Serology-informed estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk in Geneva, Switzerland

Perez-Saez, Javier; Lauer, Stephen A.; Kaiser, Laurent; Regard, Simon; Delaporte, E.; Guessous, Idris; Stringhini, Silvia; Azman, Andrew S.

doi:10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30584-3

Cited by 142 publications

(86 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…26 A serology-informed estimate of the IFR in Geneva, Switzerland put the IFR at: age 5-9 years 0.0016% (95% CrI 0, 0.019), 10-19 years 0.00032% (95% CrI 0, 0.0033), 20-49 years 0.0092% (95% CrI 0.0042, 0.016), 50-64 years 0.14% (95% CrI 0.096, 0.19), and age 65+ outside of assisted care facilities 2.7% (95% CrI 1.6, 4.6), for an overall population IFR 0.32% (95% CrI 0.17, 0.56). 41 Similarly, a large study from France found an inflection point in IFR around the age of 70 years [see their Figure 2D]. 42…”

Section: The Infection Fatality Rate (Ifr)mentioning

confidence: 86%

“…43 By far the most important risk factor is older age. [41][42][43] There is a ~1000 fold difference in death risk for people >80 years old versus children. 43 In the largest observational study I am aware of, the OpenSAFELY population in the UK, including over 17 million people with 10,900 COVID-19 deaths, compared to those age 50-59 years old, the Hazard Ratio for death from COVID-19 ranged from 0.06 for those age 18-39 years, to >10 for those age >80 years.…”

Section: High-risk Groupsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

Joffe

2020

Preprint

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The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population’s movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to ‘flatten the curve’ of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. First, I explain how the initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects [i.e., groupthink]. Second, I summarize important information that has emerged relevant to the modeling, including about infection fatality rate, high-risk groups, herd immunity thresholds, and exit strategies. Third, I describe how reality started sinking in, with information on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, and information placing the number of deaths in context and perspective. Fourth, I present a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 that finds lockdowns are far more harmful to public health than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. I close with some suggestions for moving forward.

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Section: The Infection Fatality Rate (Ifr)mentioning

confidence: 86%

Section: High-risk Groupsmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

Joffe

2020

Preprint

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“…Risk attitudes are shown to shape the observable behavioural responses to pandemics. The actual (calculated) health risks of the COVID-19 pandemic are comparatively low for most age groups apart from the elderly [44][45][46] . Nevertheless, risk attitudes-rather than actual risk-influence the real behavioural activity for the young and the elderly.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Risk attitudes and human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic

Chan

Skali

Savage

et al. 2020

Sci Rep

149

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Behavioural responses to pandemics are less shaped by actual mortality or hospitalisation risks than they are by risk attitudes. We explore human mobility patterns as a measure of behavioural responses during the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results indicate that risk-taking attitudes are a critical factor in predicting reductions in human mobility and social confinement around the globe. We find that the sharp decline in mobility after the WHO (World Health Organization) declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic can be attributed to risk attitudes. Our results suggest that regions with risk-averse attitudes are more likely to adjust their behavioural activity in response to the declaration of a pandemic even before official government lockdowns. Further understanding of the basis of responses to epidemics, e.g., precautionary behaviour, will help improve the containment of the spread of the virus.

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“…COVID-19 has spread rapidly across the world, with 39,944,882 confirmed cases and 1,111,998 deaths reported to the World Health Organization (WHO), as of 19 October 2020 [1]. It has been reported that the severity of COVID-19 can be influenced by various factors such as age, sex, ethnicity, and underlying comorbidities [2][3][4][5]. Although many therapeutic treatments have been suggested, there is no approved antiviral treatment specific for COVID -19. Recently, the European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolism (ESPEN) proposed 10 practical recommendations for the management of COVID-19 patients [6].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Role of Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Selenium in Immune System against COVID-19

2020

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Low levels of micronutrients have been associated with adverse clinical outcomes during viral infections. Therefore, to maximize the nutritional defense against infections, a daily allowance of vitamins and trace elements for malnourished patients at risk of or diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) may be beneficial. Recent studies on COVID-19 patients have shown that vitamin D and selenium deficiencies are evident in patients with acute respiratory tract infections. Vitamin D improves the physical barrier against viruses and stimulates the production of antimicrobial peptides. It may prevent cytokine storms by decreasing the production of inflammatory cytokines. Selenium enhances the function of cytotoxic effector cells. Furthermore, selenium is important for maintaining T cell maturation and functions, as well as for T cell-dependent antibody production. Vitamin C is considered an antiviral agent as it increases immunity. Administration of vitamin C increased the survival rate of COVID-19 patients by attenuating excessive activation of the immune response. Vitamin C increases antiviral cytokines and free radical formation, decreasing viral yield. It also attenuates excessive inflammatory responses and hyperactivation of immune cells. In this mini-review, the roles of vitamin C, vitamin D, and selenium in the immune system are discussed in relation to COVID-19.

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Serology-informed estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality risk in Geneva, Switzerland

Cited by 142 publications

References 7 publications

COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

Risk attitudes and human mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic

The Role of Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Selenium in Immune System against COVID-19

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