Severe Drought Event in Indonesia Following 2015/16 El Niño/positive Indian Dipole Events

Lestari, Deni Okta; Sutriyono, Edy; Kadir, Sabaruddin; Iskandar, Iskhaq

doi:10.1088/1742-6596/1011/1/012040

Cited by 19 publications

(12 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) is one of the dominant interannual variabilities in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO), with a positive (negative) IOD being characterized by warm (cold) SSTAs in the western TIO and cold (warm) SSTAs in the southeastern TIO (Saji et al 1999;Webster et al 1999). IOD events strongly influence the climate over the Indian Ocean and surrounding countries, and even on remote regions, for example, Europe, northeast Asia, and North and South America (Birkett et al 1999;Latif et al 1999;Webster et al 1999;Saji and Yamagata 2003;Cai et al 2014;Nur'utami and Hidayat 2016;Lestari et al 2018). Moreover, IOD events also contribute to variabilities in oceanic processes, such as the Indonesian throughflow, the equatorial undercurrent of the Indian Ocean, and the eastern Indian Ocean upwelling (Chen et al 2015(Chen et al , 2016a.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three Types of Positive Indian Ocean Dipoles and Their Relationships with the South Asian Summer Monsoon

et al. 2022

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The relationship between the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) and the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), which remains a subject of controversy, was investigated using data analyses and numerical experiments. We categorized IOD events according to their sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) pattern: Type-W and Type-E are associated with stronger SSTA amplitudes in the western and eastern poles of the IOD, respectively, while Type-C has comparable SSTA amplitudes in both poles during boreal autumn. Type-W is associated with a weak SASM from May to summer, which contributes to substantial warming of the western pole in autumn; the east–west SST gradient linked to the warming of the western pole causes weak southeasterly wind anomalies off Sumatra and feeble and cold SSTAs in the eastern pole during the mature phase. Type-E is associated with a strong SASM and feeble warming of the western pole; interaction between the strong SASM and cold SSTAs in the eastern pole in summer results in strong southeasterly wind anomalies off Sumatra and substantial cooling of the eastern pole during the mature phase. For Type-C, warming of the western pole and cooling of the eastern pole develop synchronously without apparent SASM anomalies, and reach comparable intensities during the mature phase. Observations and numerical simulation results both indicate the role of disparate SASM anomalies in modulating SSTA patterns during the development of positive IODs. Warming of the tropical Indian Ocean becomes established in the winter and spring following Type-W and Type-C IODs, but not following Type-E events.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Three Types of Positive Indian Ocean Dipoles and Their Relationships with the South Asian Summer Monsoon

et al. 2022

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“…During 2015/16, the TPO witnessed a super El Niño [4,10], which terminated at the end of boreal spring 2016 [11,12]. Following the termination of super El Niño, however, the TPO did not experience a strong La Niña Modoki event as it did in 1998 just after an extreme El Niño in 1997.…”

Section: Comparison With 1998/99 La Niña Modoki Eventmentioning

confidence: 97%

Impact of 2016 Weak La Niña Modoki Event Over the Indonesian Region

Lestari¹

2019

GEOMATE

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After an extreme 2015/16 El Niño phenomenon, the Pacific Ocean witnessed a La Niña Modoki event, while a strong negative IOD simultaneously took place in the Indian Ocean. The event was weaker in intensity and shorter in time, compared to the similar case in 1998/99. Using the combined monthly sea surface temperature (SST) derived from the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature (OISST) version 2, the atmospheric reanalysis data from the National Center for Environmental Prediction and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) and the precipitation data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the dynamics and possible impact of this event were investigated. The 2016 La Niña Modoki initially developed in boreal summer, subsequently matured in autumn, and abruptly terminated in winter. This short-lived La Niña Modoki was associated with a unique SST anomalies pattern in the Indo-Pacific region. Strengthened easterly winds in the central tropical Pacific Ocean was associated with a warming SST over the western Pacific Ocean and triggered convergence in the lower atmosphere causing upward motion and enhanced convective process over the Indonesian region. As a consequent, most of the Indonesian region experienced excess precipitation during boreal summer, except in the northern part of the Sumatra Island.

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“…Hal tersebut menjadi alasan untuk memahami kondisi iklim ekstrem lebih jauh. Kombinasi El Nino di Samudera Pasifik dan IOD positif di Samudera Hindia menyebabkan Indonesia mengalami kemarau berkepanjangan (Lestari et al, 2018;Pan et al, 2018). Fenomena ENSO dan IOD berperan penting terhadap kondisi ekstrim curah hujan (Hidayat et al, 2016;Hoell and Cheng, 2018;Krishnaswamy et al, 2015), sehingga berdampak terhadap kondisi lingkungan (Felton and Smith, 2017;Leigh et al, 2015), dan sosial (Curtis et al, 2017) dari skala regional hingga global.…”

Section: Tren Curah Hujan Ekstrem Pulau Sumatera Tahun 1981-2010unclassified

Trend of Extreme Precipitation over Sumatera Island for 1981-2010

Misnawati

Perdanawanti²

2019

J.Agromet

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Extreme climate events have significant impacts on various sectors such as agriculture, ecosystem, health and energy. The issue would lead to economic losses as well as social problems. This study aims to investigate the trend of extreme precipitation in Sumatera Island based on observed data during 30-year period, 1981–2010. There are ten indices of climate extreme as defined by ETCCDMI, which were tested in this study, including PRCPTOT, SDII, CDD, CWD, R10, R50, R95p, R99p, Rx1day and Rx5day. Then, the trend was analyzed based on the Mann-Kendall statistic, performed on the time series of precipitation data. The result shows that there was positive trend of extreme precipitation found in most stations over Sumatera, either statistically significant or insignificant. In each extreme precipitation indices, the number of observed stations indicating the insignificant change is higher than the significant one. This research also found that some indices including SDII, Rx1day, R50, R95p and R99p, showed a significantly-positive trend followed by a higher intensity of wetter and heavier events of extreme precipitation over Sumatera. On the other hand, the wet spell (CWD) index shows a negative trend (α=0.05).

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Severe Drought Event in Indonesia Following 2015/16 El Niño/positive Indian Dipole Events

Cited by 19 publications

References 10 publications

Three Types of Positive Indian Ocean Dipoles and Their Relationships with the South Asian Summer Monsoon

Three Types of Positive Indian Ocean Dipoles and Their Relationships with the South Asian Summer Monsoon

Impact of 2016 Weak La Niña Modoki Event Over the Indonesian Region

Trend of Extreme Precipitation over Sumatera Island for 1981-2010

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