Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability and riparian reforestation strategies

Bond, Rosealea M.; Stubblefield, A. P.; Kirk, Robert W. Van

doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.07.002

Cited by 29 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Moderate discharge conditions yield MWATs substantially cooler than low flows across most scenarios (Figure ), consistent with prior Heat Source modelling results (Bond et al, ). This suggests that maintaining minimum stream flows—especially during drought—could be an effective management strategy to maintain cooler stream temperatures and may be more important than reforestation.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

“…Changing incident solar radiation via reforestation has the greatest impact on AC stream temperatures, reflecting the minimal discharge and low thermal capacity there. Bond et al () generated similar Heat Source results, finding that the cooling effect of reforestation was substantially greater during low flow.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

“…Complete loss of riparian forest is low probability but could be devastating to fisheries already struggling under warm water conditions. In contrast, Bond et al () found warmer air temperatures to have a greater impact on stream temperatures than reforestation over a short 1‐km study reach. Clearly, the relative influence of solar radiation and air temperature depend on local conditions, such as reach length, channel geomorphology and hydraulics (Hawkins et al, ; Meier et al, ; Gaffield et al, ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

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Stream Temperature Impacts Because of Changes in Air Temperature, Land Cover and Stream Discharge: Navarro River Watershed, California, USA

Woltemade

Hawkins

2016

River Res. Applic.

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Stream temperatures are critically important to aquatic ecology, especially cold-water fish such as salmonids. Stream temperatures are influenced by multiple factors, including local climate, solar radiation on the stream channel, stream discharge volume and groundwater contributions. The Heat Source hydrodynamic and thermodynamic numerical model was used to evaluate temperatures in three stream reaches in the Navarro River watershed, California, USA. The model was calibrated and validated for summer 2015 conditions and then applied to scenarios that address changes in air temperatures, riparian forest cover and stream discharge. Modelling results indicate that stream temperatures are sensitive to changes in air temperatures and riparian forest cover and that higher discharge volume mitigates those impacts. Modelled stream maximum weekly average temperatures (MWAT) increased by 1.5-2.3°C in response to an air temperature increases of 3.5°C under low flow conditions (drought) but by only 0.9-2.0°C under moderate flow. Complete removal of riparian forest in a large-scale forest fire would increase MWAT by 2.2-5.9°C in low discharges and by 1.0-4.4°C under moderate discharge. Riparian zone reforestation would decrease MWATs by less than 0.8°C, a modest change reflecting high existing shade on the modelled stream reaches. Comparison of identical climate and land cover change scenarios under low and moderate discharge conditions reveals that efforts to conserve stream discharge volume could be an effective mechanism to mitigate stream temperature increases.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 88%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 77%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 87%

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Stream Temperature Impacts Because of Changes in Air Temperature, Land Cover and Stream Discharge: Navarro River Watershed, California, USA

Woltemade

Hawkins

2016

River Res. Applic.

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“…Some studies have already demonstrated observed declines in survival, population abundance, hybridization, and distribution shifts for cold‐water species (Bassar, Letcher, Nislow, & Whiteley, ; Isaak et al., ). Restoring riparian vegetation, especially in forested areas, may help to lessen climate change effects by shading streams from solar radiation and heat exchange (Battin et al., ; Bond, Stubblefield, & Van Kirk, ; Justice et al., ). Justice et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies have already demonstrated observed declines in survival, population abundance, hybridization, and distribution shifts for cold-water species (Bassar, Letcher, Nislow, & Whiteley, 2016;Isaak et al, 2012). Restoring riparian vegetation, especially in forested areas, may help to lessen climate change effects by shading streams from solar radiation and heat exchange (Battin et al, 2007;Bond, Stubblefield, & Van Kirk, 2015;Justice et al, 2017). Justice et al (2017) demonstrated that riparian restoration may result in substantial water temperature reductions and increases in Chinook salmon populations in comparison to current conditions, even under scenarios of substantial warming.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

