Sensitivity studies of oxidative changes in the troposphere in 2100 using the GISS GCM

Grenfell, John Lee; Shindell, D. T.; Grewe, Volker

doi:10.5194/acp-3-1267-2003

Cited by 23 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…These show that lightning activity will increase in a warmer climate (Price and Rind 1994;Grenfell et al 2003;Shindell et al 2006), a result consistent with the suggestion based on the study of seasonal variations in lightning activity on the Tibetan Plateau (Toumi and Qie 2004). Model studies also show that, for every 1°K of global warming, a *10% increase in lightning activity may arise Futyan and Del Genio 2007).…”

Section: Lightning Activity Rainfall and Surface Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 78%

Solar Activity, Lightning and Climate

Siingh

Singh

et al. 2011

Surv Geophys

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The physics of solar forcing of the climate and long term climate change is summarized, and the role of energetic charged particles (including cosmic rays) on cloud formation and their effect on climate is examined. It is considered that the cosmic raycloud cover hypothesis is not supported by presently available data and further investigations (during Forbush decreases and at other times) should be analyzed to further examine the hypothesis. Another player in climate is lightning through the production of NO x ; this greenhouse gas, water vapour in the troposphere (and stratosphere) and carbon dioxide influence the global temperature through different processes. The enhancement of aerosol concentrations and their distribution in the troposphere also affect the climate and may result in enhanced lightning activity. Finally, the roles of atmospheric conductivity on the electrical activity of thunderstorms and lightning discharges in relation to climate are discussed.

show abstract

Section: Lightning Activity Rainfall and Surface Temperaturesupporting

confidence: 78%

Solar Activity, Lightning and Climate

Siingh

Singh

et al. 2011

Surv Geophys

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This corresponds to a sensitivity of 0.96 Tg(N) K −1 or 16 % K −1 although the relationship between LNO x and global mean surface temperature is not quite linear (not shown). This sensitivity is stronger than that reported by some previous model studies: 9 % K −1 (Brasseur et al, 2006), 12 % K −1 (Grenfell et al, 2003), 5-6 % K −1 (Price and Rind, 1994b). This could reflect differences in the specific tuning of the PR92 parameterisation (used in all of these cited studies), in convection schemes and/or in the model resolutions.…”

Section: Changes In Lno Xcontrasting

confidence: 50%

“…Changes in climate can also exert a direct influence on LNO x where, generally, global LNO x is found to increase in a warmer climate (Grenfell et al, 2003;Zeng and Pyle, 2003;Brasseur et al, 2006;Zeng et al, 2008;Hui and Hong, 2013). However, given the large uncertainty that surrounds present-day LNO x estimates (generally between 2 and 8 Tg(N) yr −1 ), its vertical distribution and generation mechanisms (Schumann and Huntrieser, 2007;Wong et al, 2013), future projections are also highly uncertain (Price, 2013).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Lightning NO<sub>x</sub>, a key chemistry–climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. Lightning is one of the major natural sources of NO x in the atmosphere. A suite of time slice experiments using a stratosphere-resolving configuration of the Unified Model (UM), containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model (UKCA), has been performed to investigate the impact of climate change on emissions of NO x from lightning (LNO x ) and to highlight its critical impacts on photochemical ozone production and the oxidising capacity of the troposphere. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) are explored. LNO x is simulated to increase in a year-2100 climate by 33 % (RCP4.5) and 78 % (RCP8.5), primarily as a result of increases in the depth of convection. The total tropospheric chemical odd oxygen production (P (O x )) increases linearly with increases in total LNO x and consequently, tropospheric ozone burdens of 29 ± 4 Tg(O 3 ) (RCP4.5) and 46 ± 4 Tg(O 3 ) (RCP8.5) are calculated here. By prescribing a uniform surface boundary concentration for methane in these simulations, methane-driven feedbacks are essentially neglected. A simple estimate of the contribution of the feedback reduces the increase in ozone burden to 24 and 33 Tg(O 3 ), respectively. We thus show that, through changes in LNO x , the effects of climate change counteract the simulated mitigation of the ozone burden, which results from reductions in ozone precursor emissions as part of air quality controls projected in the RCP scenarios. Without the driver of increased LNO x , our simulations suggest that the net effect of climate change would be to lower free tropospheric ozone.In addition, we identify large climate-change-induced enhancements in the concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH) in the tropical upper troposphere (UT), particularly over the Maritime Continent, primarily as a consequence of greater LNO x . The OH enhancement in the tropics increases oxidation of both methane (with feedbacks onto chemistry and climate) and very short-lived substances (VSLS) (with implications for stratospheric ozone depletion). We emphasise that it is important to improve our understanding of LNO x in order to gain confidence in model projections of composition change under future climate.

show abstract

“…Price and Rind (1994) derive from their climate model a 5%-6% increase in global lightning activity per kelvin global warming, and hence an equivalent number for the related NOx production. Grenfell et al (2003) find that the NOx production increases from 4.9 to 6.9 TgN yr period under the IS92a scenario. They observe, however, some shifts in the distribution of the lightning, including a significant reduction in the Tropics below 10 km and an increase at higher levels reflecting reduced, but deeper convection.…”

Section: ) Emissions Of 2100 Climate Of 2100 (Case E)mentioning

confidence: 85%

Impact of Climate Change on the Future Chemical Composition of the Global Troposphere

et al. 2006

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

A global chemical transport model of the atmosphere [the Model for Ozone and Related Tracers, version 2 (MOZART-2)] driven by prescribed surface emissions and by meteorological fields provided by the ECHAM5/Max Planck Institute Ocean Model (MPI-OM-1) coupled atmosphere-ocean model is used to assess how expected climate changes (2100 versus 2000 periods) should affect the chemical composition of the troposphere. Calculations suggest that ozone changes resulting from climate change only are negative in a large fraction of the troposphere because of enhanced photochemical destruction by water vapor. In the Tropics, increased lightning activity should lead to larger ozone concentrations. The magnitude of the climate-induced ozone changes in the troposphere remains smaller than the changes produced by enhanced anthropogenic emissions when the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2P is adopted to describe the future evolution of these emissions. Predictions depend strongly on future trends in atmospheric methane levels, which are not well established. Changes in the emissions of NOx by bacteria in soils and of nonmethane hydrocarbons by vegetation associated with climate change could have a significant impact on future ozone levels.

show abstract

Sensitivity studies of oxidative changes in the troposphere in 2100 using the GISS GCM

Abstract: Abstract. We examine the relative importance of chemical precursor emissions affecting ozone (O 3 ) and hydroxyl

Cited by 23 publications

References 35 publications

Solar Activity, Lightning and Climate

Solar Activity, Lightning and Climate

Lightning NO<sub>x</sub>, a key chemistry–climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity

Impact of Climate Change on the Future Chemical Composition of the Global Troposphere

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Sensitivity studies of oxidative changes in the troposphere in 2100 using the GISS GCM

Abstract: Abstract. We examine the relative importance of chemical precursor emissions affecting ozone (O 3 ) and hydroxyl

Cited by 23 publications

References 35 publications

Solar Activity, Lightning and Climate

Solar Activity, Lightning and Climate

Lightning NO&lt;sub&gt;x&lt;/sub&gt;, a key chemistry–climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity

Impact of Climate Change on the Future Chemical Composition of the Global Troposphere

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About

Lightning NO<sub>x</sub>, a key chemistry–climate interaction: impacts of future climate change and consequences for tropospheric oxidising capacity