Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics

Shebalin, P.; Keilis‐Borok, V. I.; Gabrielov, Andrei; Zaliapin, Ilya; Turcotte, Donald L.

doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.033

Cited by 66 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The main goal of studying the evolution of stress-strain state (SSS) in loaded media, as a dynamic system, is the forecast of critical states. The forecasting of both place and time of possible large earthquakes and rock bursts is made empirically on the base of analysis of chosen sequence of earthquakes [Shapoval et al, 2011;Shebalin et al, 2006], and data of monitoring or precursors.…”

Section: Es4002mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fractal characteristics of seismic process in rock mass at mining: Mathematical modeling and analysis

Eremin¹

2016

Russ. J. Earth Sci.

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It is shown in the paper that the system of equations of solid mechanics, which has a mixed type, demonstrate the most common features of evolution of nonlinear dynamic systems. Previous investigations of seismic process were carried out on the base of simplified (sand-pile, land-slide) models which gave a graph of recurrence of seismic events and information about the state of self-organized criticality (SOC). However, these simplified models do not contain the information about the stress-strain state of the loaded geomedia and its proximity to the critical state. In the proposed paper the model of rock mass with excavation is constructed and general step of roof caving is modelled. On the base of these modeling the formation of critical state in loaded geomedia is studied. The fluctuations of stress-strain state at different points of geomedia are studied as the reflection of fracture process occurring in the main elements of rock mass: roof and floor, when the coal face is advanced. It is shown that the probability distribution function (PDF) dependencies, amplitude-frequency characteristics reflect the state of the rock mass and might be considered as the fractal characteristics of fracture process within. The evolution of these dependencies shows the dramatic change when the critical state is formed in the rock mass surrounding the underground opening. KEYWORDS: Mathematical modeling; fractal characteristics; coal mining; roof caving; stress fluctuations; critical states; damage accumulation.

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Section: Es4002mentioning

confidence: 99%

Fractal characteristics of seismic process in rock mass at mining: Mathematical modeling and analysis

Eremin¹

2016

Russ. J. Earth Sci.

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“…The diagonal connecting these two points corresponds to an unskilled forecast. Below this diagonal, the alarm function may bring additional predictive power (Shebalin et al 2006) with respect to a given level of significance α (Zechar and Jordan 2008, Equations 2 and 3). http://www.earth-planets-space.com/content/66/1/37…”

Section: Molchan Testsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…For a much longer period, several alarm-based models have been developed and tested by various research groups. Known examples are the global and regional tests of M8, CN, and RTP (Keilis-Borok and Kossobokov 1990;Keilis-Borok and Rotwain 1990;Peresan et al 1999;Shebalin et al 2006;Romashkova and Kossobokov 2004;Zechar 2010).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains

et al. 2014

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We describe an iterative method to combine seismicity forecasts. With this method, we produce the next generation of a starting forecast by incorporating predictive skill from one or more input forecasts. For a single iteration, we use the differential probability gain of an input forecast relative to the starting forecast. At each point in space and time, the rate in the next-generation forecast is the product of the starting rate and the local differential probability gain. The main advantage of this method is that it can produce high forecast rates using all types of numerical forecast models, even those that are not rate-based. Naturally, a limitation of this method is that the input forecast must have some information not already contained in the starting forecast. We illustrate this method using the Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) and Early Aftershocks Statistics (EAST) models, which are currently being evaluated at the US testing center of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability. During a testing period from July 2009 to December 2011 (with 19 target earthquakes), the combined model we produce has better predictive performance -in terms of Molchan diagrams and likelihood -than the starting model (EEPAS) and the input model (EAST). Many of the target earthquakes occur in regions where the combined model has high forecast rates. Most importantly, the rates in these regions are substantially higher than if we had simply averaged the models.

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“…Our study is mostly based on the results of JIANG and WU (2008). This approach is, to some extent, a development of the idea of KEILIS-BOROK et al, (2004), because originally RTP is based on the analysis of a set of intermediate-term precursors in an area of short-term anomalies, such as the region of long-range activation of seismicity detected by earthquake chains (SHEBALIN et al, , 2006. In our approach, the RTP is based on the analysis of PI/ RI anomalies within the preceding 5 years in an alarm region with increased probability of earthquakes on a 1 year time scale.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Reverse Tracing of Precursors Applied to the Annual Earthquake Forecast: Retrospective Test of the Annual Consultation in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region of Southwest China

Zhao

Jiang

et al. 2010

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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An Annual Consultation on the Likelihood of Earthquakes is regularly undertaken in continental China. It is a special kind of intermediate-term medium-range earthquake forecast and a practical service provided by seismological communities within the capability of modern seismology. One of the problems the Annual Consultation encounters is its false alarm rate, which has been higher than expected and has caused numerous controversies on the methodology and significance of the Annual Consultation. To tackle this problem we use the concept of reverse tracing of precursors (RTP) to analyze the long-term seismic activity in the alarm regions, or regions thought to have increased probability of earthquakes, as identified by the Annual Consultation. We apply the Pattern Informatics (PI) and relative intensity (RI) algorithms to the long-term estimation of seismic hazard in the RTP analysis. A retrospective study of the Sichuan-Yunnan region of southwest China, using the data from 1990 to 2003, shows that, by choosing the threshold proportion of overlapped areas between the long-term estimates and the Annual Consultation, the RTP analysis can correctly remove some of the false-alarm regions from the ''black list' and thus reduce the false-alarm rate of the Annual Consultation, without reducing the hit rate. Remarkably, the RTP approach, although originally proposed for short-term earthquake predictions, seems able to contribute to the Annual Consultation as well.

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Short-term earthquake prediction by reverse analysis of lithosphere dynamics

Cited by 66 publications

References 27 publications

Fractal characteristics of seismic process in rock mass at mining: Mathematical modeling and analysis

Fractal characteristics of seismic process in rock mass at mining: Mathematical modeling and analysis

Combining earthquake forecasts using differential probability gains

Reverse Tracing of Precursors Applied to the Annual Earthquake Forecast: Retrospective Test of the Annual Consultation in the Sichuan-Yunnan Region of Southwest China

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