Ship Collision Risk Assessment Model for Qinzhou Port Based on Event Sequence Diagram

Abstract

Qinzhou Port is one of the most important ports in the "Beibu Gulf" of China. It is also the main hub port of the "21st century maritime silk road" strategy. Based on a basic collision risk assessment approach, an Event Sequence Diagram (ESD) model that explains the fourstage collision avoidance decision-making procedure is proposed from the perspectives of perception, cognition, decision, and execution. Using the historical data derived from collision accident reports from the Qinzhou Port waters from 2013 to 2017, as well as the data elicited from expert knowledge, a quantitative evaluation of probability distributions of different collision failure modes is performed. The results are also compared with relevant results from other types of navigation waters to analyse collision risk level of Qinzhou waters. At the same time, the main failures paths of collision avoidance decision making are identified. The proposed model can provide with an overall collision risk picture from a macro perspective.