ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations

Cauzzi, Carlo; Fäh, Donat; Wald, David J.; Clinton, John; Losey, Stéphane; Wiemer, Stefan

doi:10.1007/s11069-018-3248-5

Cited by 10 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 74 publications

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“…Generally speaking, Earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above are more likely to cause collapses and landslides. The higher the intensity, the more loose solid materials will be produced and the larger the scope of triggering debris flows will be (Cauzzi et al, 2018). In recent years, the Wenchuan earthquake (May 12, 2008), the Lushan earthquake (April 20, 2013), the Jiuzhaigou earthquake (July 7, 2017), and the Changning earthquake (June 6, 2019) all had a great impact on Ganluo County, especially the Lushan earthquake.…”

Section: Influence Of Seismic Activities On Debris Flow Initiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the formation mechanism of debris flows after earthquakes – A case study of the Legugou debris flow

Fu²,

Zhong³

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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By means of the Graphic Method, Gray Correlation Method and Frequency Method, the total amount of loose solid materials, the amount of loose solid materials per unit area in the source area, and the risk degree and critical rainfall of the study area are determined, respectively. On the basis of the calculation results, the total amount of loose solid materials is 57.2 × 104 m3, the amount of loose solid materials per unit area is 0.13 m3/m2 (greater than 0.1 m3/m2), which better meets the initiation conditions for dilute debris flow. The Hazard Evaluation Model of Debris Flow in earthquake areas is established by the gray correlation method and the hazard index H = 0.725 is determined. According to the hazard classification standards for debris flows in earthquake areas, the debris flow in Lecugou was moderate after the earthquake. The critical rainfall value of 1H, calculated by the frequency method, ranged from 17.45 to 22.21 mm (Re = 25 mm) and 8.17 to 13.01 mm (Re = 50 mm). The critical rainfall value at 10 min ranged from 6.23 to 8.44 mm (Re = 25 mm) and 2.92 to 5.13 mm (Re = 50 mm), respectively. The maximum rainfall intensity of 45.5 mm/h was reached between 10:00 and 11:00 on July 29, 2019 and the cumulative rainfall reached 144 mm, far exceeding the critical rainfall of Legugou. Under the influence of earthquakes and human activities, the loose solid source amount and loose solid source amount per unit area increased greatly, and the critical rainfall for debris flow after earthquakes decreased sharply, which induced debris flows under the influence of heavy rainfall. This research will be helpful for the establishment of monitoring and early warning systems based on artificial intelligence methods, and can greatly improve the effectiveness of disaster prevention and mitigation.

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Section: Influence Of Seismic Activities On Debris Flow Initiationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of the formation mechanism of debris flows after earthquakes – A case study of the Legugou debris flow

Fu²,

Zhong³

et al. 2022

Front. Ecol. Evol.

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“…The most probable triggers of the slope failures in Swiss lakes are earthquake shaking or sediment overloading/excess pore water pressure (Stegmann et al 2007;Wiemer and Kopf 2017;Roesner et al 2019;Kremer et al 2020). Although Switzerland is a country with moderate seismicity where events with a moment magnitude M w ≥ 5.5 occur quite rarely (28 of such events have been identified for the past 700 years; Fäh et al 2016;Wiemer et al 2016;Cauzzi et al 2018), there are historical reports and prehistorical traces of earthquake-triggered tsunamis in Swiss lakes and Lake Lucerne in particular.…”

Section: Geological Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geotechnical characterization and stability analysis of subaqueous slopes in Lake Lucerne (Switzerland)

et al. 2022

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Tsunamis occur not only in marine settings but also in lacustrine environments. Most of the lacustrine tsunamis are caused by seismically- or aseismically-triggered mass movements. Therefore, an assessment of the stability of subaqueous slopes is crucial for tsunami hazard assessment in a lake. We selected Lake Lucerne (Switzerland) as a natural laboratory to perform an in-depth geotechnical characterization of its subaqueous slopes. This lake experienced documented tsunamis in 1601 and 1687. Some of its slopes still bear sediment volumes with a potential for tsunamigenic failure. To identify such slopes, we interpreted available reflection seismic data and analyzed the bathymetric map. Then, we performed 152 dynamic Cone Penetration Tests with pore pressure measurement (CPTu) and retrieved 49 sediment cores at different locations in the lake. These data were used to characterize the failure-prone sediments and to evaluate the present-day static stability of subaqueous slopes. Obtained results allowed the definition of three classes of slopes in terms of static stability: unstable slopes, stable slopes close to the unstable state, and stable areas. Non-deltaic slopes with thicker unconsolidated fine-grained sediment drape and moderate-to-high slope gradients (> 5–10°) have the lowest Factor of Safety. In agreement with previous studies, the failure plane for the non-deltaic slopes is embedded within the fine-grained glaciolacustrine sediments. Deltaic slopes with prevailing coarse-grained sediments mostly appear statically stable. Finally, we generalized the measured undrained shear strength profiles $${s}_{u}(z)$$ s u ( z ) into the depth-dependent power-law models. These models define the $${s}_{u}$$ s u of Lake Lucerne’s sediments and can be applied to other lakes with similar sedimentation history.

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“…Making statements about likely locations of mass failures requires an understanding of factors and processes relevant for slope instabilities as well as their spatial variability (Fischer et al, 2012). Without knowing the local site conditions, topography is often used as a proxy for potential mass movements (e.g., Coe et al, 2004;Fernandes et al, 2004;Cauzzi et al, 2018). The Fahrböschung (Heim 1932…”

Section: Ip1: Potential For Saemmmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Simplified Classification of the Relative Tsunami Potential in Swiss Perialpine Lakes Caused by Subaqueous and Subaerial Mass-Movements

Strupler¹,

Evers

Kremer³

et al. 2020

Front. Earth Sci.

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Historical reports and recent studies have shown that tsunamis can also occur in lakes where they may cause large damages and casualties. Among the historical reports are many tsunamis in Swiss lakes that have been triggered both by subaerial and subaqueous mass movements (SAEMM and SAQMM). In this study, we present a simplified classification of lakes with respect to their relative tsunami potential. The classification uses basic topographic, bathymetric, and seismologic input parameters to assess the relative tsunami potential on the 28 Swiss alpine and perialpine lakes with a surface area >1 km 2. The investigated lakes are located in the three main regions "Alps," "Swiss Plateau," and "Jura Mountains." The input parameters are normalized by their range and a k-means algorithm is used to classify the lakes according to their main expected tsunami source. Results indicate that lakes located within the Alps show generally a higher potential for SAEMM and SAQMM, due to the often steep surrounding rock-walls, and the fjord-type topography of the lake basins with a high amount of lateral slopes with inclinations favoring instabilities. In contrast, the missing steep walls surrounding lakeshores of the "Swiss Plateau" and "Jura Mountains" lakes result in a lower potential for SAEMM but favor inundation caused by potential tsunamis in these lakes. The results of this study may serve as a starting point for more detailed investigations, considering field data.

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ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations

Cited by 10 publications

References 74 publications

Analysis of the formation mechanism of debris flows after earthquakes – A case study of the Legugou debris flow

Analysis of the formation mechanism of debris flows after earthquakes – A case study of the Legugou debris flow

Geotechnical characterization and stability analysis of subaqueous slopes in Lake Lucerne (Switzerland)

A Simplified Classification of the Relative Tsunami Potential in Swiss Perialpine Lakes Caused by Subaqueous and Subaerial Mass-Movements

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