Sequential migration theory and evidence from Peru

Pessino, Carola

doi:10.1016/0304-3878(91)90005-g

Cited by 48 publications

(27 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…Reject selection on unobservables Sectoral Choice Heckman and Sedlacek (1990) Normal selection model (H 0 : j 12 p j 02 ) j 12 ( j 02 Reject Migration Pessino (1991) Normal selection model (H 0 : j 12 p j 02 ) j 12 ( j 02 Reject Tunali (2000) H 0 : E(U 1 ϪU 0 dD p 1) p 0 (estimated using robust selection)…”

Section: B Estimating Mte and Understanding Instrumental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture

Heckman

2001

Journal of Political Economy

527

289

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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org.. The University of Chicago Press is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Journal of Political Economy. This paper summarizes the contributions of microeconometrics to economic knowledge. Four main themes are developed. (1) Microeconometricians developed new tools to respond to econometric problems raised by the analysis of the new sources of micro data produced after the Second World War.(2) Microeconometrics improved on aggregate time-series methods by building models that linked economic models for individuals to data on individual behavior. (3) An important empirical regularity detected by the field is the diversity and heterogeneity of behavior. This heterogeneity has profound consequences for economic theory and for econometric practice. (4) Microeconometrics has contributed substantially to the scientific evaluation of public policy.

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Section: B Estimating Mte and Understanding Instrumental Variablesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture

Heckman

2001

Journal of Political Economy

527

289

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“…Pessino (1991) analyzed a two-period Bayesian learning model along these lines, and applied it to migration data for Peru.…”

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confidence: 99%

The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions

2011

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The paper develops a tractable econometric model of optimal migration, focusing on expected income as the main economic influence on migration. The model improves on previous work in two respects: it covers optimal sequences of location decisions (rather than a single once-for-all choice), and it allows for many alternative location choices. The model is estimated using panel data from the NLSY on white males with a high school education. Our main conclusion is that interstate migration decisions are influenced to a substantial extent by income prospects. The results suggest that the link between income and migration decisions is driven both by geographic differences in mean wages and by a tendency to move in search of a better locational match when the income realization in the current location is unfavorable.2 See Greenwood [1997] and Lucas [1997] for surveys.3 Holt (1996) estimated a dynamic discrete choice model of migration, but his framework modeled the move/stay decision and not the location-specific flows. Similarly, Tunali (2000) gives a detailed econometric analysis of the move/stay decision using microdata for Turkey, but his model does not distinguish between alternative destinations. Dahl (2002) allows for many alternative destinations (the set of States in the U.S.), but he considers only a single lifetime migration decision. Gallin (2004) models net migration in a given location as a response to expected future wages in that location, but he does not model the individual decision problem. Gemici (2007) extends our framework and considers family migration decisions, but defines locations as census regions.

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“…(Beine et al, 2011(Beine et al, , 2013(Beine et al, , 2016Belot and Ederveen, 2012;Belot and Hatton, 2012;Bertoli et al, 2011;Clark et al, 2007;Grogger and Hanson, 2011;Lewer and den Berg, 2008;Mayda, 2010;Pedersen et al, 2008), and more specifically on the papers that have relaxed the distributional assumptions on the underlying RUM model (Bertoli and Fernández-Huertas Moraga, 2015;Ortega and Peri, 2013), and those that have analyzed the determinants of migration to Germany, mainly in the context of the Eastern enlargement of the EU (Boeri and Brücker, 2001;Brücker and Siliverstovs, 2006;Fertig, 2001;Flaig, 2001;Sinn et al, 2001;Vogler and Rotte, 2000). Second, the literature on static (de Palma and Kilani, 2007;McFadden, 1974McFadden, , 1978Small and Rosen, 1981) and dynamic discrete choice models (Arcidiacono and Miller, 2011;Artuç et al, 2010;Kennan and Walker, 2011;Pessino, 1991). Third, the literature on the estimation of linear models with a common factor structure in the error term (Bai, 2009;Pesaran, 2006;Pesaran and Tosetti;.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The European crisis and migration to Germany

Bertoli

Brücker

Moraga

2016

Regional Science and Urban Economics

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A B S T R A C TThe size of migration flows to Germany from other European countries surged in the aftermath of the 2010 European crisis, and this paper explores the main determinants of this large increase. International migrants tend to move more than once in their lives, and migration episodes to Germany make no exception in this respect. This paper explores some relevant implications of this simple observation for the estimation of gravity models, which is done here with bilateral monthly migration data. We demonstrate that ignoring the sequential nature of migration decisions gives rise to multilateral resistance to migration, thus substan-tially biasing the estimates. We also show that the expectations about future economic conditions at origin significantly influence bilateral migration flows to Germany.

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Sequential migration theory and evidence from Peru

Cited by 48 publications

References 18 publications

Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture

Micro Data, Heterogeneity, and the Evaluation of Public Policy: Nobel Lecture

The Effect of Expected Income on Individual Migration Decisions

The European crisis and migration to Germany

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