Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data

Hens, Niel; Aerts, Marc; Faes, Christel; Shkedy, Ziv; Lejeune, Olivier; Damme, Pierre Van; Beutels, Philippe

doi:10.1017/s0950268809990781

Cited by 108 publications

(133 citation statements)

References 60 publications

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“…The asymptote parameter α is often interpreted as the proportion of the population that can be infected (i.e., the susceptible population), if it is assumed that it is the exhaustion of susceptible individuals that leads to the eventual plateau in the proportion infected at older ages. [16] With this interpretation, the rate parameter γ , is then the constant rate at which these susceptible individuals become infected. We allow α and γ to vary by state to reflect the heterogeneity in H. pylori prevalence trends resulting from differences in socioeconomic and environmental factors.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is an important epidemiological quantity and a key parameter for mathematical models of disease transmission, which are used to estimate disease burden and the effectiveness and cost- effectiveness of infectious disease treatment and prevention. [16,17] Like many infectious diseases, it is infeasible to directly measure the force of infection of H. pylori . [18-20] However, under certain assumptions, it can be estimated using population-level seroprevalence data.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Force of infection ofHelicobacter pyloriin Mexico: evidence from a national survey using a hierarchical Bayesian model

et al. 2018

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Summary Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is present in the stomach of half of the world’s population. The force of infection describes the rate at which susceptibles acquire infection. In this article, we estimated the age-specific force of infection of H. pylori in Mexico. Data came from a national H. pylori seroepidemiology survey collected in Mexico in 1987-88. We modelled the number of individuals with H. pylori at a given age as a binomial random variable. We assumed that the cumulative risk of infection by a given age follows a modified exponential catalytic model, allowing some fraction of the population to remain uninfected. The cumulative risk of infection was modelled for each state in Mexico and were shrunk toward the overall national cumulative risk curve using Bayesian hierarchical models. The proportion of the population that can be infected (i.e., susceptible population) is 85.9% [95% credible interval (CR): 84.3%-87.5%]. The constant rate of infection per year of age among the susceptible population is 0.092 [95%CR: 0.084-0.100]. The estimated force of infection was highest at birth 0.079 [95%CR: 0.071-0.087] decreasing to zero as age increases. This Bayesian hierarchical model allows stable estimation of state-specific force of infection by pooling information between the states, resulting in more realistic estimates.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Force of infection ofHelicobacter pyloriin Mexico: evidence from a national survey using a hierarchical Bayesian model

et al. 2018

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“…This is closer to a curve-fitting exercise, with limited epidemiological substance, and different assumed profiles may lead to similar fits against the seroprevalence data. 33 In our case, in the absence of strong evidence, no prior assumption was made about the shape of the force of infection, and the resulting profile is a model outcome based on all the complex underlying epidemiological information included in the modeling framework. This approach is not methodologically restricted to steady-state assumptions, and can well be employed in the presence of longitudinal seroprevalence data as well.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic transmission model with age-dependent infectiousness and reactivation for cytomegalovirus in the United States: Potential impact of vaccination strategies on congenital infection

Hogea

Dieussaert²,

Effelterre³

et al. 2015

Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics

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We present an age-structured dynamic transmission model for cytomegalovirus (CMV) in the United States, based on natural history and available data, primarily aiming to combine the available qualitative and quantitative knowledge toward more complex modeling frameworks to better reflect the underlying biology and epidemiology of the CMV infection. The model structure explicitly accounts for primary infections, reactivations and re-infections. Duration of infectiousness and likelihood of reactivation were both assumed to be age-dependent, and natural reduction in the re-infection risk following primary infection was included. We used an empirical social contact matrix (POLYMOD-based) as support for CMV transmission between different age groups. The baseline model reproduced well the age-stratified seroprevalence data (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III) used for calibration. The model was further used to explore the potential impact of hypothetical vaccination on reducing congenital CMV infection under various vaccine profiles and vaccination scenarios. Our preliminary model-based simulations suggested that while infant vaccination may represent an attractive way to reduce congenital CMV infection over time, adolescent female vaccination with an adequate routine booster platform may, under certain conditions, provide an alternative. However, for such tools to be considered toward actual decision-making, enhanced validations based on additional studies and data would be further necessary. The modeling framework presented in this paper was designed to be sufficiently general and flexible, such that it can allow for further adaptations to reflect new knowledge or data that may become available in the future.

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“…Understanding the dynamics of transmission of infectious diseases is crucial for assessing disease risk and proposing adapted prevention and control measures1. Mathematical modeling is an approach frequently used to understand such dynamics and simulate control strategies such as vaccination23.…”

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confidence: 99%

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling

Olive

Grosbois²,

Tran³

et al. 2017

Sci Rep

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The force of infection (FOI) is one of the key parameters describing the dynamics of transmission of vector-borne diseases. Following the occurrence of two major outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in Madagascar in 1990–91 and 2008–09, recent studies suggest that the pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) transmission differed among the four main eco-regions (East, Highlands, North-West and South-West). Using Bayesian hierarchical models fitted to serological data from cattle of known age collected during two surveys (2008 and 2014), we estimated RVF FOI and described its variations over time and space in Madagascar. We show that the patterns of RVFV transmission strongly differed among the eco-regions. In the North-West and Highlands regions, these patterns were synchronous with a high intensity in mid-2007/mid-2008. In the East and South-West, the peaks of transmission were later, between mid-2008 and mid-2010. In the warm and humid northwestern eco-region favorable to mosquito populations, RVFV is probably transmitted all year-long at low-level during inter-epizootic period allowing its maintenance and being regularly introduced in the Highlands through ruminant trade. The RVF surveillance of animals of the northwestern region could be used as an early warning indicator of an increased risk of RVF outbreak in Madagascar.

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Seventy-five years of estimating the force of infection from current status data

Cited by 108 publications

References 60 publications

Force of infection ofHelicobacter pyloriin Mexico: evidence from a national survey using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Force of infection ofHelicobacter pyloriin Mexico: evidence from a national survey using a hierarchical Bayesian model

A dynamic transmission model with age-dependent infectiousness and reactivation for cytomegalovirus in the United States: Potential impact of vaccination strategies on congenital infection

Reconstruction of Rift Valley fever transmission dynamics in Madagascar: estimation of force of infection from seroprevalence surveys using Bayesian modelling

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