IntroductionOur previous case–control study demonstrated that a high level of intestinal alkaline phosphatase (IAP), an endotoxin-detoxifying anti-inflammatory enzyme secreted by villus-associated enterocytes and excreted with stool, plays a protective role against type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) irrespective of obesity. In the current study, we investigated the long-term effect of IAP deficiency (IAPD) on the pathogenesis of T2DM.Research design and methodsA healthy cohort of participants without diabetes (30–60 years old), comprising 188 without IAPD (IAP level: ≥65 U/g stool) and 386 with IAPD (IAP level: <65 U/g stool), were followed up for 5 years. We measured stool IAP (STAP) and fasting plasma glucose, and calculated the risk ratio (RR) using log-binomial regression model.ResultsT2DM incidence rates were 8.0%, 11.7%, 25.6%, and 33.3% in participants with ‘persistent no IAPD’ (IAP level: always ≥65 U/g stool), ‘remittent IAPD’ (IAP level: increased from <65 U/g stool to ≥65 U/g stool), ‘persistent IAPD’ (IAP level: always <65 U/g stool), and ‘incident IAPD’ (IAP level: decreased from ≥65 U/g stool to <65 U/g stool), respectively. Compared with ‘persistent no IAPD’ the risk of developing T2DM with ‘incident IAPD’ was 270% higher (RR: 3.69 (95% CI 1.76 to 7.71), χ2 p<0.001). With ‘persistent IAPD’ the risk was 230% higher (RR: 3.27 (95% CI 1.64 to 6.50), p<0.001). ‘Remittent IAPD’ showed insignificant risk (RR: 2.24 (95% CI 0.99 to 5.11), p=0.0541). Sensitivity analyses of persistent IAP levels revealed that, compared with participants of the highest persistent IAP pentile (always >115 U/g stool), the rate of increase of fasting glycemia was double and the risk of developing T2DM was 1280% higher (RR: 13.80 (95% CI 1.87 to 101.3), p=0.0099) in participants of the lowest persistent IAP pentile (always <15 U/g stool). A diabetes pathogenesis model is presented.ConclusionsIAPD increases the risk of developing T2DM, and regular STAP tests would predict individual vulnerability to T2DM. Oral IAP supplementation might prevent T2DM.