Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia: A Medical Geographic Perspective

Shannon, Gary W.; Willoughby, Jason

doi:10.2747/1538-7216.45.5.359

Cited by 26 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 42 publications

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“…The fear of 1918-19 Spanish influenza, the "deadliest plague in history," with its extreme severity and gravity of clinical symptoms, is still present in the research and general community (Barry, 2004). The fear factor was influential in the world's response to SARS -a coronavirus not previously detected in humans (Shannon and Willoughby, 2004;Peiris et al, 2004). It is also reflected in the response to COVID-19.…”

Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

2020

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The outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high. AbstractThe outbreak of coronavirus named COVID-19 has disrupted the Chinese economy and is spreading globally. The evolution of the disease and its economic impact is highly uncertain which makes it difficult for policymakers to formulate an appropriate macroeconomic policy response. In order to better understand possible economic outcomes, this paper explores seven different scenarios of how COVID-19 might evolve in the coming year using a modelling technique developed by Lee and McKibbin (2003) and extended by McKibbin and Sidorenko (2006). It examines the impacts of different scenarios on macroeconomic outcomes and financial markets in a global hybrid DSGE/CGE general equilibrium model. The scenarios in this paper demonstrate that even a contained outbreak could significantly impact the global economy in the short run. These scenarios demonstrate the scale of costs that might be avoided by greater investment in public health systems in all economies but particularly in less developed economies where health care systems are less developed and popultion density is high.

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Section: Related Literaturementioning

confidence: 99%

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

2020

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“…Among the uninfected provinces was Guizhou, just 500 km from Guangdong. Moreover, all but eight of the infected provinces had fewer than 20 cases in mid‐May 2003, a time when Beijing had over 2400 (Shannon and Willoughby 2004). The failure of China's vast floating population of rural–urban migrants to spread the disease more rapidly along the reverse pathways to their provincial homes might be attributed to draconian measures by localities within China to keep out travellers (deLisle 2003).…”

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confidence: 99%

Airline networks and the international diffusion of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)

Bowen¹,

Laroe²

2006

Geographical Journal

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In fewer than four months in 2003, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) spread from China to 25 countries and Taiwan, becoming the first new, easily transmissible infectious disease of the twenty‐first century. The role of air transport in the diffusion of the disease became obvious early in the crisis; to assess that role more carefully, this study relates the spatial‐temporal pattern of the SARS outbreak to a measure of airline network accessibility. Specifically, the accessibility from those countries that were infected by SARS, beginning with China, to other countries was measured using airline schedules. The country‐pair accessibility measure, along with other country‐level factors relevant to the disease, were tested as determinants of the speed with which SARS arrived in infected countries as well as its failure to arrive in most countries. The analyses indicate that airline network accessibility was an especially influential variable but also that the importance of this variable diminished in the latter weeks of the outbreak. The latter finding is partly attributable to public health measures, particularly health screening in airports. The timing and geography of those measures are reviewed using data from media reports and interim World Health Organization (WHO) documents during the outbreak. The uneven effort to curtail the international diffusion of SARS suggests further planning is needed to develop a concerted response to contain future epidemics.

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“…Events surrounding the emergence and spread of SARS, in particular, have highlighted the rapidity with which a new respiratory disease agent can spread along the global airline network (Shannon and Willoughby 2004). Informed by the experience of SARS, measures of airline accessibility can be adapted to provide insights regarding the speed and direction of spread of a new pandemic influenza virus from n likely starting points (Bowen and Laroe 2006).…”

Section: Concluding Comments: Opportunities For Geographical Researchmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Geographical Spread of Avian Influenza A (H5N1): Panzootic Transmission (December 2003–May 2006), Pandemic Potential, and Implications

Smallman–Raynor

Cliff

2008

Annals of the Association of American Geographers

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The World Health Organization (WHO) believes that the advent of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) has moved the world closer to a further global pandemic of human influenza than at any time since the Hong Kong (H3N2) pandemic of [1968][1969]. The immediacy of the perceived threat is underscored by the current classification of the world at Phase 3 of WHO's operative six-phase system of pandemic alert, with H5N1 having met all the prerequisites for the onset of a human pandemic but one: the efficient and sustained person-to-person transmission of the virus. With preparations for an anticipated pandemic now recognized as a global health priority, the purpose of this article is to provide a foundation for geographical research on avian influenza A (H5N1). The article introduces geographers to the complex nature and ecology of H5N1, the principal data sources available to analyze the global occurrence of the virus in birds and humans, and evidence regarding its geographical origins and international dispersal during the first thirty months of the ongoing panzootic in wild birds and poultry, from December 2003 through May 2006. Key epidemiological facets of the disease in humans are examined. We conclude with a review of the incurred and projected economic costs of H5N1, global plans for pandemic aversion and mitigation, and prospects for the future geographical expansion of the virus. Areas in which geographers can make an effective contribution to knowledge about the virus and the disease are considered. Key Words: avian influenza A (H5N1), diffusion, pandemic, panzootic.La Organización Mundial de la Salud (World Health Organization, WHO) cree que el advenimiento de la altamente patogénica gripe aviar A (H5N1) ha acercado al mundo hacia una pandemia de gripe humana más que en ninguna otraépoca desde la pandemia de Hong Kong (H3N2) de 1968 a 1969. La inmediatez de la amenaza percibida ha sido recalcada por la clasificación actual del mundo en la Fase 3 del sistema operativo de seis fases de alerta pandémica de la WHO, habiendo H5N1 cumplido todos los requisitos para el inicio de una pandemia humana, excepto uno: la eficiente y sostenida transmisión del virus de persona a persona. Con las preparaciones para una pandemia anticipada ahora reconocida como una prioridad global de salud, el propósito de este artículo es proporcionar una base para la investigación geográfica de la gripe aviar A (H5N1). El artículo presenta a los geógrafos la naturaleza y ecología complejas de H5N1, las principales fuentes de datos disponibles para analizar la ocurrencia global del virus en las aves y en los seres humanos, y la evidencia referente a sus orígenes geográficos y su dispersión internacional durante los primeros treinta meses transcurridos desde la panzootia en curso entre

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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in Asia: A Medical Geographic Perspective

Cited by 26 publications

References 42 publications

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

The Global Macroeconomic Impacts of COVID-19: Seven Scenarios

Airline networks and the international diffusion of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS)

The Geographical Spread of Avian Influenza A (H5N1): Panzootic Transmission (December 2003–May 2006), Pandemic Potential, and Implications

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