Short-Term Extrapolation of the AIDS Epidemic

Healy, M. J. R.; Tillett, HilaryE.

doi:10.2307/2982184

Cited by 37 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…One approach to predict the future pattern of the epidemic is to use simple exponential or polynomial extrapolations of the observed trends to make predictions about the near future [58,68,122,142,195]. However, this approach has two main limitations: it may be sensitive to the type of functional form used to fit to historical data; it also provide no information or understanding of the HIV transmission mechanisms or the impact of interventions.…”

Section: Case Study: Hivmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of infectious diseases

et al. 2014

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Modern infectious disease epidemiology has a strong history of using mathematics both for prediction and to gain a deeper understanding. However the study of infectious diseases is a highly interdisciplinary subject requiring insights from multiple disciplines, in particular a biological knowledge of the pathogen, a statistical description of the available data and a mathematical framework for prediction. Here we begin with the basic building blocks of infectious disease epidemiologythe SIS and SIR type models -before considering the progress that has been made over the recent decades and the challenges that lie ahead. Throughout we focus on the understanding that can be developed from relatively simple models, although accurate prediction will inevitably require far greater complexity beyond the scope of this review. In particular, we focus on three critical aspects of infectious disease models that we feel fundamentally shape their dynamics: heterogeneously structured populations; stochasticity; and spatial structure. Throughout we relate the mathematical models and their results to a variety of real-world problems.

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Section: Case Study: Hivmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of infectious diseases

et al. 2014

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“…5.1.6 Short-term projections, based on an extrapolation of the existing data for reported cases of AIDS in the U.K., have been published by McEvoy & Tillett (1985) Mortimer (1985) Tillett & McEvoy (1986) and by Healy & Tillett (1988). Similar projections have been made for the U.S.A. by Curran et al (1985).…”

Section: Projecting the Spread Of Aidsmentioning

confidence: 84%

The impact of HIV infection and AIDS on insurance in the United Kingdom

Daykin¹,

Clark²,

Eves³

et al. 1988

J. Inst. Actuar.

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1.1 In March 1987 the Futures Committee of the Institute considered a preliminary report (Daykin, 1987) on the possible impact of AIDS in the United Kingdom and the consequences for life insurance. The Committee recommended the setting up of a Working Party to study the problem. The Working Party on AIDS was accordingly established, under the auspices of the Research Committee. The authors of this paper formed the membership of the Working Party, under the chairmanship of C. D. Daykin.

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“…Healy and Tillett (1988) Karon et al (1989) base their projections on the Box-Cox procedure, modeling the proportions of AIDS cases in population subgroups over time.…”

Section: Direct Extrapolationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical and Mathematical Approaches in HIV/AIDS Modeling: A Review

Schwager

Castillo‐Chavez

Hethcote

1989

Lecture Notes in Biomathematics

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This paper provides a brief introduction to the field and the literature of statistical and mathematical approaches to HIV I AIDS modeling. The emphasis is on succinct description of the methodology and on discussion of the work of some researchers who were unable to contribute to this volume. This review is not complete; however, it is complemented to a great degree by the partial reviews of the literature provided by several authors in their contributions to this volume. An additional objective of this introductory chapter is to describe to nonspecialists, in general terms, some of the main statistical and mathematical approaches currently used in problems related to AIDS epidemiology. This paper provides a brief introduction to the field and the literature of statistical and mathematical approaches to HIV /AIDS modeling. The emphasis is on succinct description of the methodology and on discussion of the work of some researchers who were unable to contribute to this volume. This review is not complete; however, it is complemented to a great degree by the partial reviews of the literature provided by several authors in their contributions to this volume. An additional objective of this introductory chapter is to describe to nonspecialists, in general terms, some of the main statistical and mathematical approaches currently used in problems related to AIDS epidemiology.

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Short-Term Extrapolation of the AIDS Epidemic

Cited by 37 publications

References 1 publication

Dynamics of infectious diseases

Dynamics of infectious diseases

The impact of HIV infection and AIDS on insurance in the United Kingdom

Statistical and Mathematical Approaches in HIV/AIDS Modeling: A Review

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