Shallow landslide susceptibility analysis in relation to land use scenarios

Abstract

Shallow landslides can represent a destructive phenomena due to the absence of incipient movement evidence and to their high velocity, especially when turning into debris flows. The occurrence and the behavior of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides are often influenced by land use. In particular, the analysis of the changes in land use through time may represent a relevant indicator to evaluate different shallow landslide susceptibility scenarios. In this work, a semi-parametric nonlinear regression technique, namely the Generalized Additive Model (GAM), was applied for landslide susceptibility mapping. The model was applied to four different study sites which recently were affected by widespread rainfall-induced shallow landsliding: the Rio Frate and the Versa catchments (Oltrepo Pavese—southern Lombardy), the Vernazza catchment (Cinque Terre—Eastern Liguria) and the Pogliaschina catchment (Vara Valley—Eastern Liguria). Moreover, the elaboration of different land use scenarios were used to assess the influence of the land use change on the landslides occurrence

Potential future exposure of European land transport infrastructure to rainfall-induced landslides throughout the 21st century

“…Slope angles are known to be a key parameter in estimating susceptibility to developing earth flows (Donnarumma et al, 2013). The TRI is defined as the mean difference between a central pixel and its surrounding cells (Wilson et al, 2007) and can be used to quantify landscape heterogeneities, which could exert influence on the localisation of the triggering area of shallow landslides (Persichillo et al, 2016). Both properties are derived from the DEM using Horn's formula (Horn, 1981).…”

“…vineyards in the Upper Rhine Plain), while forests prevail with increasing altitude. It is broadly recognised in landslide research literature that forested areas favour terrain stability, while agricultural areas and abandoned cultivated lands that gradually recovered through natural vegetation are particularly susceptible to instability (Persichillo et al, 2017;Peruccacci et al, 2017;Petitta et al, 2015;Reichenbach et al, 2014;Beguerí, 2006).…”

Response of Terraced Slopes to a Very Intense Rainfall Event and Relationships with Land Abandonment: A Case Study from Cinque Terre (Italy)

“…Sediments coming from the slope increase the magnitude and energy of stream flows, favouring the occurrence of flooding phenomena (Gutierrez et al, 1998;Brandolini et al, 2012). Although land use changes have been recognized as one of the most important factors affecting the occurrence of rainfalltriggered landslides (Glade, 2003;Lasanta et al, 2001;Lasanta et al, 2005;Lesschen et al, 2008;DˈAmato Avanzi et al, 2015;Persichillo et al, 2016a;Persichillo et al, 2016b), few detailed quantitative studies have examined the influence of agricultural abandonment on the stability of terraced slopes. Thus, it is extremely important to quantify the geomorphic effects because of landslides on terraced slopes to gain relevant insight into landslide susceptibility.…”

Landslide-inventory of the Cinque Terre National Park (Italy) and quantitative interaction with the trail network

“…However, land use changes (e.g. farmland abandonment) that took place in the last century have led to terraced slope degradation with negative consequences on slopes stability, especially when intense rainfall occurs (Brandolini et al, 2018a;2018b;Cevasco, Brandolini, Scopesi, & Rellini, 2013a;Del Monte et al, 2015;Persichillo et al, 2016). Simultaneously, the exponential growth of tourism recorded during the last decades has produced a remarkable increase in landslide-related risk scenarios.…”