Settlement Forecast of Marine Soft Soil Ground Improved with Prefabricated Vertical Drain-Assisted Staged Riprap Filling

Abstract

By comparing different settlement forecast methods, eight methods were selected considering the creep of marine soft soils in this case study, including the Hyperbolic Method (HM), Exponential Curve Method (ECM), Pearl Growth Curve Modeling (PGCM), Gompertz Growth Curve Modeling (GGCM), Grey (1, 1) Model (GM), Grey Verhulst Model (GVM), Back Propagation of Artificial Neural Network (BPANN) with Levenberg–Marquardt Algorithm (BPLM), and BPANN with Gradient Descent of Momentum and Adaptive Learning Rate (BPGD). Taking Lingni Seawall soil ground improved with prefabricated vertical drain-assisted staged riprap filling as an example, forecasts of the short-term, medium-term, long-term, and final settlements at different locations of the soft ground were performed with the eight selected methods. The forecasting values were compared with each other and with the monitored data. When relative errors were between 0 and −1%, both the forecasting accuracy and engineering safety were appropriate and reliable. It was concluded that the appropriate forecast methods were different not only due to the time periods during the settlement process, but also the locations of soft ground. Among these methods, only BPGD was appropriate for all the time periods and locations, such as at the edge of the berm, and at the center of the berm and embankment.