Shockproof and Inclusive Fiscal Policies

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on the economies of most countries. What differed is the intensity of the impact, which ranged from mild economic contractions to devastating recessions and downturns. From a generic perspective, it is obvious to assume that high-income countries (HIC) would have faced lesser economic destruction than low- and middleincome countries (LMIC). However, a closer examination reveals that there are several factors that determined the impact of the pandemic on a country, as well as influenced its ability to respond. For instance, the existing economic structures and weaknesses strongly affected the countries’ ability to provide adequate fiscal stimulus. These weaknesses are following pro-cyclical policies and not creating fiscal buffers that would help build more resilience. An interesting finding that emerged was that the credit rating of a country was found to be the most important determinant of its Covid-19 fiscal response. This is one major area where HICs had a significant advantage compared to LMICs. Another key challenge that disproportionately affected LMICs was the lack of digitisation and access to the internet, which hampered economic growth as well as affected the countries’ ability to quickly disburse cash transfers and support. Research supported by the Covid-19 Responses for Equity (CORE) Programme – which is supported by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC) – has revealed some emerging lessons and recommendations to address these challenges and improve the resilience of countries to future shocks. One of the first and foremost recommendations is for countries to invest strongly in social protection and healthcare systems for its citizens, which would help build their resilience for future shocks. Adopting free trade policies and avoiding protectionism has also been an important lesson from the pandemic. Another key lesson is to employ a gender lens to fiscal and monetary policies as women have been disproportionately affected by the pandemic. Countries should also adopt expansionary monetary and fiscal policies as far as possible to increase the demand. Finally, countries also need to strengthen their financial institutions and mechanisms and reduce political interference, that would help maintain the asset quality of the banking sector.