Shooting down the price: Evidence from Mafia homicides and housing prices

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the homicides by the Camorra, the Neapolitan Mafia, on housing prices in Naples. The study develops on a unique panel data set at the administrative district level for the period 2002–2018 of geo‐localized homicides involving innocent victims (denoted as IVH), which are treated as exogenous shocks that negatively affect housing demand. We find that the occurrence of such homicides causes a decrease in housing prices in the range of 2.5–3.8 percentage points. This effect decreases with the distance from an IVH and over time. These results are robust to the utilization of different econometric specifications and to the considerations of possible confounding factors such as other types of Camorra homicides.

Mafia doesn't live here anymore: Antimafia policies and housing prices

“…Second, we contribute to the urban literature by linking house prices with a new context, such as organized crime and assets reallocation. With the exception of the abovementioned contribution of Calamunci et al (2022), as well as that of Battisti et al (2022), who investigate the impact of mafia‐type organized crime on residential property values in the city of Naples and find that Camorra murders involving innocent people drive housing prices down by 2.5%–3.8%, the existing empirical literature has overlooked the nexus between organized crime and property prices in Italy. In this perspective, we focus on the effects of the SR and DC policies on the economic sphere and at a local level and expand the scope of our analysis to the entire Italian territory.…”

Localized effects of confiscated and re-allocated real estate mafia assets

“…Acemoglu, Robinson, and Santos 2013;Barone and Narciso 2015;Pinotti 2015;Buonanno, Prarolo, and Vanin 2016;De Feo and De Luca 2017;Ganau and Rodr� ıguez-Pose 2018;Alesina, Piccolo, and Pinotti 2019;Di Cataldo and Mastrorocco 2022;Le Moglie and Sorrenti 2022). Specifically, within this literature, this article relates to the studies examining the responsiveness of the housing market to mafia-related activities (Battisti et al, 2022) and to the works studying the societal implications of public policy initiatives against criminal organizations. 2…”

Closed for mafia: Evidence from the removal of mafia firms on commercial property values

“…Following this approach, we focus on organized crime, and more specifically, on how targeting mafia-infiltrated businesses affect commercial real estate values at the municipality level. Except for Battisti et al (2019), who show that district-level housing prices and rents fall in response to the occurrence of mafia homicides, the urban property literature on the impact of organized crime remains scarce. Besides, to the best of our knowledge, no previous work addresses the influence of criminal organizations on nonresidential property values, even though commercial space rents and prices constitute an essential input cost for firms across various industries.…”