Short-lived climate forcers from current shipping and petroleum activities in the Arctic

Ødemark, Karianne; Dalsøren, S. B.; Samset, B. H.; Berntsen, Terje; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.; Myhre, Gunnar

doi:10.5194/acp-12-1979-2012

Cited by 64 publications

(47 citation statements)

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“…The tropospheric distributions of 137 chemical species are calculated, amongst them hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, and carbon containing gases and also sulfate, nitrate, primary organic, secondary organic, black carbon (BC), and sea salt aerosols. The gas and aerosol schemes are described in Skeie et al, 2011a, b;Berglen et al, 2004;Ødemark et al, 2012;Hoyle et al, 2007). OsloCTM2 modeled distributions of ozone and ozone precursors in coastal regions were evaluated and compared to observations in some former ship impact studies (Endresen et al, 2003;Dalsøren et al, 2007Dalsøren et al, , 2010.…”

Section: Model and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region

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Abstract. We quantify the concentrations changes and Radiative Forcing (RF) of short-lived atmospheric pollutants due to shipping emissions of NOx, SOx, CO, NMVOCs, BC and OC. We use high resolution ship emission inventories for the Arctic that are more suitable for regional scale evaluation than those used in former studies. A chemical transport model and a RF model are used to evaluate the time period 2004–2030, when we expect increasing traffic in the Arctic region. Two datasets for ship emissions are used that characterize the potential impact from shipping and the degree to which shipping controls may mitigate impacts: a high (HIGH) scenario and a low scenario with Maximum Feasible Reduction (MFR) of black carbon in the Arctic. In MFR, BC emissions in the Arctic are reduced with 70% representing a combination technology performance and/or reasonable advances in single-technology performance. Both scenarios result in moderate to substantial increases in concentrations of pollutants both globally and in the Arctic. Exceptions are black carbon in the MFR scenario, and sulfur species and organic carbon in both scenarios due to the future phase-in of current regulation that reduces fuel sulfur content. In the season with potential transit traffic through the Arctic in 2030 we find increased concentrations of all pollutants in large parts of the Arctic. Net global RFs from 2004–2030 of 53 mW m−2 (HIGH) and 73 mW m−2 (MFR) are similar to those found for preindustrial to present net global aircraft RF. The found warming contrasts with the cooling from historical ship emissions. The reason for this difference and the higher global forcing for the MFR scenario is mainly the reduced future fuel sulfur content resulting in less cooling from sulfate aerosols. The Arctic RF is largest in the HIGH scenario. In the HIGH scenario ozone dominates the RF during the transit season (August–October). RF due to BC in air, and snow and ice becomes significant during Arctic spring. For the HIGH scenario the net Arctic RF during spring is 5 times higher than in winter.

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Section: Model and Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region

et al. 2013

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“…The non-ferrous metal smelters on the Kola Peninsula (Nikel, Monchegorsk and Zapolyarnyy) and Norilsk in Northern Siberia were identified as major sources of anthropogenic pollution within the Arctic (Heidam et al, 1999Christensen, 1997) in addition to other anthropogenic emissions from the industrial sector, power generation and transport activities in the Arctic cities of Russia. Furthermore, there are also direct and indirect emissions resulting from exploitation of oil and gas in the region (Gautier et al, 2009) as well as ship emissions including cargo transport, tourist cruise and fishing vessels (Odemark et al, 2012).…”

Section: Q T Nguyen Et Al: Source Apportionment Of Particles At Stmentioning

confidence: 99%

Source apportionment of particles at Station Nord, North East Greenland during 2008–2010 using COPREM and PMF analysis

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Abstract. In order to develop strategies for controlling and reducing Arctic air pollution, there is a need to understand the basic mechanisms for determining the fate of air pollution in the Arctic. Sources of atmospheric particles at Station Nord (81 • 36 N, 16 • 40 W) in North East Greenland were evaluated for a two-year period from March 2008 to February 2010. Source apportionment using Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) and COnstrained Physical REceptor Model (COPREM) was based on measurements of black carbon, elements (Al, Si, S, K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Ga, As, Se, Br, Rb, Sr, Zr, Pb) and inorganic ions (SO 2 , SO 2− 4 , Na + , NH + 4 , NO − 3 , Cl − ). In general, source apportionment results by PMF and COPREM showed good agreement. Five sources adequately explained the measurements, which included a Marine and a Soil source of natural origin and three additional anthropogenic sources, which were all influenced by metal industries. One anthropogenic source was dominated by Zn of which air mass back trajectories using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYS-PLIT) model suggested a Canadian Arctic origin, despite certain influences from Southern and Eastern origins. Another anthropogenic source was characterised by high concentrations of Pb and As, which has been historically referred to as a Combustion source at Station Nord. The impacts of largescale industry in Siberia, Russia were evident through high Cu concentrations in both the Combustion source and an additional Cu/Ni source.Br correlated well with the anthropogenic species S and Pb though the elements are unlikely to have a common origin. More likely, sulphuric acid aerosols serve as transport containers for Br species of marine origin. Of particular relevance to climate, sources of black carbon were identified to be mainly anthropogenic and most probably of Siberian origin (80-98 %).

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“…Expansion of Arctic shipping could reduce net global ship emissions by decreasing traffic through the longer sea routes. However, there is concern that an increase in anthropogenic activity in the Arctic could contribute to regional climate forcing [Ødemark et al, 2012;Dalsøren et al, 2007].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of future Arctic shipping on high‐latitude black carbon deposition

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Geophysical Research Letters

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[1] The retreat of Arctic sea ice has led to renewed calls to exploit Arctic shipping routes. The diversion of ship traffic through the Arctic will shorten shipping routes and possibly reduce global shipping emissions. However, deposition of black carbon (BC) aerosol emitted by additional Arctic ships could cause a reduction in the albedo of snow and ice, accelerating snowmelt and sea ice loss. Here we use recently compiled Arctic shipping emission inventories for 2004 and 2050 together with a global aerosol model to quantify the contribution of future Arctic shipping to high-latitude BC deposition. Our results show that Arctic shipping in 2050 will contribute less than 1% to the total BC deposition north of 60 ı N due to the much greater relative contribution of BC transported from non-shipping sources at lower latitudes. We suggest that regulation of the Arctic shipping industry will be an insufficient control on high-latitude BC deposition.

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Short-lived climate forcers from current shipping and petroleum activities in the Arctic

Cited by 64 publications

References 47 publications

Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region

Environmental impacts of shipping in 2030 with a particular focus on the Arctic region

Source apportionment of particles at Station Nord, North East Greenland during 2008–2010 using COPREM and PMF analysis

Impact of future Arctic shipping on high‐latitude black carbon deposition

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