Sensitivity of physical lake processes to climate change within a large Precambrian Shield catchment

Crossman, Jill; Eimers, M. Catherine; Kerr, Jason G.; Yao, Huaxia

doi:10.1002/hyp.10915

Cited by 16 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…2.3 for details). Hindcast simulations were forced with meteorology from ERA-Interim gridded reanalyses produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (Dee et al, 2011). Using this meteorological forcing as a basis for the model calibration was preferred over using (i) in situ me- teorology, as the future projections are obtained by forcing FLake with a gridded simulation product rather than in situ information, and (ii) the EURO-CORDEX reanalysis downscaling simulations, as calibrated model parameters would in that case differ between model projections.…”

Section: Model Set-up and Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Shatwell

Thiery

Kirillin

2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalizations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover, and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10-0.11 • C decade −1 , which is 75 %-90 % of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5-2.2 and 1.4-1.8 days decade −1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed-layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By midcentury, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20 %, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensi-tivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention. Recent studies highlighted that lakes respond quite individually to climate change. Although surface water temperature (T s ) is perhaps the most predictable indicator of warming , trends in T s remain highly variable at a global scale (O'Reilly et al., 2015). Deep water temperatures respond less predictably to warming and have been Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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Section: Model Set-up and Calibrationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Shatwell

Thiery

Kirillin

2019

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…This was evident in our simulations because, at the same annual mean air temperature, lakes were colder in years with ice cover (dimictic regime) than in years without ice (monomictic regime). This can be explained in part by the thermal inertia from the previous season (Crossman et al, 2016), and in part due to altered…”

Section: Influence Of Seasonality and Stratificationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Shatwell¹,

Thiery²,

Kirillin³

2018

Preprint

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Abstract. The physical response of lakes to climate warming is regionally variable and highly dependent on individual lake characteristics, making generalisations about their development difficult. To qualify the role of individual lake characteristics in their response to regionally homogeneous warming, we simulated temperature, ice cover and mixing in four intensively studied German lakes of varying morphology and mixing regime with a one-dimensional lake model. We forced the model with an ensemble of 12 climate projections (RCP4.5) up to 2100. The lakes were projected to warm at 0.10–0.11 °C decade−1, which is 75–90 % of the projected air temperature trend. In simulations, surface temperatures increased strongly in winter and spring, but little or not at all in summer and autumn. Mean bottom temperatures were projected to increase in all lakes, with steeper trends in winter and in shallower lakes. Modelled ice thaw and summer stratification advanced by 1.5–2.2 and 1.4–1.8 d decade−1 respectively, whereas autumn turnover and winter freeze timing was less sensitive. The projected summer mixed layer depth was unaffected by warming but sensitive to changes in water transparency. By mid-century, the frequency of ice and stratification-free winters was projected to increase by about 20 %, making ice cover rare and shifting the two deeper dimictic lakes to a predominantly monomictic regime. The polymictic lake was unlikely to become dimictic by the end of the century. A sensitivity analysis predicted that decreasing transparency would dampen the effect of warming on mean temperature but amplify its effect on stratification. However, this interaction was only predicted to occur in clear lakes, and not in the study lakes at their historical transparency. Not only lake morphology, but also mixing regime determines how heat is stored and ultimately how lakes respond to climate warming. Seasonal differences in climate warming rates are thus important and require more attention.

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“…Surface temperature influences lake mixing regimes (Kraemer et al ; Michelutti et al ) and the propensity for thermal stratification (Rempfer et al ). Greater surface temperatures allow stratification to develop earlier and last longer (Crossman et al ). These effects can increase stability of the water column, limiting mixing generated from wind or nocturnal convective cooling (Butcher et al ; Sahoo et al ).…”

Section: Reported Rates Of Lake Surface Temperature Increase and Diffmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating lake–climate responses from sparse data: An application to high elevation lakes

Christianson

Johnson

Hooten

et al. 2019

Limnology & Oceanography

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Although many studies demonstrate lake warming, few document trends from lakes with sparse data. Diel and seasonal variability of surface temperatures limit conventional trend analyses to datasets with frequent repeated observations. Thus, remote lakes, including many high elevation lakes, are underrepresented in trend analyses. We used a Bayesian technique to analyze sparse data that explicitly incorporated diel and seasonal variability. This approach allowed us to estimate lake warming in a region of limited knowledge: high elevation lakes (> 2100 m ASL) of the Southern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A. The analysis allowed for inclusion of lakes with few repeated measurements, and observations made before 1980 when more intensive lake monitoring began. We accumulated the largest dataset of high elevation lake temperatures analyzed to date. Data from 590 high elevation lakes in the Southern Rocky Mountains showed a 0.13 C decade −1 increase in surface temperatures and a 14% increase in seasonal degree days since 1955. This result is lower than other regional and global estimates of lake warming; however, it is similar to other high elevation lake studies. Our approach can be applied to other understudied regions, increasing our overall understanding of the effects of climate change on lakes and their temporal dynamics.

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Sensitivity of physical lake processes to climate change within a large Precambrian Shield catchment

Cited by 16 publications

References 40 publications

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Future projections of temperature and mixing regime of European temperate lakes

Estimating lake–climate responses from sparse data: An application to high elevation lakes

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