Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

Guo, Zhengfu; Ferrer, Joaquin Vicente; Hürlimann, Marcel; Medina, Vicente; Puig-Polo, Càrol; Yin, Kunlong; Liu, Mingquan

doi:10.1016/j.gsf.2023.101542

Cited by 45 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 92 publications

(117 reference statements)

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“…The increase in built-up land is mainly distributed around government residences with relatively flat terrain and frequent socio-economic activities. Numerous studies have assessed the impact of LULC changes on landslide susceptibility [18,20,22,25]. However, human activities are carried out by road network [77].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tempo-Spatial Landslide Susceptibility Assessment from the Perspective of Human Engineering Activity

Zeng,

Guo,

Wang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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The expansion of mountainous urban areas and road networks can influence the terrain, vegetation, and material characteristics, thereby altering the susceptibility of landslides. Understanding the relationship between human engineering activities and landslide occurrence is of great significance for both landslide prevention and land resource management. In this study, an analysis was conducted on the landslide caused by Typhoon Megi in 2016. A representative mountainous area along the eastern coast of China—characterized by urban development, deforestation, and severe road expansion—was used to analyze the spatial distribution of landslides. For this purpose, high-precision Planet optical remote sensing images were used to obtain the landslide inventory related to the Typhoon Megi event. The main innovative features are as follows: (i) the newly developed patch generating land-use simulation (PLUS) model simulated and analyzed the driving factors of land-use land-cover (LULC) from 2010 to 2060; (ii) the innovative stacking strategy combined three strong ensemble models—Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM)—to calculate the distribution of landslide susceptibility; and (iii) distance from road and LULC maps were used as short-term and long-term dynamic factors to examine the impact of human engineering activities on landslide susceptibility. The results show that the maximum expansion area of built-up land from 2010 to 2020 was 13.433 km2, mainly expanding forest land and cropland land, with areas of 8.28 km2 and 5.99 km2, respectively. The predicted LULC map for 2060 shows a growth of 45.88 km2 in the built-up land, mainly distributed around government residences in areas with relatively flat terrain and frequent socio-economic activities. The factor contribution shows that distance from road has a higher impact than LULC. The Stacking RF-XGB-LGBM model obtained the optimal AUC value of 0.915 in the landslide susceptibility analysis in 2016. Furthermore, future road network and urban expansion have intensified the probability of landslides occurring in urban areas in 2015. To our knowledge, this is the first application of the PLUS and Stacking RF-XGB-LGBM models in landslide susceptibility analysis in international literature. The research results can serve as a foundation for developing land management guidelines to reduce the risk of landslide failures.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Tempo-Spatial Landslide Susceptibility Assessment from the Perspective of Human Engineering Activity

Zeng,

Guo,

Wang

et al. 2023

Remote Sensing

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“…As the slope values increase and accordingly the slope stability deteriorates, the balance of the material on the slope deteriorates, and slips along the slope occur. The slope values reclassi ed into ve classes as very low (< 5), low (5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)(15), moderate (15)(16)(17)(18)(19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25)(26)(27)(28)(29)(30), high (30)(31)(32)(33)(34)(35)(36)(37)(38)(39)(40)(41)(42)(43)(44)(45), very high (45-60), and extreme (> 60). The vegetation type, microclimate, rainfall, and runoff process can be affected by elevation.…”

Section: #Fig 2 Approximately Here#mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This worn heel part causes landslides to occur over time. The rainfall layer was obtained(Shu et al, 2019;Tyagi et al, 2022;Guo et al, 2023). The relative relief is identi ed as the variation between the maximum and minimum elevation at a speci c grid.…”

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confidence: 99%

Analyzing Landslide Susceptibility of Forest Roads by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Of Forest Planning Unit of Turkiye

