Sensitivity of Regulated Streamflow Regimes to Interannual Climate Variability

Ferrazzi, Marta; Vivian, Roberto; Botter, Gianluca

doi:10.1029/2019ef001250

Cited by 8 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 64 publications

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“…This suggests that reservoirs will typically have a small influence on the seasonal timing of annual minimum flows across our study sites, although they may affect the magnitude of those flows. This finding is consistent with previous studies which determined that low‐flow timing is more strongly controlled by climate than by human activities in US and Swiss catchments (Ferrazzi et al., 2019; Floriancic et al., 2020; Sadri et al., 2016). We caution the reader that this analysis is not comprehensive as it was only done for 33 catchments where we had information on the timing of dam construction.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Seasonality and Drivers of Low Flows Across Europe and the United States

Floriancic

Berghuijs

Molnár

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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Low river flows can negatively impact society and the riverine environment. Thus, it is useful to predict their seasonal timing and reveal their main drivers. The typical timing of low flows varies between regions, yet systematic overviews across Europe and the United States are rare.Here, we identify regional patterns of the seasonal timing of annual minimum flows, and the consistency of that timing, across 1860 European and US catchments. Catchments where low flows typically occur during late summer or winter tend to have more consistent low-flow timings.We compare the timing of annual low flows with that of potential climatic drivers. Low flows in 89% of the European and 86% of the US catchments exhibit statistically significant (p<0.05) overlap in timing with at least one potential climatic driver. In most catchments, low flows tend to occur during the warm season, reflecting a period of high potential evapotranspiration exceeding precipitation. In the higher-elevation European Alps, Scandinavia, the Rocky Mountains, and the Upper Midwest and Plains states, low flows mostly occur during winter as a result of freezing temperatures which inhibit snowmelt. Binomial statistics also enabled us to statistically exclude individual climatic drivers for certain regions. The regional patterns of timings and drivers of low flows across Europe and the contiguous US can inform low-flow management, provide context for the evolution of low flows under climate change, and point to processes that require attention in future low-flow research.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Seasonality and Drivers of Low Flows Across Europe and the United States

Floriancic

Berghuijs

Molnár

et al. 2021

Water Resources Research

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“…Taken from another perspective, water availability alone controls about 2.5% and 5% of the annual production costs and CO 2 emissions. The trickle‐down effect of ENSO on power system performance is likely a consequence of the sensitivity of regulated streamflow regimes to seasonal and interannual hydroclimatic variability (Ferrazzi et al., 2019). In theory, one would expect dams to smoothen inflow variability, thereby providing a steady electricity supply.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…streamflow regimes to seasonal and hydroclimatic (Ferrazzi et al, 2019). In theory, one would expect dams to inflow variability, thereby providing a electricity supply.…”

Section: >-@mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions

et al. 2021

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The Greater Mekong Subregion is a transnational area bound together by the Mekong River basin and its immense hydropower resources, historically seen as the backbone of regional economic development. The basin is now punctuated by several dams, successful in attracting both international investors and fierce criticisms for their environmental and societal impacts. Surprisingly, no attention has been paid so far to the actual performance of these infrastructures: is hydropower supply robust with respect to the hydroclimatic variability characterizing Southeast Asia? When water availability is altered, what are the implications for power production costs and CO2 emissions? To answer these questions, we focus on the Laotian–Thai grid—the first international power‐trade infrastructure developed in the region—and use a power system model driven by a spatially distributed hydrological‐water management model. Simulation results over a 30‐year period show that production costs and carbon footprint are significantly affected by droughts, which reduce hydropower availability and increase reliance on thermoelectric resources. Regional droughts across the Mekong basin are of particular concern, as they reduce the export of cheap hydropower from Laos to Thailand. To put the analysis into a broader climate‐water‐energy context, we show that the El Niño Southern Oscillation modulates not only the summer monsoon, but also the power system behavior, shaping the relationship between hydroclimatological conditions, power production costs, and CO2 emissions. Overall, our results and models provide a knowledge basis for informing robust management strategies at the water‐energy scale and designing more sustainable power plans in the Greater Mekong Subregion.

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“…This indicates that the flood risk becomes higher in the basin although the results suggest a reduction in drought risk. Generally, the existing infrastructures will be tuned to historical hydrologic regimes and unable to cope effectively with the more variable future climate (Ferrazzi, Vivian, & Botter, 2019; Georgakakos et al, 2012).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

Gopalan

Hanasaki

Champathong

et al. 2020

Hydrological Processes

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Climate change adaptation has become the current focus of research due to the remarkable potential of climate change to alter the spatial and temporal distribution of global water availability. Although reservoir operation is a potential adaptation option, earlier studies explicitly demonstrated only its historical quantitative effects. Therefore, this article evaluated the possibility of reservoir operation from an adaptation viewpoint for regulating the future flow using the H08 global hydrological model with the Chao Phraya River basin as a case study. This basin is the largest river system in Thailand and has often been affected by extreme weather challenges in the past. Future climate scenarios were constructed from the bias‐corrected outputs of three general circulation models from 2080 to 2099 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The important conclusions that can be drawn from this study are as follows: (i) the operation of existing and hypothetical (i.e., construction under planning) reservoirs cannot reduce the future high flows below the channel carrying capacity, although it can increase low flows in the basin. This indicates that changes in the magnitude of future high flow due to climate change are likely to be larger than those achieved by reservoir operation and there is a need for other adaptation options. (ii) A combination of reservoir operation and afforestation was considered as an adaptation strategy, but the magnitude of the discharge reduction in the wet season was still smaller than the increase caused by warming. This further signifies the necessity of combining other structural, as well as non‐structural, measures. Overall, this adaptation approach for assessing the effect of reservoir operation in reducing the climate change impacts using H08 model can be applied not only in the study area but also in other places where climate change signals are robust.

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Sensitivity of Regulated Streamflow Regimes to Interannual Climate Variability

Cited by 8 publications

References 64 publications

Seasonality and Drivers of Low Flows Across Europe and the United States

Seasonality and Drivers of Low Flows Across Europe and the United States

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

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Sensitivity of Regulated Streamflow Regimes to Interannual Climate Variability

Cited by 8 publications

References 64 publications

Seasonality and Drivers of Low Flows Across Europe and the United States

Seasonality and Drivers of Low Flows Across Europe and the United States

The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO2 Emissions

Impact assessment of reservoir operation in the context of climate change adaptation in the Chao Phraya River basin

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The Greater Mekong's Climate‐Water‐Energy Nexus: How ENSO‐Triggered Regional Droughts Affect Power Supply and CO₂ Emissions