DeWeber

Wagner

2018

Global Change Biology

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Predictions of the projected changes in species distributions and potential adaptation action benefits can help guide conservation actions. There is substantial uncertainty in projecting species distributions into an unknown future, however, which can undermine confidence in predictions or misdirect conservation actions if not properly considered. Recent studies have shown that the selection of alternative climate metrics describing very different climatic aspects (e.g., mean air temperature vs. mean precipitation) can be a substantial source of projection uncertainty. It is unclear, however, how much projection uncertainty might stem from selecting among highly correlated, ecologically similar climate metrics (e.g., maximum temperature in July, maximum 30-day temperature) describing the same climatic aspect (e.g., maximum temperatures) known to limit a species' distribution. It is also unclear how projection uncertainty might propagate into predictions of the potential benefits of adaptation actions that might lessen climate change effects. We provide probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty stemming from the selection of four maximum temperature metrics for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), a cold-water salmonid of conservation concern in the eastern United States. Projected losses in suitable stream length varied by as much as 20% among alternative maximum temperature metrics for mid-century climate projections, which was similar to variation among three climate models. Similarly, the regional average predicted increase in brook trout occurrence probability under an adaptation action scenario of full riparian forest restoration varied by as much as .2 among metrics. Our use of Bayesian inference provides probabilistic measures of vulnerability and adaptation action benefits for individual stream reaches that properly address statistical uncertainty and can help guide conservation actions. Our study demonstrates that even relatively small differences in the definitions of climate metrics can result in very different projections and reveal high uncertainty in predicted climate change effects.

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Individual‐based simulations suggest mixed impacts of warmer temperatures and a nonnative predator on Chinook salmon

et al. 2020

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As the climate changes, warmer water temperatures may stress populations of native coldwater fishes. Simultaneously, nonnative warmwater predators may expand their ranges and interact with already at‐risk native fish populations. To explore the independent and combined effects of these two stressors on threatened salmon, we present a case study of simulated Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha and largemouth bass Micropterus salmoides interacting under two thermal regimes in the Snoqualmie River, Washington, USA. We applied an individual‐based and spatially explicit model that tracks fish movement and growth. We evaluated changes in Chinook salmon emergence date, outmigration date, mass, and survival. We ran simulations for four scenarios: (1) Baseline, run without either stressor, (2) Warm, run with warmer temperatures, (3) Predator, run with largemouth bass, and (4) Warm‐Predator, run with both stressors. We assessed outcome metrics relative to the Baseline scenario. In the Warm scenario, salmon emerged 37 d and outmigrated 55 d earlier. There were 61% more subyearling migrants that were 31% smaller, and 72% fewer yearlings. In the Predator scenario, salmon survival decreased 64% for subyearlings and 69% for yearlings, and subyearlings were 7% smaller. In the Warm‐Predator scenario, salmon emerged 39 d and outmigrated 59 d earlier, subyearling survival increased 22%, subyearling mass decreased 37%, and 93% fewer yearlings survived. Our results suggest that warmer temperatures shift emergence and outmigration; predation by nonnative species is a threat to salmon survival; and life history strategies experience these stressors in different ways. Whereas subyearling production benefited from warmer temperatures more than it was hurt by predation, yearling production was depressed by both stressors independently and combined. Managers can use our individual‐based and spatially explicit approach to identify key times and areas to address exposure to extreme temperatures, overlap with nonnative species, and their interactive effects on threatened salmon. Our case study addressed three pressing needs identified in the literature: investigate impacts of nonnative species on threatened native salmon, build tools to evaluate management options where bass and salmon overlap, and explore how freshwater fishes will contend with multiple interactive stressors.

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Sensitivity of summer stream temperatures to climate variability and riparian reforestation strategies

Cited by 29 publications

References 39 publications

Stream Temperature Impacts Because of Changes in Air Temperature, Land Cover and Stream Discharge: Navarro River Watershed, California, USA

Stream Temperature Impacts Because of Changes in Air Temperature, Land Cover and Stream Discharge: Navarro River Watershed, California, USA

Probabilistic measures of climate change vulnerability, adaptation action benefits, and related uncertainty from maximum temperature metric selection

Individual‐based simulations suggest mixed impacts of warmer temperatures and a nonnative predator on Chinook salmon

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