Küçüker

2023

Preprint

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Forest roads are essential for the management of forest goods and services. However, the forest roads located in areas prone to landslides, particularly in Black Sea Region in Turkiye, can be damaged. Hence, the interest in Landslide Susceptibility Maps (LSMs) an important decision basis has become one of the crucial concerns in landslide risk areas in order to determine where to build new roads or to take necessary precautions on existing roads. This study aims to reveal the potential risk of forest roads for landslide in the Of Planning Unit. For this purpose, LSM was created by combining the MCDA Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) related to expert knowledge and Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Twelve landslide-related criteria, such as slope, bedrock type, relative relief, drainage density and frequency, rainfall, and land cover, were fabricated in raster format by ArcGIS domain. After the effects or weights of each main or sub factor were calculated by the pairwise comparison matrix in AHP, each layer was assigned to weight. The potential landslide areas were separated into five different categories, including extremely low, low, moderate, high, and extremely high through overlay analysis in ArcMap. Then overlapping analysis with forest roads and LSM was performed to obtain information on what planned roads are located in landslide-prone areas. The results indicated that this area is greatly susceptible to landslides. In addition, 18.45% of all roads are detected to be under high and extremely high risk, 28.7% of all roads are figured out to be under moderate susceptibility classes, and the remains are found to be under low and extremely low susceptibility classes. With respect to the high performance of AUC value (81%), the AHP technique can be used in landslide hazard risk management.

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“…The former approach mainly aims at diminishing post-fire disturbances by removing or modifying the legacies (e.g., beetle infestations) left by the fire event (Santolamazza-Carbone et al, 2011;Fernández and Vega, 2016) to recover some of a forest's natural and economic capital (Leverkus et al, 2020). On the other hand, the main concern of the latter perspective is that salvage logging may alter the soil properties, increase the erosion rate (Wagenbrenner et al, 2016) and the frequency of landslides in the burned hillslopes (Lingua et al, 2020) as it alters land cover (Hürlimann et al, 2022;Guo et al, 2023). This is an ongoing debate and the literature shows that salvage logging may or may not be the best management practice for a given site, and the method's suitability strongly depends on local conditions (Leverkus et al, 2021).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of post-wildfire management practices on vegetation recovery: Insights from the Sapadere fire, Antalya, Türkiye

et al. 2023

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Post-wildfire management actions mainly targeting the removal of salvage logs and burned trees is a common but controversial practice. Although it aims to regain some of the natural and economic value of a forest, it also requires disturbing burned areas, which may have some negative consequences affecting, for instance, the carbon cycle, soil erosion, and vegetation cover. Observations from different geographic settings contribute to this scientific debate, and yet, the spatiotemporal evolution of the post-fire road network developed as part of fire management practices and its influence on vegetation recovery has been rarely examined. Specifically, we still lack observations from Türkiye, though wildfires are a common event. This research examined the evolution of the vegetation cover in relation to post-fire road constructions and the resultant debris materials in areas affected by the 2017 Sapadere fire in Antalya, Türkiye. We used multi-sensor, multi-temporal optical satellite data and monitored the variation in both vegetation cover and road network from the pre-to post-fire periods between 2014 and 2021. Our results showed that fire management practices almost doubled the road network in the post-fire period, from 487 km to 900 km. Overall, 7% of the burned area was affected by these practices. As a result, vegetation cover in those areas shows only ∼50% recovery, whereas undisturbed areas exhibit ∼100% recovery 5 years after the event. Notably, such spatiotemporal analysis carried out for different burned areas would provide a better insight into the most suitable post-fire management practices. Our findings, in particular, show that the current practices need to be revisited as they cause a delay in vegetation recovery.

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Shallow landslide susceptibility assessment under future climate and land cover changes: A case study from southwest China

Cited by 45 publications

References 92 publications

Tempo-Spatial Landslide Susceptibility Assessment from the Perspective of Human Engineering Activity

Tempo-Spatial Landslide Susceptibility Assessment from the Perspective of Human Engineering Activity

Analyzing Landslide Susceptibility of Forest Roads by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Of Forest Planning Unit of Turkiye

The effect of post-wildfire management practices on vegetation recovery: Insights from the Sapadere fire, Antalya, Türkiye

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