID-19 Pandemic in Saudi Arabia Using an Ensemble Kalman Filter

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