Severe convective storms, flash floods and global warming in Pennsylvania

Yarnal, Brent; Frakes, Brent; Bowles, Ian A.; Johnson, Dennis L.; Pascale, P.

doi:10.1002/j.1477-8696.1999.tb06416.x

Cited by 5 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 13 publications

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“…During this decade, there is an upward trend in both precipitation and streamflow. The monthly, unsmoothed curves illustrate that high streamflow results from basin-wide weather and climate events, such as the March 1993 'superstorm,' the spring melt after the record snow year of 1993-94, the January 1996 flood (Yarnal et al 1997), and the record wet year of 1996 (Yarnal et al 1999). In contrast, drought periods, such as the 1991 and 1995 basin-wide droughts, are more difficult to discern in the monthly data, but are readily apparent in the smoothed curves.…”

Section: Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The exceptions include periodic droughts and occasional disruption or contamination by floods, pathogen outbreaks, and other anthropogenic or natural disasters (e.g. Yarnal et al 1997Yarnal et al , 1999. If climate change were to bring increased climate variation with more droughts, floods, and water-borne pathogen outbreaks, then the ability of future supply to meet future demand is uncertain.…”

Section: Freshwater Usementioning

confidence: 99%

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Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

Neff¹,

Chang²,

Knight³

et al. 2000

Clim. Res.

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The sensitivity of hydrology and water resources to climate variation and climate change is assessed for the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) of the United States. Observed streamflow, groundwater, and water-quality data are shown to vary in association with climate variation. Projections of future streamflow, groundwater, and water quality are made using models determined from these associations and are applied to 2 transient general circulation model (GCM) scenarios. Regional streamflow increases in one scenario, but decreases in the other; both scenarios result in changes in the seasonality of peak flows. Response of groundwater to climate change depends on the GCM scenario used. Canadian Climate Center (CCC) scenarios suggest recharge will occur earlier in the year, and that seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels will be less extreme. Hadley Center scenarios suggest recharge will occur earlier in the medium term, but later in the long term, with seasonal fluctuations in general being more extreme. Both scenarios show that nutrient loads can be expected to increase in winter and spring because of the expected increase in streamflow. Projected decreases in streamflow and associated nutrient fluxes in July and August could ameliorate problems associated with estuarine stratification and eutrophication in late summer. These projections demonstrate that future hydrology and water resources will be influenced by climate change, but that uncertainty in accurately projecting that influence will continue until model scenarios improve.

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Section: Streamflowmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Freshwater Usementioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

Neff¹,

Chang²,

Knight³

et al. 2000

Clim. Res.

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“…) CLIMATE VARIABILITY, CHANGE AND BASIN HYDROLOGY Climate variability and change will have a direct impact on water resources. An increase in summertime meso-scale storm systems can induce localized flooding (Smith et al, 1996;Yarnal et al, 1999), while synoptic-scale rainfall can trigger widespread regional flood events (Fink et al, 1996;Yarnal et al, 1997). Current projections are that the hydrologic cycle will increase as global temperatures rise (Houghton et al, 1996).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

AN EVALUATION OF TWO HYDROLOGIC MODELS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS¹

Frakes¹,

1999

J American Water Resour Assoc

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Understanding the effects of climate change on water resources requires coupling atmospheric and hydrologic models. With the wide array of hydrologic models, from simple empirical to complex physically based, it is not clear which is preferable to simulate hydrologic variations over long time scales. To address this issue, a black‐box artificial neural network (ANN) model was compared to a distributed parameter conceptual Geographic Information System based Hydrologic Modeling System (GIS‐HMS). Both models computed daily direct surface runoff in four sub‐basins of the West Branch of the Susquehanna River Basin, Pennsylvania and were evaluated with five objective functions. Overall, results were comparable between models. However, the ANN was favored in the larger sub‐basins, while GIS‐HMS was more accurate in the smaller catchments. Both models were impaired by the poor spatial and temporal resolution of precipitation data and the simplified representation of antecedent soil‐moisture conditions. In the context of climate change, where simulations are limited by computing power, results suggest that both models are appropriate. When detailed simulations are essential, GIS‐HMS is a preferable model to use. On the other hand, the ANN model is more suitable when multiple scenarios require immediate analysis and the distributed qualities of runoff are not required.

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“…Climate change is also seen by some as creating potential new threats (e.g. Obasi, 1994;Woodhouse and Overpeck, 1998;Yarnal et al, 1999;Parry et al, 2001). There are already very large disparities in the nature and magnitude of hazard losses in different parts of the world; differences mainly attributable to socioeconomic factors (Degg, 1992).…”

Section: Nature and Variety Of The Threatsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some projections suggest an increase in the risk from droughts, floods, heat waves, tropical cyclones and storms (e.g. Changnon and Changnon, 1992;Bruce, 1994;Yarnal et al, 1999). There is evidence that diseases such as malaria and dengue fever, carried by mosquitoes, are undergoing resurgence and redistribution, possibly in response to global warming (Epstein et al, 1998).…”

Section: Climatic Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Crime and Climate

LeBeau¹

Encyclopedia of World Climatology

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Severe convective storms, flash floods and global warming in Pennsylvania

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

AN EVALUATION OF TWO HYDROLOGIC MODELS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS¹

Crime and Climate

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Severe convective storms, flash floods and global warming in Pennsylvania

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

Impact of climate variation and change on Mid-Atlantic Region hydrology and water resources

AN EVALUATION OF TWO HYDROLOGIC MODELS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS1

Crime and Climate

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AN EVALUATION OF TWO HYDROLOGIC MODELS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS¹