Shock propagation from the Russia–Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

Moritz, Laber,; Klimek, Peter; Brückner, Martin; Yang, Liuhuaying; Thurner, Stefan

doi:10.1038/s43016-023-00771-4

Cited by 24 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…However, such possible future will not come for free, nor it will be a "natural decision", as it will not always be the superior approach, and its regional performance is scenario-dependent (Tables 3, 4, and 5). Supply shocks to global agricultural production and its supply chains, such as the ones resulting from covid-19 and the on-going war between Ukraine and Russia (FAO, 2023c;Laber et al, 2023), impose further challenges to future outcomes for regional and global agriculture.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Will Global Agriculture and Food Security Respond to Future Socioeconomic Shocks?

Martha Junior,

Lima

2024

CCT

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Os drivers da demanda e da oferta conectados aos “Caminhos Socioeconômicos Compartilhados” (SSP, no inglês) irão impactar a agricultura do futuro. A avaliação dos impactos desses drivers requer abordagens que vão além dos métodos e instrumentos tradicionais das ciências biofísicas. O presente trabalho utiliza um modelo de equilíbrio parcial estático para a agricultura global que incorpora na análise os efeitos das respostas econômicas à escassez que afetam a produção agrícola regional e global e o uso da terra. Até 2050, a produção agrícola se expandirá a taxas diferentes dependendo da região e cenário. Os ganhos de produtividade consolidar-se-ão como um dos principais drivers. O cenário SSP1 (“Sustentabilidade”), de rápido desenvolvimento tecnológico, oferece perspectiva promissora para aumentar a produção agrícola global e reduzir a pressão para expansão de área. No cenário SSP1, a insegurança alimentar cairá de maneira mais acentuada, para 2,8% da população mundial em 2050. Alcançar esse cenário Sustentabilidade exigirá um esforço global articulado para fortalecer as despesas em P&D agropecuário, acompanhado de uma estratégia bem desenhada para traduzir ciência em conhecimentos e em tecnologias capazes de resolver problemas que possam ser transferidos e adotados exitosamente pelos proprietários rurais de maneira a alavancar os ganhos de produtividade ao longo das próximas três décadas.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Will Global Agriculture and Food Security Respond to Future Socioeconomic Shocks?

Martha Junior,

Lima

2024

CCT

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“…There is extensive agreement that import-dependent low-and middle-income countries [44,[51][52][53]55] are most vulnerable. Examples are highly import-dependent regions in the Middle East and North Africa [56,57], but also the Sahel region [44,51,53]. Here, we complement the insights of such analyses by providing a comprehensive and cross-sectoral assessment of the cascading impacts of the geopolitical crisis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 94%

“…Projected food insecurity risks vary significantly: the United Nations' Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates that an additional 8-13 million people are at risk [47,48], Arndt et al expect 22 million people [49], while the World Food Program (WFP) estimates an additional 47 million at risk of undernourishment [50]. Various methods have been applied to assess the impacts of shocks on food security ranging from descriptive [44,[51][52][53][54], econometric [43], CGE models with explicit consumer classes [49] and network-based approaches [55,56]. There is extensive agreement that import-dependent low-and middle-income countries [44,[51][52][53]55] are most vulnerable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Cascading socio-economic and financial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

Auer,

Bosello,

Bressan

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Disruptions in global food and energy trade can trigger cascading socio-economic losses. Financial markets can amplify such losses and generate systemic cross- sectoral effects, e.g. on food insecurity. Our novel methodology links the real economy and financial markets to quantify such cascading losses and to capture amplification effects by financial markets. We study the Russia-Ukraine conflict and find large, regionally and sectorally heterogeneous cascading impacts. Com- paring with real data confirms that our approach captures several key impacts of the crisis: the energy price increase in Europe, the strong reaction of European commodity future markets with large benefits for fossil companies (equity values up to +54%) and losses for companies most exposed to the belligerents (up to -6%), and the worsening of food affordability especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America (additionally 10 million people at risk of hunger). Our analysis shows the importance of accounting for cascading risks and amplification effects to strengthen economic, financial, and food system resilience.

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“…Over the past few decades, global food trade has grown at a significant rate, essentially forming a complex global FTN [38], with each country having direct or indirect links to the others [39,40], which means that shocks will affect the entire world's food supply through the FTN. To potentially break through the global food security challenge and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, we focus on the evolution of the vulnerability and resilience of trade networks in periods of high-risk levels and the structural changes in trade networks aftershocks, because characterizing the FTN provides a deeper understanding of the vulnerability of food supply systems.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks

Xu,

Niu,

et al. 2024

Sustainability

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The global food trade network (FTN) is a critical infrastructure for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The FTN’s vulnerability to geopolitical conflicts, public health crises, and climate change events directly impacts food security and the ability to meet the SDGs. This study aims to analyze the dynamic evolution of the vulnerability of FTN, focusing on the period from 2000 to 2022, to aim for strategies for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of the global food system. Based on complex network analysis, we examine the structural characteristics and evolution of FTN for four major crops: soybeans, wheat, rice, and maize. We identify a trend towards increased network density and regionalization, with a decline in average shortest path length (ASPL) and an increase in the average clustering coefficient (ACC). These changes indicate a shift towards a more interconnected and resilient FTN in response to various shocks, including the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. The findings suggest that the global FTN has adapted to increase resilience, which is essential for achieving the SDGs related to food security and sustainable development. The study’s insights can guide policy interventions to further strengthen the network against future shocks and promote global food security.

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Shock propagation from the Russia–Ukraine conflict on international multilayer food production network determines global food availability

Cited by 24 publications

References 42 publications

How Will Global Agriculture and Food Security Respond to Future Socioeconomic Shocks?

How Will Global Agriculture and Food Security Respond to Future Socioeconomic Shocks?

Cascading socio-economic and financial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict

A Dynamic Evolutionary Analysis of the Vulnerability of Global Food Trade Networks

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