Serum from COVID-19 patients early in the pandemic shows limited evidence of cross-neutralization against variants of concern

Griffin, Amanda; O’Donnell, Kyle L.; Shifflett, Kyle; Lavik, John-Paul; Russell, Patrick M.; Zimmerman, Michelle K.; Relich, Ryan F.; Marzi, Andrea

doi:10.1038/s41598-022-07960-4

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 49 publications

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“…This was performed using the framework described by Davies and coworkers [ 38 ], which essentially uses individual strain models fitted to longitudinal viral sequence-derived variant case data to estimate variant-specific transmission rates. We also assume that previously dominant strains provide some level of cross-protection against emerging new variants [ 38 , 39 ]. Each variant (alpha, delta, and all others) therefore has a corresponding exposed (E), infectious (IA, IP, IM, IH, IC), recovered (R), and death (D) compartments along with estimated variant-specific transmission rates, and a cross-immunity parameter by which immunity generated by individuals against previous strains confers a 10% level of protection against new emerging variants (see GitHub Repository for equations).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

2022

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The advent and distribution of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 in late 2020 was thought to represent an effective means to control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. This optimistic expectation was dashed by the omicron waves that emerged over the winter of 2021/2020 even in countries that had managed to vaccinate a large fraction of their populations, raising questions about whether it is possible to use scientific knowledge along with predictive models to anticipate changes and design management measures for the pandemic. Here, we used an extended SEIR model for SARS-CoV-2 transmission sequentially calibrated to data on cases and interventions implemented in Florida until Sept. 24th 2021, and coupled to scenarios of plausible changes in key drivers of viral transmission, to evaluate the capacity of such a tool for exploring the future of the pandemic in the state. We show that while the introduction of vaccinations could have led to the permanent, albeit drawn-out, ending of the pandemic if immunity acts over the long-term, additional futures marked by complicated repeat waves of infection become possible if this immunity wanes over time. We demonstrate that the most recent omicron wave could have been predicted by this hybrid system, but only if timely information on the timing of variant emergence and its epidemiological features were made available. Simulations for the introduction of a new variant exhibiting higher transmissibility than omicron indicated that while this will result in repeat waves, forecasted peaks are unlikely to reach that observed for the omicron wave owing to levels of immunity established over time in the population. These results highlight that while limitations of models calibrated to past data for precisely forecasting the futures of epidemics must be recognized, insightful predictions of pandemic futures are still possible if uncertainties about changes in key drivers are captured appropriately through plausible scenarios.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

2022

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Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Newcomb

Michael

2021

Preprint

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The advent of vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 and the roll out of mass vaccination programs are thought to present the most effective means to control and even end the ongoing pandemic. However, uncertainties connected with the partial effectiveness of present vaccines, duration of immunity against SARS-CoV-2, and potential impact of variant dynamics, mean that it is still possible that the contagion could follow different future paths in different communities. Here, we use an extended SEIR for SARS-COV-2 transmission sequentially calibrated to data on cases and interventions implemented in the state of Florida to explore how these factors may interact to govern potential pandemic futures. Our data-driven forecasts indicate while the introduction of vaccinations could lead to the permanent, albeit drawn-out, ending of the pandemic if the immunity generated through vaccinations and natural infections acts over the long-term, additional futures could become possible if this immunity wanes over time. These futures will be marked by repeated waves of infection, the amplitude and periodicity of which will depend on the duration over which the immunity generated in a population will operate. We conclude that the possibility of these complex futures will require continual vigilance and perhaps fundamental changes in societal responses if we are to effectively control SARS-CoV-2.

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SARS-CoV-2 Spike and Nucleocapsid Antibody Response in Vaccinated Croatian Healthcare Workers and Infected Hospitalized Patients: A Single Center Cohort Study

Brlić

Pavletić

Lerga

et al. 2022

Viruses

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Studies assessing the dynamics and duration of antibody responses following SARS-CoV-2 infection or vaccination are an invaluable tool for vaccination schedule planning, assessment of risk groups and management of pandemics. In this study, we developed and employed ELISA assays to analyze the humoral responses to Nucleocapsid and Spike proteins in vaccinated health-care workers (HCW) and critically ill COVID-19 patients. Sera of more than 1000 HCWs and critically ill patients from the Clinical Hospital Center Rijeka were tested across a one-year period, encompassing the spread of major SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). We observed 97% of seroconversion in HCW cohort as well as sustained anti-Spike antibody response in vaccinees for more than 6 months. In contrast, the infection-induced anti-Nucleocapsid response was waning significantly in a six-month period. Furthermore, a substantial decrease in vaccinees’ anti-Spike antibodies binding to Spike protein of Omicron VOC was also observed. Critically ill COVID-19 patients had higher levels of anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibodies compared to HCWs. No significant differences in anti-Spike and anti-Nucleocapsid antibody levels between the critically ill COVID-19 patients that were on non-invasive oxygen supplementation and those on invasive ventilation support were observed. However, stronger anti-Spike, but not anti-Nucleocapsid, antibody response correlated with a better disease outcome in the cohort of patients on invasive ventilation support. Altogether, our results contribute to the growing pool of data on humoral responses to SARS-CoV-2 infection and vaccination.

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Serum from COVID-19 patients early in the pandemic shows limited evidence of cross-neutralization against variants of concern

Cited by 3 publications

References 49 publications

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

Combining predictive models with future change scenarios can produce credible forecasts of COVID-19 futures

SARS-CoV-2 Spike and Nucleocapsid Antibody Response in Vaccinated Croatian Healthcare Workers and Infected Hospitalized Patients: A Single Center Cohort Study

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