Setting Road Safety Targets in Cambodia: A Methodological Demonstration Using the Latent Risk Time Series Model

Abstract

We present the methodology used for estimating forecasts for the number of road traffic fatalities in 2011–2020 in Cambodia based on observed developments in Cambodian road traffic fatalities and motor vehicle ownership in the years 1995–2009. Using the latent risk time series model baseline forecasts for the fatality risk were estimated for the years 2010–2020. These baseline forecasts were then used to obtain estimates for the future number of fatalities based on three scenarios for the future Cambodian growth in motor vehicle ownership: a low, a middle, and a high growth scenario. The middle growth scenario results in an expected death toll of approximately 3,200 in 2020. In 2010, it was therefore decided in Cambodia to set the target at a 50% reduction of this number or 1,600 fatalities in 2020. If it is possible to achieve this target by taking additional actions to improve road safety, then a total of 7,350 lives could be saved in Cambodia over the whole 2011–2020 period.

Impact of quantitative safety targets on road fatality reduction: an empirical support toward governance plan

“…Therefore, an extrapolation is that the prerequisite to improve the effectiveness of the quantitative road safety management mode does not stop at how ambitious it should be, but more attention should be paid to other levels, including implementation, supervision, feasibility, and cost control. (3) An exception in contemporary studies is the research conducted in Cambodia in 2017 (12), which found that an ambitious target set was expected and forecasted to effectively Sign "+" refers to the positive association, which means that this study finds that higher target ambition or longer duration will bring better injury/fatality prevention outcomes. 2.…”

“…Such methods include cluster analysis and autoregression (31). Furthermore, regional studies referring to individual countries and areas have also been conducted, and regional uniqueness in terms of socio-economic development conditions has been considered [e.g., (12,14,15,22)].…”

“…These variations are included in individual effects, but are unobservable in existing databases. For example, local studies on the relationship between target setting and road development performance in different countries typically yield different conclusions [e.g., (12,14,15)]. Therefore, we used panel data discrete choice models to account for individual heterogeneity.…”

“…Previous empirical studies have provided valuable insights into these factors and established a solid foundation for target setting (6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11), but their findings are equivocal and widely debated in academia with two types of antithetical opinions. Some studies have found that the key characteristics of targets, such as the level of targeted fatality reduction and durability of target execution, have a significant positive relationship with the likelihood of their achievement (7,12,13), whereas others claim that it is a negative relationship (8,14,15). These studies were mostly conducted within individual countries, from which the findings may not be applicable and generalizable to other parts of the world.…”

Impact of a Lower Conservation Budget on Road Safety Indices

“…Finally, the Severity Index indicates the probability of dying once an accident has been occurred. Equations (1) to (3) show the expressions to obtain these indices [27]: These indexes can be employed to analyze and, in some cases, even to forecast the accidents rate and their consequences, as proposed by Commandeur et al [28].…”