Sensitivity of tropical monsoon precipitation to the latitude of stratospheric aerosol injections

Krishnamohan, K. S.; Bala, Govindasamy

doi:10.1007/s00382-021-06121-z

Cited by 24 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 75 publications

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“…In addition to the winter warming over Europe, North America and Asia (Banerjee et al, 2021), our results indicate asymmetric increases in warm nights (TNx, TR) compared to cooler days in the summer (TXx, SU). GLENS EC projects increases in warm nights over northern India which contrast with the projected cooling in mean temperatures (Tilmes et al, 2018), but is consistent with other research (Muthalya et al 2018b;Irvine et al, 2019) and is likely driven by seasonal variations in the ocean-land temperature contrasts (Visioni et al, 2020;Krishnamohan and Bala, 2022). Furthermore, the projected amplitude of changes is greater at higher latitudes even though the changes scale with global mean temperatures (Kharin et al, 2018).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…The greatest increase in LAI and associated GPP (Figure 10c- d) in GLENS are also accompanied by warmer days and cooler nights (Figures 4 and 5) but decreases in mean and extreme precipitation (Figures 6 and 9). This largely follows the anticipated asymmetric diel warming relationships (Cox et al, 2020) and corroborates potential reductions in cloud cover (Krishnamohan and Bala, 2022;Visioni et al, 2021) together with increased persistence of dry spells (Pinto et al, 2020). As with other locations in the tropics, the decreases in LHF are also driven primarily by decreases in transpiration (Figure 11c; Dagon and Schrag, 2019).…”

Section: Western and Central Africasupporting

confidence: 76%

“…These decreases are accompanied by different rates of change in the daytime (TX) and nighttime (TN) temperatures with increases in TN but decreases in TX (see Figures 2 and 5). Changes in all three metrics correlate with the posited relationship between cloud cover, vegetation, precipitation and differential warming (Cox et al, 2020) and reflect the potential for increases in cloud cover (Krishnamohan and Bala, 2022;Visioni et al, 2021) 11a) and transpiration (Figure 11c), but more canopy evaporation in parts of the region (Figure 11b), coupled with lower atmospheric moisture content and shorter wet spells (CWD).…”

Section: North and Northeast South Americamentioning

confidence: 84%

“…The asymmetry of changes in warm and cool events has been linked to a contraction or shift in the Intertropical Convergence Zone in other geoengineering simulations (Haywood et al, 2013;Krishnamohan and Bala, 2022).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Away from the tropics, LHF is dominated by ground evaporation and soil moisture -both of which decrease in the GLENS EC projections. The reduction in LHF is likely also linked to reductions in cloud cover (Krishnamohan and Bala, 2022;Visioni et al, 2021). However, there is little change in LAI or canopy evaporation, coupled with a slight increase in the asymmetry of increasing TX versus decreasing TN in GLENS EC (Refer to Section 3.1, and Figures 2 and 5).…”

Section: 3mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Indices of Extremes: Geographic patterns of change in extremes and associated vegetation impacts under climate intervention

Tye

Dagon

Molina

et al. 2022

Preprint

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Abstract. Extreme weather events have been demonstrated to be increasing in frequency and intensity across the globe and are anticipated to increase further with projected changes in climate. Solar climate intervention strategies, specifically stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI), have the potential to minimise some of the impacts of a changing climate while more robust reductions in greenhouse gas emissions take effect. However, to date little attention has been paid to the possible responses of extreme weather and climate events under climate intervention scenarios. We present an analysis of 16 extreme surface temperature and precipitation indices, and associated vegetation responses, applied to the Geoengineering Large Ensemble (GLENS). GLENS is an ensemble of simulations performed with the Community Earth System Model (CESM1) where SAI is simulated to offset the warming produced by a high emission scenario throughout the 21st century, maintaining surface temperatures at 2020 levels. GLENS is generally successful at maintaining global mean temperature near 2020 levels, however it does not completely offset some of the projected warming in northern latitudes. Some regions are also projected to cool substantially in comparison to the present day, with the greatest decreases in daytime temperatures. The differential warming/cooling also translates to fewer very hot days but more very hot nights during the summer, and fewer very cold days or nights compared to the current day. Extreme precipitation patterns, for the most part, are projected to reduce in intensity in areas that are wet in the current climate and increase in intensity in dry areas. We also find that the distribution of daily precipitation becomes more consistent with more days with light rain, and fewer very intense events than occur currently. In many regions there is a reduction in the persistence of long dry and wet spells compared to present day. However, asymmetry in the night and day temperatures, together with changes in cloud cover and vegetative responses could exacerbate drying in regions that are already sensitive to drought. Overall, our results suggest that while SAI may ameliorate some of the extreme weather hazards produced by global warming, it would also present some significant differences in the distribution of climate extremes compared to the present day.

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