2020
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13455
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Sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across the United States

Abstract: Primary production, a key regulator of the global carbon cycle, is highly responsive to variations in climate. Yet, a detailed, continental-scale risk assessment of climate-related impacts on primary production is lacking. We combined 16 years of MODIS NDVI data, a remotely sensed proxy for primary production, with observations from 1218 climate stations to derive values of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation and aridity. For the first time, we produced an empirically-derived map of ecosystem sensitivity to… Show more

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Cited by 121 publications
(138 citation statements)
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References 79 publications
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“…This is especially true in grasslands, an ecosystem covering ~37% of Earth’s surface that provides many ecosystem services from livestock forage to carbon sequestration (White et al 2000). Although many grassland organisms are accustomed to limited (and variable) precipitation (Knapp et al 2002), climate models predict increased precipitation variability in grasslands (Maurer et al 2020). Reduced precipitation decreases plant biomass (Heisler‐White et al 2009), but increased precipitation variability and soil water content can promote plant diversity (Knapp et al 2002).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This is especially true in grasslands, an ecosystem covering ~37% of Earth’s surface that provides many ecosystem services from livestock forage to carbon sequestration (White et al 2000). Although many grassland organisms are accustomed to limited (and variable) precipitation (Knapp et al 2002), climate models predict increased precipitation variability in grasslands (Maurer et al 2020). Reduced precipitation decreases plant biomass (Heisler‐White et al 2009), but increased precipitation variability and soil water content can promote plant diversity (Knapp et al 2002).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Linear and nonlinear models (exponential, logarithmic, and unimodal model) were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC) values to determine the most appropriate model for correlating mean ANPP with MAP. ANPP sensitivity was assessed by correlating annual precipitation with ANPP over time for each site, and the resulting slopes were then regressed against MAP to determine how sensitivity of ANPP changed with MAP (Huxman et al, 2004;Maurer et al, 2020). To assess how ecosystems responded to wet versus dry years, we tested the relationships Knapp and Smith (2001).…”
Section: Discussionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Linear and nonlinear models (exponential, logarithmic, and unimodal model) were compared using Akaike information criterion (AIC) values to determine the most appropriate model for correlating mean ANPP with MAP. ANPP sensitivity was assessed by correlating annual precipitation with ANPP over time for each site, and the resulting slopes were then regressed against MAP to determine how sensitivity of ANPP changed with MAP (Huxman et al, 2004; Maurer et al, 2020). To assess how ecosystems responded to wet versus dry years, we tested the relationships between relative precipitation maxima [Precipitation max = (maximum − mean)/mean] and relative ANPP pulses [ANPP pulse = (maximum − mean)/mean] for the wettest year and between relative precipitation minima [Precipitation min = (mean − minimum)/mean] and relative ANPP decline [ANPP decline = (mean − minimum)/mean] for the driest year, following Knapp and Smith (2001).…”
Section: Methodsmentioning
confidence: 99%
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“…As one of the main terrestrial ecosystems, grasslands occupy more than 30% of the terrestrial area (Parton et al, 2012), and they are important for biodiversity, economics, biogeochemical cycles and energy transformation (Huang et al, 2010;Bai et al, 2012). Grasslands are sensitive to climate change compared with the forests (IPCC, 2003;Gherardi and Sala, 2015;Eziz et al, 2017;Maurer et al, 2020). Although there is no consistent conclusion on the climate change rate, range and area, the general pattern is that it will be moister in the south part and drier in the north part of China (Zhao et al, 2013).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%