Short-run impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis on the housing market in Poland

Trojanek, Radosław; Głuszak, Michał

doi:10.1016/j.frl.2022.103236

Cited by 32 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…Economic and financial situations may undergo unforeseen and sudden changes, as has recently happened with the COVID-19 diffusion [42][43][44][45] and the outbreak of war in Ukraine [46,47]. Such events strongly impact economic/financial variables such as energy prices, the costs of construction or discount/growth rates.…”

Section: Economic Assessment: Uncertain Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Is Uncertainty a Major Barrier to Investments for Building Energy Retrofit Projects in Wide City Compartments?

2023

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Along the roadmap to a Sustainable Real Estate-Scape, energy retrofit campaigns on wide city compartments represent a pivotal task, where the importance of the collaboration between the public and private sectors is crucial. Energy retrofit programs on building assets are subject to multiple uncertainty factors (e.g., climate, energy-economy forecasts, etc.) that act as a primary barrier to investment in this field. This paper aims to discuss risk management techniques to understand better how to deal with this kind of uncertainty. The research specifically addresses the techniques of sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo simulation, focusing first on the phase of variables selection and their probability definition, including climatic, environmental, energy, economic, financial, and stochastic parameters. In this article, it is suggested to include correlation coefficients in the input variables of risk analysis, preferring the two-dimension Monte Carlo simulation to its simple version, since the results are more reliable when separating aleatory from epistemic uncertainty; thus, the results are more reliable. Moreover, it is seen how a sensitivity analysis based on percentile variations of the inputs provides a more accurate representation of risk if compared to the most common sensitivity analysis based on percentage deviations of the inputs. Conducting a sensitivity analysis using percentile variations gives realistic and reliable results, reflecting the tailored definition of uncertainty around the inputs on the basis of specific market analyses or historical series.

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Section: Economic Assessment: Uncertain Inputsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Is Uncertainty a Major Barrier to Investments for Building Energy Retrofit Projects in Wide City Compartments?

2023

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“…Examples of the few extant studies include Efthymiou and Antoniou (2013), Crespo and Grêt-Regamey (2013), McCord et al (2014), Egner and Grabietz (2018), Tomal (2020), and Tomal and Helbich (2022). Apart from Trojanek et al (2021) and Trojanek and Gluszak (2022), to the best of our knowledge, no other studies have addressed the determinants of rents either in Warsaw or Amsterdam. Second, the markets in Amsterdam and Warsaw are characterized by different development levels.…”

Section: Study Area and Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

A spatial autoregressive geographically weighted quantile regression to explore housing rent determinants in Amsterdam and Warsaw

Tomal

Helbich

2022

Environment and Planning B: Urban Analytics and City Science

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A hedonic approach is typically performed to identify housing rental or sales price determinants. However, standard hedonic regression models disregard spatial autocorrelation of prices and heterogeneity of housing preferences across space and over price segments. We developed a spatial autoregressive geographically weighted quantile regression (GWQR-SAR) to address these shortcomings. Using data on the determinants of residential rental prices in Warsaw (Poland) and Amsterdam (The Netherlands) as case studies, we applied GWQR-SAR and rigorously compared its performance with alternative mean and quantile hedonic regressions. The results revealed that GWQR-SAR outperforms other models in terms of fitting accuracy. Compared with mean regressions, GWQR-SAR performs better, especially at the tails of the dependent variable distribution, where non-quantile models overestimate low rent values and underestimate high ones. Policy recommendations for the development of private residential rental markets are provided based on our results, which incorporate spatial effects and price segment requirements.

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“…Many Ukrainians are looking for housing on their own or through social and city services. The problem of refugee crisis on the housing market in Poland was analyzed in (Trojanek, & Gluszak, 2022).…”

Section: Residencementioning

confidence: 99%

Status Characteristics and Peculiarities of Accommodation of Ukrainian War Refugees in Germany (Konstanz)

Sydorov

Kovalska

2022

Socìol. stud.

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The crisis of forced migrants from Ukraine due to the war became one of the biggest in Europe in the 20th–21st centuries. A large increase in the number of refugees due to the war in Ukraine occurred after the start of the active phase of hostilities on February 24, 2022. Germany remains one of the countries that received the largest number of forced migrants from Ukraine. It is relevant to study the living conditions, employment, lifestyle, leisure time, well-being and future plans of forced migrants from Ukraine in Germany (using the example of the city of Konstanz). We conducted an exploratory web survey: respondents were interviewed using a formalized questionnaire with a series of open-ended questions implemented on the LimeSurvey online platform. Based on the results of the analysis, the main problems faced by Ukrainian refugees in the city of Konstanz were identified: living conditions and the lack of places in kindergartens. Both problems are characteristic of this city for many years before the war in Ukraine. Among the main features that distinguish forced migrants from Ukraine in connection with the war is a large share of highly qualified persons and persons with completed higher education. Plans for further stay in Germany or return to Ukraine deserve special attention – almost half of the respondents said that they plan to stay in Germany forever, and almost all the rest - to return to Ukraine as soon as it becomes possible. This information also brings new challenges for the country's migration policy and needs further discussion. In addition, a high sensitivity to questions about the property and financial status in Ukraine before the start of the Russian attack in 2022 was revealed.

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Short-run impact of the Ukrainian refugee crisis on the housing market in Poland

Cited by 32 publications

References 26 publications

Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Is Uncertainty a Major Barrier to Investments for Building Energy Retrofit Projects in Wide City Compartments?

Roadmap to a Sustainable Energy System: Is Uncertainty a Major Barrier to Investments for Building Energy Retrofit Projects in Wide City Compartments?

A spatial autoregressive geographically weighted quantile regression to explore housing rent determinants in Amsterdam and Warsaw

Status Characteristics and Peculiarities of Accommodation of Ukrainian War Refugees in Germany (Konstanz)

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