ShakeOut‐D: Ground motion estimates using an ensemble of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault with spontaneous rupture propagation

Olsen, Kim B.; Day, Steven M.; Dalguer, L. A.; Mayhew, John E.; Cui, Yifeng; Zhu, Jin; Cruz‐Atienza, V. M.; Roten, Daniel; Maechling, P. J.; Jordan, Thomas H.; Okaya, D. A.; Chourasia, Amit

doi:10.1029/2008gl036832

Cited by 114 publications

(82 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…The dynamic rupture simulations are carried out with the 4th order staggered-grid 3D-FD code of Olsen et al (2006Olsen et al ( , 2008Olsen et al ( , and 2009), which solves the velocity-stress wave equation explicitly. The code uses the highly accurate staggered-grid split node (SGSN) fault representation method for dynamic rupture simulations developed by Dalguer and Day (2007).…”

Section: Stochastic Dynamic Rupture Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pseudodynamic Source Characterization for Strike-Slip Faulting Including Stress Heterogeneity and Super-Shear Ruptures

Mena

Dalguer

Martin

2012

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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Reliable ground-motion prediction for future earthquakes depends on the ability to simulate realistic earthquake source models. Though dynamic rupture calculations have recently become more popular, they are still computationally demanding. An alternative is to invoke the framework of pseudodynamic (PD) source characterizations that use simple relationships between kinematic and dynamic source parameters to build physically self-consistent kinematic models. Based on the PD approach of Guatteri et al. (2004), we propose new relationships for PD models for moderate-to-large strike-slip earthquakes that include local supershear rupture speed due to stress heterogeneities. We conduct dynamic rupture simulations using stochastic initial stress distributions to generate a suite of source models in the magnitude M w 6-8. This set of models shows that local supershear rupture speed prevails for all earthquake sizes, and that the local rise-time distribution is not controlled by the overall fault geometry, but rather by local stress changes on the faults. Based on these findings, we derive a new set of relations for the proposed PD source characterization that accounts for earthquake size, buried and surface ruptures, and includes local risetime variations and supershear rupture speed. By applying the proposed PD source characterization to several well-recorded past earthquakes, we verify that significant improvements in fitting synthetic ground motion to observed ones is achieved when comparing our new approach with the model of Guatteri et al. (2004). The proposed PD methodology can be implemented into ground-motion simulation tools for more physically reliable prediction of shaking in future earthquakes.

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Section: Stochastic Dynamic Rupture Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pseudodynamic Source Characterization for Strike-Slip Faulting Including Stress Heterogeneity and Super-Shear Ruptures

Mena

Dalguer

Martin

2012

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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“…The predictions by the NGA relations are far lower [ Figure 10c]. The large red blob in the ShakeOut motions, attributed to a wave-guide through Whittier-Narrows by [66], cannot be found in the NGA predictions. Rupture directivity and wave-guide focusing, that clearly may have a strong influence on ground motions, are not explicitly accounted for in the NGA relations.…”

Section: Ground Motion Simulationmentioning

confidence: 94%

Probabilistic Estimates of Ground Motion in the Los Angeles Basin from Scenario Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Mourhatch

Krishnan

2018

Geosciences

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Kinematic source inversions of past earthquakes in the magnitude range of 6-8 are used to simulate 60 scenario earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. The unilateral rupture scenario earthquakes are hypothetically located at 6 locations spread out uniformly along the southern section of the fault, each associated with two hypocenters and rupture directions. Probabilities of occurrence over the next 30 years are assigned to each of these earthquakes by mapping the probabilities of 10,445 plausible earthquakes postulated for this section of the fault by the Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. Three-component broadband ground motion histories are computed at 636 sites in the greater Los Angeles metropolitan area by superposing short-period (0.2-2.0 s) empirical Green's function synthetics on top of long-period (>2.0 s) spectral element synthetics. The earthquake probabilities and the computed ground motions are combined to develop probabilistic estimates of ground shaking in the region from San Andreas fault earthquakes over the next 30 years. The results could be useful in city planning, emergency management, and building code enhancement.

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“…While dynamic source models may better characterize earthquake source physics, the theory is more complex and less mature when compared with kinematic source modeling (e.g., the state of stress in the earth and the fault friction law are not known; they are not as well-constrained as kinematic source parameters such as slip). Simulating ground motion reliably by combining dynamic rupture models with seismic-wave propagation (e.g., Graves et al, 2008;Olsen et al, 2008;Olsen et al, 2009) would be hard to achieve near real-time using the present state of knowledge and computational tools. Because of this, kinematic source models are currently more suitable for application to the rapid response estimation problem.…”

Section: Source Model Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rapid Estimation of Damage to Tall Buildings Using Near Real-Time Earthquake and Archived Structural Simulations

Krishnan¹,

Casarotti²,

Goltz³

et al. 2012

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America

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This article outlines a new approach to rapidly estimate the damage to tall buildings immediately following a large earthquake. The preevent groundwork involves the creation of a database of structural responses to a suite of idealized ground-motion waveforms. The postevent action involves (1) rapid generation of an earthquake source model, (2) near real-time simulation of the earthquake using a regional spectral-element model of the earth and computing synthetic seismograms at tall building sites, and (3) estimation of tall building response (and damage) by determining the best-fitting idealized waveforms to the synthetically generated ground motion at the site and directly extracting structural response metrics from the database. Here, ground-velocity waveforms are parameterized using sawtoothlike wave trains with a characteristic period (T), amplitude (peak ground velocity, PGV), and duration (number of cycles, N). The proof-of-concept is established using the case study of one tall building model. Nonlinear analyses are performed on the model subjected to the idealized wave trains, with T varying from 0.5 s to 6.0 s, PGV varying from 0:125 m=s, and N varying from 1 to 5. Databases of peak transient and residual interstory drift ratios (IDR), and permanent roof drift are created. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the rapid response approach by applying it to synthetic waveforms from a simulated 1857-like magnitude 7.9 San Andreas earthquake. The peak IDR, a key measure of structural performance, is predicted well enough for emergency response decision making.

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ShakeOut‐D: Ground motion estimates using an ensemble of large earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault with spontaneous rupture propagation

Cited by 114 publications

References 14 publications

Pseudodynamic Source Characterization for Strike-Slip Faulting Including Stress Heterogeneity and Super-Shear Ruptures

Pseudodynamic Source Characterization for Strike-Slip Faulting Including Stress Heterogeneity and Super-Shear Ruptures

Probabilistic Estimates of Ground Motion in the Los Angeles Basin from Scenario Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault

Rapid Estimation of Damage to Tall Buildings Using Near Real-Time Earthquake and Archived Structural Simulations

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