Shifting Hardiness Zones: Trends in Annual Minimum Temperature

Krakauer, Nir Y.

doi:10.3390/cli6010015

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Over the past few decades, annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased at a faster rate than mean temperatures, with consequent increases in the incidence and severity of extreme weather events such as heat waves and drought (Hansen, Sato, & Ruedy, 2012; Kim et al., 2016; Krakauer, 2018; Wuebbles et al, 2017). The increased occurrence of extreme warming events is having a dramatic effect on many coastal wetland systems, such as increased fire frequency (Beckage, Platt, Slocum, & Panko, 2003) and mass mortality events (Lovelock, Feller, Reef, Hickey, & Ball, 2017).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Broad Ecological Implications Of Foliar Water Uptakementioning

confidence: 99%

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Foliar water uptake by coastal wetland plants: A novel water acquisition mechanism in arid and humid subtropical mangroves

et al. 2020

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1. Climate change alters freshwater availability in many ecosystems leading to shifts in distributions for many plants. Despite living exclusively in intertidal, saline environments, mangroves rely on non-saline water to maintain plant productivity. However, several mangrove species persist in arid environments where non-saline water from rain and groundwater sources are limited. Under these conditions, foliar water uptake from fog and mist may be an important water acquisition strategy. 2. We conducted a field experiment in arid Baja California Sur, Mexico along with a controlled mist chamber experiment (using seedlings sourced from humid subtropical region, Florida, USA) to show that three co-occurring, neotropical mangrove species, Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa and Rhizophora mangle, growing in both arid and humid environments can access water condensed on their leaves. 3. Foliar water uptake was greatest in A. germinans and lowest in R. mangle, possibly reflecting leaf traits associated with species-specific water balance strategies. In our field misting experiment, the contribution of foliar water uptake was higher in A. germinans (32 ± 2%) than L. racemosa (26 ± 2%) and R. mangle (16 ± 1%). Foliar water uptake also varied across locations for L. racemosa and R. mangle, with declining uptake towards both species' northern range limits in Baja California Sur, suggesting the distribution patterns of arid-zone mangroves may be affected by species-specific spatial variation in foliar water use. Within species, foliar water use was comparable across field and controlled experiments irrespective of source population (Baja California Sur vs. Florida), suggesting foliar water uptake is not an arid-zone adaptation, and is instead used as a supplemental water balance strategy in arid and humid neotropical mangroves. 4. Synthesis. Our findings indicate mangroves have the potential to access atmospheric water, such as rain, dew and sea fog, through their leaves to offset soil water deficits. Variation in foliar water use across these three neotropical mangrove species may influence mangrove species distributions across arid-zone and pseudo-drought (highly saline) environments, with implications for mangrove response to climate change.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Broad Ecological Implications Of Foliar Water Uptakementioning

confidence: 99%

Foliar water uptake by coastal wetland plants: A novel water acquisition mechanism in arid and humid subtropical mangroves

et al. 2020

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“…While much attention has focused on the impacts of changing mean temperatures, there is an increasing understanding that discrete events such as heat waves or hard freezes can drive ecological change at these ecotones (5, 6). Furthermore, over the past few decades annual minimum and maximum temperatures have increased faster than mean temperatures (7). However, most studies that have documented the ecological impacts of climate extremes have been based on a single episode, as it is difficult to obtain long-term time series of events that are, by definition, rare.…”

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confidence: 99%

Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove–salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years

Cavanaugh

Dangremond

Doughty

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

146

101

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Climate change is driving the tropicalization of temperate ecosystems by shifting the range edges of numerous species poleward. Over the past few decades, mangroves have rapidly displaced salt marshes near multiple poleward mangrove range limits, including in northeast Florida. It is uncertain whether such mangrove expansions are due to anthropogenic climate change or natural climate variability. We combined historical accounts from books, personal journals, scientific articles, logbooks, photographs, and maps with climate data to show that the current ecotone between mangroves and salt marshes in northeast Florida has shifted between mangrove and salt marsh dominance at least 6 times between the late 1700s and 2017 due to decadal-scale fluctuations in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events. Model projections of daily minimum temperature from 2000 through 2100 indicate an increase in annual minimum temperature by 0.5 °C/decade. Thus, although recent mangrove range expansion should indeed be placed into a broader historical context of an oscillating system, climate projections suggest that the recent trend may represent a more permanent regime shift due to the effects of climate change.

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“…Annual minimum temperatures have been increasing over the past several decades (Krakauer, 2018) and the localized effect of a lack of freeze events may have moved the region into a new growing zone where multiple species of mangroves can thrive year‐round. In other locations, oyster reefs have formed the base of future mangrove islands and the shift could be considered natural succession.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Replacement of oyster reefs by mangroves: Unexpected climate‐driven ecosystem shifts

McClenachan

Witt

Walters

2021

Global Change Biology

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Increases in minimum air temperatures have facilitated transitions of salt marshes to mangroves along coastlines in the southeastern United States. Numerous studies have documented mangrove expansion into salt marshes; however, a present‐day conversion of oyster reefs to mangrove islands has not been documented. Using aerial photographs and high‐resolution satellite imagery, we determined percent cover and number of mangrove patches on oyster reefs in Mosquito Lagoon, FL, USA over 74 years (1943–2017) by digitizing oyster reef and “mangrove on oyster reef” areas. Live oyster reefs present in 1943 were tracked through time and the mangrove area on every reef calculated for seven time periods. There was a 103% increase in mangrove cover on live oyster reefs from 1943 (6.6%) to 2017 (13.4%). Between 1943 and 1984, the cover remained consistent (~7%), while between 1984 and 2017, mangrove cover increased rapidly with a 6% year−1 increase in mangrove area on oyster reefs (198% increase). In 1943, 8.7% of individual reefs had at least one mangrove patch on them; by 2017, 21.8% of reefs did. Site visits found at least one mature Avicennia germinans on each tracked mangrove reef, with large numbers of smaller Rhizophora mangle, suggesting the post‐1984 mangrove increases were the result of increased R. mangle recruitment and survival. Escalation in the coverage and number of mangrove stands on oyster reefs coincided with a period that lacked extreme freeze events. The time since a temperature of ≤−6.6°C (A. germinans mortality threshold) and ≤−4°C (R. mangle mortality threshold) were significantly correlated with the increased ratio of mangrove area:oyster area, total mangrove area, and number of mangrove patches, with greater variation explained by time since ≤ −4°C. The lack of freezes could lead globally to an ecosystem shift of intertidal oyster reefs to mangrove islands near poleward mangrove range limits.

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Shifting Hardiness Zones: Trends in Annual Minimum Temperature

Cited by 11 publications

References 41 publications

Foliar water uptake by coastal wetland plants: A novel water acquisition mechanism in arid and humid subtropical mangroves

Foliar water uptake by coastal wetland plants: A novel water acquisition mechanism in arid and humid subtropical mangroves

Climate-driven regime shifts in a mangrove–salt marsh ecotone over the past 250 years

Replacement of oyster reefs by mangroves: Unexpected climate‐driven ecosystem shifts

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