Short‐Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand

Fullerton, Thomas M.; Ceballos, Alejandro; Walke, Adam G.

doi:10.5942/jawwa.2016.108.0003

Cited by 9 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 54 publications

(73 reference statements)

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“…Furthermore, we do not know how household incomes and expenses other than water will change over that period. We do note that Fullerton et al [ 38 ] found an elasticity of -0.32 (a 10% rate increase would produce a 3.2% decrease in water demand) for monthly water use in El Paso. They also found that, at least for monthly water use, water consumers tend to react more quickly to changes in climatic conditions than to changes in price, which could dampen the impact of price on reducing demand and heighten the impact of expected increases in temperature.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 62%

“…An important limitation is that we do not incorporate price-demand responses in our analysis. As in most municipalities, water consumption in El Paso follows an inverse and inelastic relationship with price [ 38 ]. However, we did not have confidence in applying price-demand relationships because that would assume that drivers of water use would remain constant 50 years into the future.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

2022

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Reduced river flows and groundwater depletion as a result of climate change and population growth have increased the effort and difficulty accessing and processing water. In turn, residential water costs from municipal utilities are predicted to rise to unaffordable rates for poor residential water customers. Building on a regional conjunctive use model with future climate scenarios and 50-year future water supply plans, our study communicates the effects of climate change on poor people in El Paso, Texas, as water becomes more difficult and expensive to obtain in future years. Four scenarios for future water supply and future water costs were delineated based on expected impacts of climate change and groundwater depletion. Residential water use was calculated by census tract in El Paso, using basic needs indoor water use and evaporative cooling use as determinants of household water consumption. Based on household size and income data from the US Census, fraction of household income spent on water was determined. Results reveal that in the future, basic water supply will be a significant burden for 40% of all households in El Paso. Impacts are geographically concentrated in poor census tracts. Our study revealed that negative impacts from water resource depletion and increasing populations in El Paso will lead to costly and difficult water for El Paso water users. We provide an example of how to connect future resource scenarios, including those affected by climate change, to challenges of affordability for vulnerable consumers.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 62%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

2022

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“…Big data collected from sensors are a necessary food for DL to generate those predictions but, at the same time, are a challenge requiring decisions to choose only relevant data from a huge data set [141]. The dire need for the development of decision support systems came due to an explosive economic urban growth [142,143]. Sustainability of water resources entails a complex urban water management system, integrating new technologies and decision-making systems to facilitate data modeling and consumption efficiency [144,145].…”

Section: Decision Support Systemsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Advanced Techniques for Monitoring and Management of Urban Water Infrastructures—An Overview

Hângan

Chiru

Arsene

et al. 2022

Water

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Water supply systems are essential for a modern society. This article presents an overview of the latest research related to information and communication technology systems for water resource monitoring, control and management. The main objective of our review is to show how emerging technologies offer support for smart administration of water infrastructures. The paper covers research results related to smart cities, smart water monitoring, big data, data analysis and decision support. Our evaluation reveals that there are many possible solutions generated through combinations of advanced methods. Emerging technologies open new possibilities for including new functionalities such as social involvement in water resource management. This review offers support for researchers in the area of water monitoring and management to identify useful models and technologies for designing better solutions.

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“…Given its prominence as a growing metropolitan economy located in a semi-arid desert setting, El Paso water consumption has been dissected in a number of empirical studies. Among the topics examined in these efforts are short-range consumption reactions to weather and economic stimuli [24], surface usage rights transfers [25], long-term historical forecast accuracy [26], and short-term consumption prediction accuracy during business cycle downturns [27]. Of course, El Paso still faces important policy questions regarding the provision of municipal water services.…”

Section: Previous Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

Municipal Water Consumption and Urban Economic Growth in El Paso

Pastor

Fullerton

2020

Water

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This study investigates the nexus between municipal water consumption and economic growth for El Paso, TX, USA. Located in the semi-arid southwestern United States, El Paso water consumption has been the subject of prior economic studies. However, the relationship between water consumption and economic growth has not been previously analyzed for El Paso or any other metropolitan economies in the region. Empirical results indicate that municipal water usage and real personal income are integrated of order one, but are not co-integrated. Given that, a vector autoregression model is estimated and a Granger causality test is performed. Estimation results show unidirectional causation from real income growth to water consumption, indicating that water conservation policies will not inhibit economic growth in this urban economy.

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Short‐Term Forecasting Analysis for Municipal Water Demand

Abstract: 2 0 0 3 2 0 0 7 2 0 1 1 50 0 40 30 20 10 E28 2016

Cited by 9 publications

References 54 publications

Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

Predictions of household water affordability under conditions of climate change, demographic growth, and fresh groundwater depletion in a southwest US city indicate increasing burdens on the poor

Advanced Techniques for Monitoring and Management of Urban Water Infrastructures—An Overview

Municipal Water Consumption and Urban Economic Growth in El Paso

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